Wooden Spoon Favourites for 2018 with bookies?

[colmcd]

Its hard to predict the ladder and who will finish in front of who at this point, but i'm fairly confident we'll at least finish ahead of the Titans, Bulldogs, Saints and Newcastle at the least. Newcastle are receiving quite a lot of love atm. I think they will improve and get themselves off the bottom of table, but they won't play finals imo. Atm id say we're 50-50.

Best analysis so far. I am guessing we will be at 11th.

Looking at this years Grand final and the campaign I have seen two things:
Teams with good attack can get to the eight.
Teams with Great defense will have a shot at the premireship.

Melbourne ripped the Cowboys because the Cowboys could not defend. Their forwards were TOUGH, but you saw gaps all over their line in defense. Melbourne were dirty (Cam Smith loves doing the Squirrel Grip) but they toughed it out against a very big pack.

Our team is too new to gel in defense. Knowing where our fellow players will be, will appear and will walk. If we start working on it now we will go well in 2019 but we need to start now.

 

[cqtiger]

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.

 

[TCL]

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.

I agree, Woods and Teddy going would be a major reason why.

 

[innsaneink]

Bookies playing it safe there will be teams double those odds a few weeks into the season… And odds slashed as well

 

[Tim Sheens]

Computers and their algorithms in the main are creating a market that a coach who seems to prioritise the advice of his own eyes and ears over broadsheets of statistics will seek to overcome. With the prevalent human element of the game and a reasonably clean slate as a base, I am backing the coach.

 

[upthetigers]

I think a lot will depend on Brooks and Lolohea. There's no doubt we will be more competitive next season but will we win those grinding close games? We have to in order to make the 8.

 

[kingbrooks]

A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.

We will obviously be better with more depth when someone is injured which is our biggest strength. There is not a single player who if they get injured we can't cover, while this year we were cringing at the thought of losing certain players.

 

[earl]

I'm not surprised that we are spoon favourites but I also think the teams are all pretty close. The difference between the top and bottom team is not huge. It's more about being consistent throughout the season. We don't do that.

I'll just wait and see how we go but I wouldn't be surprised if we make the finals next season.

 

[magpiecol]

I wonder what the Cowboys odds would have been if the Saints had beaten the Dogs.

We will go ok.

 

[WestsBenTigers]

A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.

How very wrong you are!

MM won't be starting hooker

Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

We lack strike players: Nofoaluma, LoLo, Aloiai, Sue, Fonua, Marsters, Suli - Tell me any one of these players is not a strike player

 

[851]

Teams who beat us at 6: Brisbane, Melbourne, Roosters, Cronulla, Manly, Cowboys, Warriors, Dragons

At 6 we are 9th at worst

At 7 we would lose to: Rooseters, Manly, Penrith, Cowboys, Dragons, Warriors, Souths

We are 8th at worst at halfback

So we are 'average' in the halves

Love your confidence, but I would have a few more in front of Brooks, Taylor, Townsend, Moses for starters, Brisbane could end up with Bird at 6 Milford at 7, Maloney could end up at 7 for Newcastle, Croft showed plenty at the storm this year, Seizer isn't too bad either.
Brooks has a lot riding on him next year, another year like the last few and he might be heading to the ESL, I would love him to come good, but geez I am sick of the false dawns, next year is his year stuff.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.

How very wrong you are!

MM won't be starting hooker

Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

We lack strike players: Nofoaluma, LoLo, Aloiai, Sue, Fonua, Marsters, Suli - Tell me any one of these players is not a strike player

How do they stack up against other clubs strike players though?

 

[kiwitiger]

A improved roster for 2018, but we are rightfully in the mix for 2018 for the spoon.

Without having a go, we probably have the weakest fullback and halfback in the competition. And if MM is the starting hooker, we probably also have the weakest hooker in the comp. This culminates in the worst spine in the competition with 1.Lolo 6.Reynolds 7.Brooks 9.MM/Liddle. We also still lack strike players in the backs/edge backrowers.

How very wrong you are!

MM won't be starting hooker

Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

We lack strike players: Nofoaluma, LoLo, Aloiai, Sue, Fonua, Marsters, Suli - Tell me any one of these players is not a strike player

None of them are strike players at the moment. Aloiai masters suli have potential. Sue is a player with potential 3 years ago. Nofo has weaknesses on d. Lolo is going to play a position he has only played 6 times in fg and u20\. Strike players are like our x #1 or thursten or Slater proven. None of them are.

 

[240z]

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.

Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.

 

[WestsBenTigers]

Teams who beat us at 6: Brisbane, Melbourne, Roosters, Cronulla, Manly, Cowboys, Warriors, Dragons

At 6 we are 9th at worst

At 7 we would lose to: Rooseters, Manly, Penrith, Cowboys, Dragons, Warriors, Souths

We are 8th at worst at halfback

So we are 'average' in the halves

Love your confidence, but I would have a few more in front of Brooks, Taylor, Townsend, Moses for starters, Brisbane could end up with Bird at 6 Milford at 7, Maloney could end up at 7 for Newcastle, Croft showed plenty at the storm this year, Seizer isn't too bad either.
Brooks has a lot riding on him next year, another year like the last few and he might be heading to the ESL, I would love him to come good, but geez I am sick of the false dawns, next year is his year stuff.

You could look at it that way, but DCE and Johnson could play 6

There are lots of variables, age/experience, forward pack, coaches, halves partner etc.
At the moment Brooks haven't had many of these advantages that other halves have. I think this year we will have a good asses,net of Brooks because he will have a whole pre-season with Hodgo, Cleary, Reynolds and Benji as well as a forward pack who will go FOWARD

Come back after 6 rounds of 2018 and see where Brooks ranks in NRL Halfbacks

 

[Tigerdon]

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.

Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.

Looks like we are stuffed then.

 

[WestsBenTigers]

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.

Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.

Looks like we are stuffed then.

Didn't they have Penrith the same chance to win the comp as Melbourne…

Don't give up hope yet

 

[Tigerdon]

Bookies don't run their business using emotion.
They look at this year and where we finished and then take in players coming and going.

The stark reality is we finished 2017 at the low end of the table and have since lost our two rep players in Woods and Tedesco as well as Moses.

Time will tell and bookies are quick to change odds.

Having worked for the TAB for 6 years I got to know the guys that set the markets very well. They are all actuaries with Degrees in mathematics from the best universities in Sydney. They look at stats, historical views and each player to the ent degree. They have a massive mainframe computer that does all their calculations for them. They have zero (part of the job spec) allegiance to any team or player. All emotion is taken out of the equation. They don't get it correct every time but they better than any of us even on a good day.

Looks like we are stuffed then.

Didn't they have Penrith the same chance to win the comp as Melbourne…

Don't give up hope yet

Yep, you're right. The Rocket surgeons don't always get in it correct.
Too many unforeseen factors that stray outside the algorithms

 

[LCA]

If nothing else the OP has generated 3 pages of responses. But….really?

I haven't seen the market but I would be pretty sure that the odds would be very conservative at this early stage of betting. Convert those odds to percentages and you will get a good sense of how the odds makers would be protecting their backsides.

I think it means two-thirds of three-quarters of bugger all tbh.

It's gonna be a looooong off season it seems.

 

[voice_of_reason]

How very wrong you are!
Our spine is above average and has potential to be great.

I never cease to smile when I read your posts Ben - the future support of West Tigers is secure with fans like you. Keep it up young man - one day you'll be rewarded with a premiership.