Are the Wests Tigers Improving? Stats to break it down.

twentyforty · Jun 14, 2024

InGalvinWeTrust said:
Thank you,

I've been eager to change the username but couldn't for a month until just now

Interesting stats there IGWT.
When I look for improvement in a team, I look for the one stat which doesn’t show up on reports.
Its the single most important thing to me when assessing the morale of a team.
Discretionary effort.

InBulaWeTrust · Jun 14, 2024

twentyforty said:
Interesting stats there IGWT.
When I look for improvement in a team, I look for the one stat which doesn’t show up on reports.
Its the single most important thing to me when assessing the morale of a team.
Discretionary effort.

Honestly I thought I was seeing an improvement in the morale and discretionary effort of the team but after the Dargons game I think it may be completely gone. Hope they prove me wrong tomorrow and get a big win at Leichhardt.

Halbrowne61 · Jun 14, 2024

InGalvinWeTrust said:
Are the Wests Tigers improving?
A question that we all have probably asked. In order to accurately see, I have decided to check it out through stats.
Bold stats allude to the better round the Tigers had in accordance with the stats in the last two years.
So if your brave and want to see how painfully mediocre the tigers are. Dig in

Round 1:

Possession in 2023: 56%

Possession in 2024: BYE

Completion rate in 2023: 71%

Completion rate in 2024: BYE

Post Contact metres in 2023: 625m

Post Contact metres in 2024: BYE

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 47

Tackle Breaks in 2024: BYE

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 87.92%

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: BYE

Errors in in 2023: 14

Errors in in 2024: BYE

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Bye

Thus, so far in round 1, improvements cannot be assessed.

Round 2:

Possession in 2023: 52%

Possession in 2024: 45%

Completion rate in 2023: 63%

Completion rate in 2024: 81%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 420m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 462

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 30

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 24

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 88 %

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 86%

Errors in in 2023: 18

Errors in in 2024: 9

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Loss

We can see a slight improvement in Post Contact metres, yet a substantial drop off in tackle breaks. A decent improvement in completion rate, although 81% isn’t great. No improvement in tackle efficiency (drops off by 2%)

Round 3:

Possession in 2023: 52%

Possession in 2024: 46%

Completion rate in 2023: 70%

Completion rate in 2024: 86%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 363m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 631

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 31

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 38

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 88 %

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 86%

Errors in in 2023: 14

Errors in in 2024: 6

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Win

A notion I am tending to see is that although this season we have an increase in run metres, we don’t get far enough tackle breaks as we have prior.

Round 4:

Possession in 2023: 47%

Possession in 2024: 47%

Completion rate in 2023: 78%

Completion rate in 2024: 86%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 540m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 693m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 26

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 24

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 90 %

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 85%

Errors in in 2023: 9

Errors in in 2024: 10

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Win

A sloppy win for 2024. Regressed in nearly all categories minus completion rate and post contact metres.

Round 5:

Possession in 2023: 47%

Possession in 2024: 52%

Completion rate in 2023: 73%

Completion rate in 2024: 80%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 451m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 566m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 20

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 27

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 87.26 %

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 88.83%

Errors in in 2023: 11

Errors in in 2024: 11

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Loss

Bare improvements…

Round 6:

Possession in 2023: 57%

Possession in 2024: 49%

Completion rate in 2023: 76%

Completion rate in 2024: 79%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 556m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 543m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 39

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 31

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 90.71 %

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 87.04%

Errors in in 2023: 13

Errors in in 2024: 9

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Loss

Nothing improving except completion by a tiny amount and a couple less errors. Only 10 less post contact metres yet 8 less tackle breaks, YIKES…

Round 8:

Possession in 2023: 58%

Possession in 2024: 50%

Completion rate in 2023: 74%

Completion rate in 2024: 79%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 427m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 561m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 36

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 32

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 87.94%

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 87.86%

Errors in in 2023: 12

Errors in in 2024: 13

2023 Result: LOSS

2024 Result: Loss

Blah.

Round 9:

Possession in 2023: 53%

Possession in 2024: 47%

Completion rate in 2023: 90%

Completion rate in 2024: 79%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 501m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 465m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 39

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 38

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 91.21%

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 88.40%

Errors in in 2023: 5

Errors in in 2024: 8 (+ 2 sin bins)

2023 Result: Win

2024 Result: Loss

On paper could be the best game in ages. Probably the best tigers game in the last two years minus the Leichardt Cowboys beauty.

Round 10

Possession in 2023: 53%

Possession in 2024: 48%

Completion rate in 2023: 86%

Completion rate in 2024: 82%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 501m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 470m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 43

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 27

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 87.47%

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 87.32%

Errors in in 2023: 10

Errors in in 2024: 10

2023 Result: Win

2024 Result: Loss

Round 11

Possession in 2023: 50%

Possession in 2024: 54%

Completion rate in 2023: 86%

Completion rate in 2024: 82%

Post Contact metres in 2023: 542m

Post Contact metres in 2024: 531m

Tackle Breaks in 2023: 14

Tackle Breaks in 2024: 44

Effective Tackle % in in 2023: 90.26%

Effective Tackle % in in 2024: 89.80%

Errors in in 2023: 7

Errors in in 2024: 6

2023 Result: Loss

2024 Result: Loss

ALL UP

2023 total errors by round 11: 113

2024 total errors by round 11: 85

Wins 2023: 2

Wins 2024: 2

Total Tackle Breaks by Round 11 in 2023: 325

Total Tackle Breaks by Round 11 in 2024: 285

Points Differential by Round 11 in 2023: -90

Points Differential by Round 11 in 2024: -81

Great stuff mate. Do you have points scored YTD v 23 ?

jirskyr · Jun 14, 2024

Lauren said:
In short.

Negatives:

Lack of attacking threat.

Inefficient use of possession.

Defensive lapses (conceding long-range tries, limiting our score trying opportunities).

Struggle in generating metres.

Positives:

Low error rate: the Wests Tigers have one of the lowest average error rates per game in the NRL.

Strategic kicking game: Opponents average metres gained on tackle two against the Tigers is among the lowest in the NRL.

Defensive improvement: Wests Tigers rank among the top teams in restricting opponents metres gained on tackles two and four.

Resilience: Despite challenges, Wests Tigers opponents have one of the lowest average starting positions on tackle one in the NRL.

Overall, the analysis suggests that while the Wests Tigers face significant challenges, there are also areas of strength and potential for improvement. The key issue is the team's difficulty in converting possession into points.

Hi Lauren

I didn't quite have the same take-aways from that report (I subscribe to the RLET emails).

For negatives, RLET says the main Tigers defensive issues are that we allow the opposition to start too far up field, worst in NRL - average of 40.5 m upfield. That means on average the opposition is only 10 metres from halfway on Tackle 1. And because we are a low-error team, this yardage is almost entirely due to lack of metres gained and poor kicking. But that stat alone, bad as it sounds, isn't a death-knell alone because 2nd through 4th worst are Dragons, Roosters and Broncos who are all travelling OK. Parramatta are very good at forcing the opposition to start deep in their own field, but are travelling badly (Parra give up lots yardage on carries and too many long-range tries).

The other negatives are that our Back 5 don't make enough carries (3rd-worst contributors of all backlines), which puts more pressure on our forwards to make their carries, and none of our forwards are top-level ball carriers (best metres per run is Fonua Pole who is 64th in the league). Whereas Melbourne for example are worst in the league for Back 5 carry contributions but their forwards make more significant contributions. Here RLET does not look at total metres for the backs, only % of carries (i.e. how much of the total carries they take, to take work of the forwards).

Also we are 4th-worst in the league for average distance to try, i.e. teams have to travel less far to score against us (in other words: are more dangerous from distance because of defensive lapses).

Also our average margin is far worse in 2nd half this year (meaning we aren't too far behind on average up to half time), but then recovers with late rallies around 68th minute. So we are being killed by the period 45-68th minute. We are almost never in the lead in any match.

So overall negatives we don't make many errors and actually give away about average # of penalties, but we don't have a good long-range kicking game, we don't have enough carries from the backs, our forwards are under too much pressure and don't give enough output and we let in too many tries from distance. Tigers also give up the most penalty goal attempts in the league, which either says something about where penalties are being given away or the opponent's confidence to Take 2 and come back.

For positives, #2 and #4 you listed I think are not correct. The metres gained on tackles 2-5 is a measurement of how effective Tigers are once the set has started; it's not specifically related to strategic kicking. The fact that the opponents start their sets so far downfield tells us that the strategic kicking is poor, compared to say Parramatta. What has improved 2024 is that Tigers are actually in the upper end of the competition for restricting metres once the set has started, which means our mid-set line speed must be good.

Positive #4 you listed is a negative not a positive - opponents actually have the highest average starting position.

So take-home 2024 from that analysis - Tigers don't kick or carry well, opponents start too far down-field, we don't make many mistakes and are decent at holding a set in defence, but eventually we lose the field position battle. Opponents score too many long-range tries and are regularly camped down our end, making it easier for them to convert chances into tries. We are losing the long-term battle over 80 mins, which is why we don't appear to be totally uncompetitive all match, but are still racking up losses. The first 3/4 of the second half is our kryptonite, where we cease being competitive or sticking in the match. We often rally late in the last 10 minutes.

Also RLET noted, you could almost call it "oddly", that the negatives being reviewed have barely changed since 2022. That means under Madge, Sheens and Benji, with quite considerable roster changes, we have the same struggles every year about field position, kicking game, go-forward and losing the overall battle. Simple stuff unfortunately. But odd because RLET even says something like "you can barely even tell the club has changed coach 3 times in 3 seasons, the negatives are so consistent".

RLET did not analyse in detail our attack except that we don't score enough points (didn't attempt to analyse why). But it's probably related to losing the overall field position battle and therefore unable to apply long-term attacking pressure.

But Benji (or maybe Morris) has helped the team improve mid-set defence, that one is clear. Opponents start too close to our try line but we are good at limiting their go-forward from Tackles 2-5.

InBulaWeTrust · Jun 14, 2024

Halbrowne61 said:
Great stuff mate. Do you have points scored YTD v 23 ?

Not yet, but I will figure out tonight

Yossarian · Jun 14, 2024

Up until the last week or so I'd have said yes, for sure. The match stats were pretty even and we were losing because key individuals were making costly errors and we lacked an attacking edge. But a 0-44 second half loss to a bog average team makes you think it's got worse.

Tiga · Jun 14, 2024

Stats:-
50 – No team has ever conceded 50 or more points in a regular season match and gone on to win the Grand Final.

NRL Grand Final | All-Time Records | Stats | History

Everything you need to know about the NRL Grand Final. Key stats and all-time records unravelled here. History of the showcase event of the NRL season

news.topsport.com.au

Tiga · Jun 14, 2024

Now that's a disappointing stat.
I think I've lost all hope

Tiger Woods · Jun 14, 2024

Conceded more than 50 but still hoping for a top 9 finish 🤣

Are the Wests Tigers Improving? Stats to break it down.

twentyforty

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InBulaWeTrust

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Yossarian

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Tiga

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