Heard a theory yesterday which makes some sense to me, from Peter Zeihan FWIW. That Iran ordered/green lighted/requested the Hamas attack in order to scupper the Saudi/Israeli deal but Iran expected the IDF to crush the incursion with maybe 20-30 Israelis killed. Theory that Hamas were way too successful the extent of the carnage was a lot more than expected and the corresponding Israeli response also uncalculated.
I'd like to add that the machinations of the US and indeed Russia and China with this ,also the Arab states and Iran and also Israel following the unprovoked massacre is that it seems to have taken everyone off guard......doesn't even seem to be alot of bluster from anyone either
Iron Dome is reported to have been approx 90% effective against prior rocket attacks; some sources report it did better than 90% against the recent barrage.
But if Hamas fires thousands of rockets at once, which they did this time - no nation has a defence system capable of intercepting that many concurrent projectiles. It would also be extraordinarily expensive to build and host so many rockets and launch batteries to be capable of such a workload.
The majority of the recent death toll is from the ground invasion.
re Iran - they aren't stupid enough to engage the US or Israel, because they'd be towelled up. You can bet your bottom dollar both US and Israel already have detailed strike plans drawn up in case they are engaged by Iran, and Iran does not have the capability to adequately defend itself. Iran does not officially have any nukes either.
Yes manoeuvring the aircraft carries is a PR exercise - 99% of all naval deployments by all countries are PR; navies don't make a habit of engaging each other. Same reason why military drills and joint operations are public knowledge.
Iron Dome is reported to have been approx 90% effective against prior rocket attacks; some sources report it did better than 90% against the recent barrage.
But if Hamas fires thousands of rockets at once, which they did this time - no nation has a defence system capable of intercepting that many concurrent projectiles. It would also be extraordinarily expensive to build and host so many rockets and launch batteries to be capable of such a workload.
The majority of the recent death toll is from the ground invasion.
re Iran - they aren't stupid enough to engage the US or Israel, because they'd be towelled up. You can bet your bottom dollar both US and Israel already have detailed strike plans drawn up in case they are engaged by Iran, and Iran does not have the capability to adequately defend itself. Iran does not officially have any nukes either.
Yes manoeuvring the aircraft carries is a PR exercise - 99% of all naval deployments by all countries are PR; navies don't make a habit of engaging each other. Same reason why military drills and joint operations are public knowledge.
Saturation attacks have virtually made it obsolete.......and with drones expensive naval and other assets are prone to Saturation attacks.
Israel pitched it's AA defences as virtually breachproof..........but that myth is gone and worse for them it may discourage immigration and encourage emigration.
Re Iran I'm sure it isn't silly to engage the US........but it has the capacity to strike US assets if attacked knowing it can't really be invaded or occupied . They from what I have read have 20 000 plus missiles......and have invested heavily in drones......the calculus of an expensive naval missile for which there are finite quantities needed to shoot down ubiquitous drones isn't one which favours a fleet.
An aerial bombardment of Iran will probably only speed up a nuclear acquisition aided by Russia.
I just wanted to make one set of comments - obviously it's a mess and both sides hold some form of blame in the history of the ongoing conflict.
Worst part is Hamas must surely have known that the Israeli response would be severe - the more successful Hamas is, the worse the reprisal and the more Palestinians who are hurt. I don't condone anything, that's just fact that Israel has a mighty military and anything Hamas does is revisited many-fold on it's own people. It's the mentality of a terrorist that you can never understand - they've given up trying to negotiate and are willing to risk devastation of their own population for hail-Mary outcomes (e.g. all of the Arab world being riled up and declaring war in Israel, which is a fantasy).
Unfortunately humans have been fighting over the Levant forever and likely we will never stop. An eternal tragedy. So many varied religions, languages and cultures squashed together with such a deep and war-torn history; so much hate for each other. Some of the fiercest rivals even share the same religion and divide either down Sunni/Shia or Monarchy/Theocracy/Republic lines.
I fear there is no solution. Even if you removed religion, you might tone down much of the extremism ("divinely" inspired / appointed / justified), but it would take another thousand years again for the cultural and ethnic differences to simmer down (e.g. look at how the Kurds are treated by their own Muslim "brothers").
I continue to be thankful that despite our own problems, we are a world and many generations away from those troubles. Most immigrants to Australia come to leave those old problems behind - to forget old animosities and start again somewhere different and multicultural.
Saturation attacks have virtually made it obsolete.......and with drones expensive naval and other assets are prone to Saturation attacks.
Israel pitched it's AA defences as virtually breachproof..........but that myth is gone and worse for them it may discourage immigration and encourage emigration.
Re Iran I'm sure it isn't silly to engage the US........but it has the capacity to strike US assets if attacked knowing it can't really be invaded or occupied .
An aerial bombardment of Iran will probably only speed up a nuclear acquisition aided by Russia.
That's not the point of Iron Dome, it's specifically an anti-terrorist system. It's designed primarily to intercept short-range rocket attacks, not defend against some theoretical nation-state invasion. It's designed to protect civilian populations. In that respect it still worked.
Hamas does not have the stockpile to continue saturation attacks. Neither does Hezbollah. They've basically blown their load already.
Maybe if Hamas can continually deploy thousands and thousands of rockets / missiles / drones over an extended period then you might eventually have a point. But they cannot.
Anyway it wasn't Iron Dome that contributed to the recent casualties, that was the Gaza perimeter being over-run via ground forces. The rocket saturation attack was a feint.
You are wrong about Israelis - this recent event has galvanised them. This is their 9/11, they aren't going anywhere.
Im sorry if facts upset you. The world doesnt work the way you like it to.
and yet you neglect to mention the 20,000 children abducted and taken without their parents by the Russians in the last 18 months or the reported 1M children abducted since 2014?
The United Nations remains committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity amidst indefensible attacks on civilians and infrastructure, a senior United Nations official told the Security Council today, as speakers took stock of the war’s impact on Ukraine’s children on the...
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Israel are taking out rocket launching sites and the tunnel entrances. Hamas intentionally put this sites under civilian residential buildings. Hamas use their own civilians as human shields. They do not want their own civilians to get out through Rafeh.
Im not sure what you suggest Israel do? They are being attacked with rockets by an organisation that continually calls for Israel to be wiped of the face of the earth. What do you suggest Israel do to protect its citizens? Do you believe Israel has a right to exist?
Hamas was elected by the Palestinian people of Gaza. How many democratic elections have been held in those 18 years? Are you supporting Hamas?
Then maybe the elected representatives of those children shouldnt have invaded the neighbouring country, intentionally slaughtered civilians, raped women, taken hostages, murder mothers in front of their children and kidnapped the kids, then continually rained rockets on the neighbouring more powerful country. What do you expect Israel to do? Do you support the existence of Israel?
Israel have the right, under the Geneva Convention to protect its population and remove the threat. All this blood is on Hamas hands.
The fact that you believe that this is a right v left issue speak s volumes about your ideology and bias on this topic.
I was hounded out of the footy forums because Im not in the cool gang. you seem to have a bit of a schizophrenic nature here Kaito, attacking me then supporting me.
Wrote you a big reply but lost it when I came
back to it mate, I'm upset because I took ages
to write it. I don't even feel like summarising!
Couldn't get back to you early Misty, my bad.
In no way shape or form am I condoning what
happened at the festival & kibbutzim after
that.
You asked do I support the existence of Israel,
which I found a bit weird TBH, but yes I do, why
not. They have the right to exist as much as the
neighbouring Palestinians. I don't support
the
flagrant violations of human rights and
international laws though, nor do I support
terrorism and the death of innocents, especially
in the name of God. I've read all your posts on
this thread, that's why I called you one eyed and
hawkish — you only seem to denounce
Hamas —
despite the horrors that have unfolded
in Gaza
time & time again, don't think that is fair/ right.
That sucks you don't feel comfortable posting
on footy related threads anymore. I don't
know who made you feel that way but F them.
You're a good poster. I'm not skitzo lol, I just
change my mind often at times, especially when I'm presented with new facts/different
perspectives, I'm not ashamed to admit that,
that's why these sorts of conversations are so
important. I know I sound real brash sometimes
but I have nothing against you personally and
think you're good value. You've made some really
cracker posts since coming back on the forum
I think that's exactly what's going on here. They
won't stop until hamas is crushed. Lebanon/
hezbollah/Iran are the real wild cards at play
here. Died pretty made a decent post loosely
based around Abrahamic Religions/holy places, they've been fighting for a very
long time. The west struggles to understand
why and how it's happening for the most part.
it sounds naïve but peace talks are paramount.
I think that's exactly what's going on here. They
won't stop until hamas is crushed. Lebanon/
hezbollah/Iran are the real wild cards at play
here. Died pretty made a decent post loosely
based around Abrahamic Religions/holy places, they've been fighting for a very
long time. The west struggles to understand
why and how it's happening for the most part.
it sounds naïve but peace talks are paramount.
Im afraid you are correct. Israel will not stop. They will flatten Gaza and it appears they have the international community (US) backing them all the way. The only end to this is the total destruction of Hamas = Gaza. I cant see any way out of it.
Military Industrial Complex are rubbing their fat little fingers with a huge shit eating grin at all of this. Afghanistan withdrawal, better start a war with Ukraine/Russia, that appears to be going nowhere and people getting over it, Ukraine flags in twitter bios are dropping off, let's start another one, rinse and repeat. $$$ Dollars make the world go round.
Im afraid you are correct. Israel will not stop. They will flatten Gaza and it appears they have the international community (US) backing them all the way. The only end to this is the total destruction of Hamas = Gaza. I cant see any way out of it.
Crazy Times Winny. 15 out of 19 9/11 highjackers
were from Saudi Arabia. 2 from the United Arab
Emirates. The west cozys up to them up until
now because they're wealthy Gulf Nations, yet
they export wahabism (who the west supports
in their proxys against Iran.) What was USA's
response after 9/11? A long bloody war against
innocent Iraqis and the invasion of Afghanistan.
Bedfellows with the Gulf nations but enemies
with every other middle eastern country. It
doesn't make any sense. The world was at the
world cup in Qatar not too long ago but just the
other day they hosted Iranian & hamas officials
for talks. The west are a bunch of hypocrites.
Crazy Times Winny. 15 out of 19 9/11 highjackers
were from Saudi Arabia. 2 from the United Arab
Emirates. The west cozys up to them up until
now because they're wealthy Gulf Nations, yet
they export wahabism (who the west supports
in their proxys against Iran.) What was USA's
response after 9/11? A long bloody war against
innocent Iraqis and the invasion of Afghanistan.
Bedfellows with the Gulf nations but enemies
with every other middle eastern country. It
doesn't make any sense. The world was at the
world cup in Qatar not too long ago but just the
other day they hosted Iranian & hamas officials
for talks. The west are a bunch of hypocrites.
It's all about the $$ Benjamins mate. Democracy/safety of civilians is a Disney movie. If it's not Pharma pushing vaccines it's a war somewhere that needs bombs to be built. Follow the money.
Spot on. Life is cheap, war is lucrative. Humans
are such complex yet basic & barbaric animals
when you break it all down. We will never see
peace. We'll end up burning it all down 1 day
Military Industrial Complex are rubbing their fat little fingers with a huge shit eating grin at all of this. Afghanistan withdrawal, better start a war with Ukraine/Russia, that appears to be going nowhere and people getting over it, Ukraine flags in twitter bios are dropping off, let's start another one, rinse and repeat. $$$ Dollars make the world go round.
Military Industrial Complex are rubbing their fat little fingers with a huge shit eating grin at all of this. Afghanistan withdrawal, better start a war with Ukraine/Russia, that appears to be going nowhere and people getting over it, Ukraine flags in twitter bios are dropping off, let's start another one, rinse and repeat. $$$ Dollars make the world go round.
Actually don't think it will widen, the posture of all nations concerned seems unprepared and unwilling........probably will proceed as a long term low intensity conflict with no clear winner.
Indeed. Get up, go to work, pay taxes and shut
TF up. Obey! And quarrel amongst yourselves! And for pete's sake! Don't mind what's behind the curtains! It's all quite depressing really lol
Actually don't think it will widen, the posture of all nations concerned seems unprepared and unwilling........probably will proceed as a long term low intensity conflict with no clear winner.
Its easier to sit on the sidelines away from direct destruction and use proxy wars to fill the coffers. That's a much better deal. I cant see a hot war between larger powers ever again, its just not good business.
Indeed. Get up, go to work, pay taxes and shut
TF up. Obey! And quarrel amongst yourselves! And for pete's sake! Don't mind what's behind the curtains! It's all quite depressing really lol
Indeed. Get up, go to work, pay taxes and shut
TF up. Obey! And quarrel amongst yourselves! And for pete's sake! Don't mind what's behind the curtains! It's all quite depressing really lol
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