Shipbuilding Osborne Naval Shipyard South Aust

[BZN]

We await the reaction from Bejiing.

This is beaten wife syndrome. Did Beijing await our reaction when they increased their military spending by a third in the last 5 years? When they recently boosted their nuke stockpile? When they tried to take over the whole South China Sea? When they launch daily air force incursions into Taiwanese and Japanese territory? When they decided to occupy areas of Bhutan, and tried to do the same in Indian border areas? When they launch industrial scale repression on minorities like Uighurs and Tibetans? When they launch hacking attacks on our parliament, universities, businesses? Their hacking of the BoM supercomputer cost the Australian taxpayer a fortune. What about when they launched a trade war against us, that is still ongoing? What about when Australian journalists had to flee an attempt at 'hostage diplomacy'? Not to mention my strong suspicion that they tried to cover up the leak of a certain virus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

In summary, why should we care at all what Beijing thinks?

Great post @TillLindemann.
None of the Chinese spies would need to wear disguise to sneak around would they, cause all Chinese people look the same.

 

[trentrunciman]

NZ is riding on the back of Aust. While our country is pouring the extra billions of dollars into Defence, NZ knows that they will benefit from this new alliance as well, Because it will be in the best interest of Aust. to defend NZ from any future foreign attacks. If Aust. is attacked then NZ is gone, but no country will attack NZ without also knowing that this would also mean attacking Aust, And this security for NZ should not be given for free.

Really if China wants to attack they will. This is just a photo op for a few polies after a rough 2 years. Do you think the announcement of this will prevent a Chinese invasion? Oh they will have these subs in 10 years time? Crap we better put off those invasion plans.
Really if they were keen you have told them to do it in the next few years.
This is a photo op.

Media seem to be stoking McCarthyism style red scare. Generates views I suppose.

So.......Hong Kong didnt happen? Xi threats to take Taiwan by force in 2019 didnt happen? Belt and Road isnt happening? The South China Sea Islands didnt just appear? China/US trade war?

Nothing to see here?

No, they’re all real issues. Not to mention issues like Xinjiang, the destruction of old town in Kashgar was especially depressing but my point is you could make a case about many countries and their potential geopolitical “threats”. Kevin Rudd said something which alludes to my point and that we need to look at the issue in a global context rather than an issue with China/Russia. As I’ve said before to be careful falling into the Thucydian trap.

The issues with HK and Taiwan according to locals is actually quite polarising. There are many locals who don’t mind China. I was there in 2019. Western media I’m assuming is what you watch mostly depicts the issues differently.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Given yesterday's speculation about what type of reactor will be used for our new submarines, Rolls Royce share price rose after the AUKUS announcement. Maybe the share markets know something we don't?

 

[Tiger5150]

NZ is riding on the back of Aust. While our country is pouring the extra billions of dollars into Defence, NZ knows that they will benefit from this new alliance as well, Because it will be in the best interest of Aust. to defend NZ from any future foreign attacks. If Aust. is attacked then NZ is gone, but no country will attack NZ without also knowing that this would also mean attacking Aust, And this security for NZ should not be given for free.

Really if China wants to attack they will. This is just a photo op for a few polies after a rough 2 years. Do you think the announcement of this will prevent a Chinese invasion? Oh they will have these subs in 10 years time? Crap we better put off those invasion plans.
Really if they were keen you have told them to do it in the next few years.
This is a photo op.

Media seem to be stoking McCarthyism style red scare. Generates views I suppose.

So.......Hong Kong didnt happen? Xi threats to take Taiwan by force in 2019 didnt happen? Belt and Road isnt happening? The South China Sea Islands didnt just appear? China/US trade war?

Nothing to see here?

No, they’re all real issues. Not to mention issues like Xinjiang, the destruction of old town in Kashgar was especially depressing but my point is you could make a case about many countries and their potential geopolitical “threats”. Kevin Rudd said something which alludes to my point and that we need to look at the issue in a global context rather than an issue with China/Russia. As I’ve said before to be careful falling into the Thucydian trap.

The issues with HK and Taiwan according to locals is actually quite polarising. There are many locals who don’t mind China. I was there in 2019. Western media I’m assuming is what you watch mostly depicts the issues differently.

Of course thats true that I (and most of us) see through western eyes and I have some experience of this (from an Eastern Europe POV). I also understand the point about looking at the global context however IMO the global context looks even more problematic for the future of livingpeacefully with China. The decline of US Hegemony, China's increased expansionism, internal pressures on China (population, food security, growing wealth class), decentralisation of institutions, energy security, Chinas increased sabre rattling, Chinas repeated human rights abuses. None of these things point to an easier, more peaceful future with China.

China is of course aware of all of this and recognise that this is their moment.

Appreciate the sensible and balanced conversation, but might be better in POlitics Thread.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Another good article from USNI News. This is the second in two days which is a good indicator of the significance of the announcement.

The Department of Defence was spending too much time and money on incremental improvements to the Attack Class (diesel electric sub) and if you want fundamental step changes in submarine performance you have to go to nuclear propulsion.

https://news.usni.org/2021/09/16/french-attack-boat-design-costs-opened-door-to-nuclear-australian-sub-says-expert

 

[Don Kershane]

Just get on with the deal. We don't need boofheads like Dutton loud mouthing to China (for domestic consumption] just to upstage Morrison and wedge Labor before he has his next tilt at the leadership. Morrison laying the groundwork for a Children Overboard type scare campaign and will try to out shout Dutton at every opportunity . Not looking forward to being exposed to the drivel coming our way from these two.

 

[BZN]

NZ is riding on the back of Aust. While our country is pouring the extra billions of dollars into Defence, NZ knows that they will benefit from this new alliance as well, Because it will be in the best interest of Aust. to defend NZ from any future foreign attacks. If Aust. is attacked then NZ is gone, but no country will attack NZ without also knowing that this would also mean attacking Aust, And this security for NZ should not be given for free.

Really if China wants to attack they will. This is just a photo op for a few polies after a rough 2 years. Do you think the announcement of this will prevent a Chinese invasion? Oh they will have these subs in 10 years time? Crap we better put off those invasion plans.
Really if they were keen you have told them to do it in the next few years.
This is a photo op.

Media seem to be stoking McCarthyism style red scare. Generates views I suppose.

It's not just the media doing it on their own, rather politically driven. Our PM wears his flag style mask mainly to appeal to a certain male cohort and amplify a stance, which we are about to see an expansion of with xenophobia at the forefront of an election campaign strategy.

Happy if time proves me wrong and hope that you and others won't be subjected to hate on the back of an escalation I am sure is coming.

The submarine bit is basically just another announcement lacking substance at this point and much more so posturing.

Naval shipbuilding, new shipyards and refit facilities have always been subject to politics. Osborne Naval Shipyard in Adelaide and the BAE Systems facility at Henderson in WA are good examples.

The problems with the French sub programme have lead us to this point. 8 years of difficulties with no replacement in sight for the Collins Class. Our serviceman and women deserve better. A joke doing the rounds is the French idea of local content is an Adelaide pizza bar.

At this stage, a proven design, most likely the RN Astute with a US combat system will be selected. It is proven, in-service and the operational requirement is to have the boats in service as quickly as can be arranged.

Strategically, we are likely to see more US troops and even subs based in Australia. At present, there is a UK Carrier taskforce in/around the South China Sea.

Instead of the French making s/a jokes about our pizza bars input, they should be over here making the pizzas for us considering what Our Diggers did for them in the 2nd WW.

 

[Tiger5150]

Just get on with the deal. We don't need boofheads like Dutton loud mouthing to China (for domestic consumption] just to upstage Morrison and wedge Labor before he has his next tilt at the leadership. Morrison laying the groundwork for a Children Overboard type scare campaign and will try to out shout Dutton at every opportunity . Not looking forward to being exposed to the drivel coming our way from these two.

Agree with this 1000%. I’m a strong believer in my life as well as my kids that you walk silently and see carry a big stick. It’s always the quiet ones you have to worry about and the big talkers are usually nervous. If you wanted to make a statement to China the best way would just announce you bought the subs and shut up.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The Chief of Navy speaking which is informative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WYuGu5QNDA

 

[Magpie_Magic]

Just get on with the deal. We don't need boofheads like Dutton loud mouthing to China (for domestic consumption] just to upstage Morrison and wedge Labor before he has his next tilt at the leadership. Morrison laying the groundwork for a Children Overboard type scare campaign and will try to out shout Dutton at every opportunity . Not looking forward to being exposed to the drivel coming our way from these two.

Agree with this 1000%. I’m a strong believer in my life as well as my kids that you walk silently and see carry a big stick. It’s always the quiet ones you have to worry about and the big talkers are usually nervous. If you wanted to make a statement to China the best way would just announce you bought the subs and shut up.

And sadly we didn't walk silently and the only statement we made to China is that we are just a mega proxie and mouthpiece for the US and sold out any little leverage we had with their foreign policy regards how it affects us while Morrison wears masks probably made in China to protect him from the China virus.

Interestingly, Blinken mentioned the US will protect Australia from economic coercion from China. Yeah well iron ore is down to $107 and the American investment banks are probably shorting our dollar as we speak.

Just like a bum wipe, nobody likes proxies, despised by their adversaries and loathed by their friends

 

[Tiger5150]

Just get on with the deal. We don't need boofheads like Dutton loud mouthing to China (for domestic consumption] just to upstage Morrison and wedge Labor before he has his next tilt at the leadership. Morrison laying the groundwork for a Children Overboard type scare campaign and will try to out shout Dutton at every opportunity . Not looking forward to being exposed to the drivel coming our way from these two.

Agree with this 1000%. I’m a strong believer in my life as well as my kids that you walk silently and see carry a big stick. It’s always the quiet ones you have to worry about and the big talkers are usually nervous. If you wanted to make a statement to China the best way would just announce you bought the subs and shut up.

And sadly we didn't walk silently and the only statement we made to China is that we are just a mega proxie and mouthpiece for the US and sold out any little leverage we had with their foreign policy regards how it affects us while Morrison wears masks probably made in China to protect him from the China virus.

Interestingly, Blinken mentioned the US will protect Australia from economic coercion from China. Yeah well iron ore is down to $107 and the American investment banks are probably shorting our dollar as we speak.

Just like a bum wipe, nobody likes proxies, despised by their adversaries and loathed by their friends

Not sure how you suggest we stop being a "proxy" and get around the immutable fact that our potential enemy has a population of 1.5B, our biggest ally has a population of 350M and our population is 25M.

There will never be a day where we dont rely on allies for defence in a global conflict.

 

[Magpie_Magic]

Just get on with the deal. We don't need boofheads like Dutton loud mouthing to China (for domestic consumption] just to upstage Morrison and wedge Labor before he has his next tilt at the leadership. Morrison laying the groundwork for a Children Overboard type scare campaign and will try to out shout Dutton at every opportunity . Not looking forward to being exposed to the drivel coming our way from these two.

Agree with this 1000%. I’m a strong believer in my life as well as my kids that you walk silently and see carry a big stick. It’s always the quiet ones you have to worry about and the big talkers are usually nervous. If you wanted to make a statement to China the best way would just announce you bought the subs and shut up.

And sadly we didn't walk silently and the only statement we made to China is that we are just a mega proxie and mouthpiece for the US and sold out any little leverage we had with their foreign policy regards how it affects us while Morrison wears masks probably made in China to protect him from the China virus.

Interestingly, Blinken mentioned the US will protect Australia from economic coercion from China. Yeah well iron ore is down to $107 and the American investment banks are probably shorting our dollar as we speak.

Just like a bum wipe, nobody likes proxies, despised by their adversaries and loathed by their friends

Not sure how you suggest we stop being a "proxy" and get around the immutable fact that our potential enemy has a population of 1.5B, our biggest ally has a population of 350M and our population is 25M.

There will never be a day where we dont rely on allies for defence in a global conflict.

Yes, as you say carry a big stick but there's more of them than you can point a stick at lol. And I think they are 1.6 billion, whats 100m up or down.

But China isn't an enemy to us so much, historically China is an inward looking nation but they like Russia are contrary to US fantasies about global hegemony which most don't want anyway, global balance is a good thing in my opinion. It forces the Americans as well as the Russians and Chinese to be better to gain influence.

But we need allies and the US makes a good one, but on terms that also suit us. The submarines are a good choice but we could adopt the stance of other so called 5 eyes partners like NZ and Canada and have spent less in Iraq and Afghanistan and used the savings on a bigger military that can operate more independently. That way we would have greater leverage on the Americans regarding foreign policy in the Asia Pacific.

See, if China makes a play on Taiwan we wouldn't want to go there and we should advise the US as much. If the Americans were to try to defend Taiwan it would be like an away cricket match with local umpires, seems like they could loose the conflict or even if they win they loose because they would need to retain a presence in Taiwan forever because it's in China's front yard and they would try again. That type of posture would ruin the US economically. So sanity would probably prevail and the Americans would grind their teeth and impose sanctions......And guess who looses there.....We do especially without technology, industry etc.

So a more independent foreign policy from us allied to the US might help keep them in check.

Point is we can be more of an ally than a proxy.

 

[Tiger5150]

Just get on with the deal. We don't need boofheads like Dutton loud mouthing to China (for domestic consumption] just to upstage Morrison and wedge Labor before he has his next tilt at the leadership. Morrison laying the groundwork for a Children Overboard type scare campaign and will try to out shout Dutton at every opportunity . Not looking forward to being exposed to the drivel coming our way from these two.

Agree with this 1000%. I’m a strong believer in my life as well as my kids that you walk silently and see carry a big stick. It’s always the quiet ones you have to worry about and the big talkers are usually nervous. If you wanted to make a statement to China the best way would just announce you bought the subs and shut up.

And sadly we didn't walk silently and the only statement we made to China is that we are just a mega proxie and mouthpiece for the US and sold out any little leverage we had with their foreign policy regards how it affects us while Morrison wears masks probably made in China to protect him from the China virus.

Interestingly, Blinken mentioned the US will protect Australia from economic coercion from China. Yeah well iron ore is down to $107 and the American investment banks are probably shorting our dollar as we speak.

Just like a bum wipe, nobody likes proxies, despised by their adversaries and loathed by their friends

Not sure how you suggest we stop being a "proxy" and get around the immutable fact that our potential enemy has a population of 1.5B, our biggest ally has a population of 350M and our population is 25M.

There will never be a day where we dont rely on allies for defence in a global conflict.

Yes, as you say carry a big stick but there's more of them than you can point a stick at lol. And I think they are 1.6 billion, whats 100m up or down.

But China isn't an enemy to us so much, historically China is an inward looking nation

Historically China has been an inward looking nation, kinda but they invaded Japan and Korea and North Korea is clearly an Chinese proxy. Have you been paykng attention to what happened in Hong Kong? When XI said he would use force to annex Taiwan in 2019? The building of islands in the South China Sea? Are these the acts of an inward looking nation?

>***like Russia are*** contrary to US fantasies about global hegemony which most don't want anyway,

Um....Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia, Chechnya, Dagastan, Khazakstan, Armenia, Azerbajian, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia/H, Chechia, Slovak Republic, Poland, and half of Germany all wave hello as does my partners family who fled under gunfire as refugees from Russians who had no interest in Global hegemony.


>global balance is a good thing in my opinion. It forces the Americans as well as the Russians and Chinese to be better to gain influence.

Thats fine as a concept, but first look at the underlying principles.


But we need allies and the US makes a good one, but on terms that also suit us. The submarines are a good choice but we could adopt the stance of other so called 5 eyes partners like NZ and Canada and have spent less in Iraq and Afghanistan and used the savings on a bigger military that can operate more independently. That way we would have greater leverage on the Americans regarding foreign policy in the Asia Pacific.

I would NOT use NZ as an example in the context of 5 eyes.


See, if China makes a play on Taiwan we wouldn't want to go there and we should advise the US as much.

Seriously, why. Based on what principle.

If China makes a play on South Korea would it be worth defending? Japan?

Why not Taiwan?

>If the Americans were to try to defend Taiwan it would be like an away cricket match with local umpires, seems like they could loose the conflict or even if they win they loose because they would need to retain a presence in Taiwan forever because it's in China's front yard and they would try again. That type of posture would ruin the US economically. So sanity would probably prevail and the Americans would grind their teeth and impose sanctions......And guess who looses there.....We do especially without technology, industry etc.


So principles only matter if you can win? Thats the end of civilisation. Why do you think that China have not done a Hong Kong on Taiwan?

 

[TillLindemann]

And sadly we didn’t walk silently

We couldn't walk more silently if we tried. Our leaders seem determined to not even utter the word China on issues like this. Our defence white paper doesn't say the word China. Scomo didn't say the word China at the sub announcement. Every time they do a cyber attack against Australia the government won't name them. When they launched an all out trade war against us the government responded with a wet lettuce referral to the WTO.

The only sabre rattling and belligerence has been from Beijing, and we are perfectly right as a sovereign nation to strengthen ties with our allies.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Warships during 12 day "exercise" Noble Union off Okinawa including the USS America, HMS Queen Elizabeth and JS Ise.

https://youtu.be/jJNIEii9RZI

https://youtu.be/josoPg8V7Gw

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Another article from USNI News on the likely ramifications of the new subs including the basing of additional US forces in Australia. This is very big news in the US now not only strategically but economically for the US Defence industry.

https://news.usni.org/2021/09/17/australia-needs-nuclear-sub-for-regional-superiority-defense-minister-says-more-u-s-forces-will-operate-in-australia-in-the-future.

UK Defence Journal reports the UK Government has awarded a contract to design the next nuclear attack submarine. With two new Astute Class submarines being constructed at Barrow-in-Furness, a lease of these two to Australia to provide training and operational experience could be an option.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/contract-awarded-to-design-new-british-nuclear-submarine/

 

[pawsandclaws1]

France has recalled its Ambassadors from the US and Australia.

 

[Tim Sheens]

This is a complex situation and as more information unfolds it becomes more concerning that we have done so in such a deceptive manner to a long held ally. To have an ambassador recalled because of our deception at the highest level is disturbing.

 

[TigerWest]

This is a complex situation and as more information unfolds it becomes more concerning that we have done so in such a deceptive manner to a long held ally. To have an ambassador recalled because of our deception at the highest level is disturbing.

Shouldn’t the contract with the French have been cancelled ages ago, for non performance?

They weren’t delivering, it’s not them in the firing line.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

This is a complex situation and as more information unfolds it becomes more concerning that we have done so in such a deceptive manner to a long held ally. To have an ambassador recalled because of our deception at the highest level is disturbing.

If you believe reports, the meeting between Macron and Smirko earlier this year included discussion about the difficulties Australia had with the progress (or non progress) of the Shortfin Barracuda design. While the move to nuclear propulsion is a shock, the decision to cancel the project was always on option. The RAAF took a very hard line with Boeing over the delivery of the Wedgetail aircraft contract. Wedgetail is a worldwide success with a number of other countries purchasing the capability. The USAF is very interested as well.