I believe Utoikamanu will stay.
I wouldn't be surprised if the contract goes up a little, but enough positive things have been said over the last 12 months that I believe he really does want to stay & captain the club. Even Richo sounded very positive that this would be the outcome.
ALL THAT SAID.
If Utoikamanu does in fact leave, I think replacing him needs to be done carefully by the club. A lot of names bandied about are quality players. But I don't think they are of the same quality. So the money can't just be burned because "we need to sign someone".
It could be that his replacement is better off coming from within- Pole, Sione Fainu, Miller for example, with depth coming from elsewhere- a lower priced player that plays a role, instead of high investment in a name.
The money spent on NOS may not be the wisest investment. Willison will probably cost a bit, but might be a wise long-term investment. Hola from the Raiders could be the budget depth type signing. A couple of those Dragons forwards might be worth a look.
The temptation to replace a name player with another name player is strong- but something I think the club needs to be careful of as the investment probably isn't worth the dollars in the current market.