The Dogs are definitely beatable and we have the ability to do it. We have shown for long periods that we are up to speed in many facets of the game. However, we are our own worst enemy as we go away from the game plan when we start to make mistakes with the ball in hand.
It will be hard yards against their edges, which is where their strike is; however, we were able to contain both the Sharks and Eels and also had the measure of Penrith for good parts of that game. It is definitely within them to win this game.
When we are playing well there are a couple of themes (although we did cause ourselves plenty of trouble with the ball in hand against the Eels at one stage). When our kick chase is on so are we, the key to winning is to have the Dogs on the back foot coming out of their end all day. When our completion rates are high we can match it wtih most teams, when our completion rate is low we tend to go away from the game plan and get a bit panicky. The key to winning this weekend is:
- Kick Chase: kick well and deep to nullify their edge attack. We have the pack to dominate the middle corridor this week and if we do they will finish their sets in poor to average field position. The chase is a critical enabler.
- Kick Pressure: Burton's kicks are a real weapon and we can expect him to try and kick a 40/20 or two and throw some floating bombs at Bula. His big boot will be hard to nullify; if he is given time he will make life misery for us.
- Defend the crash ball: Mahoney has good slight of hand and is almost as capable as Api in his ability to draw a forward through the defence on the line.
- High execution rates: Our intensity with ball in hand needs to be high, but secure. We also need to limit the silly penalties that gifts the ball to the opposition. When we execute well with the ball in hand we tend to execute the overall game plan well. When we turn over the ball and lose the possession battle we start to fall off tackles and struggle to get back into the game. We simply aren't disciplined enough to stick with the game plan when we are facing adversity. We showed some resilliance agains the Eels, but it is not something we want to rely on.
I expect I will throw a few beer tokens on our boys this weekend.