Betting Odds

@citizen cub said:
I obviously can't bet (considering my age :wink: ) but does any body know how much the Tigers are to win by 13+? I'd almost put my life on us winning by that margin, yes I know the Titans may come out firing considering their trying to avoid the wooden spoon and send Preston Campbell off on a good note and maybe restrict the margin to a more modest one, but class will prevail.
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Cub, Tigers are paying a measly $1.39 to win by 13+
 
Looks like the line is Tigers -20\. Minus 20! This has got 'recipe for disaster' written all over it.
 
It's hard to relax about games like this given the knack the club has for dropping games against easy opponents but if we don't win comfortably against this lot we might as well give up. They're barely able to put a team on the park.
 
@Centaur said:
The storm with +4 @ $1.91 is some of the best value I have seen this year.

Sportingbet.
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Yep. And the Roosters and Panthers are not bad bets given how terrible their opponents have been playing. No way I'd be taking odds in the red about Parra or Canberra. Everyone talks about Parra having a lot to play for but effort only gets you so far - their defence looked very shoddy on the weekend and the Roosters have been in reasonable form.

As for Canberra, I know they're at home but gees they were ordinary on the Gold Coast. The Titans were pretty much playing with a 16 man squad (including one with a broken hand) and still beat them. Panthers have Coote back. Not saying the Pennies are morals but forced to choose I'd take the bigger odds.
 
Dont forget guys, Very rare to find a poor Bookie.

Some very smart people work very hard to post these numbers to ensure the majority get these things wrong.

Manly and the Broncos in tonight's games I feel.
 
@Yossarian said:
@Centaur said:
The storm with +4 @ $1.91 is some of the best value I have seen this year.

Sportingbet.

Yep. And the Roosters and Panthers are not bad bets given how terrible their opponents have been playing. No way I'd be taking odds in the red about Parra or Canberra. Everyone talks about Parra having a lot to play for but effort only gets you so far - their defence looked very shoddy on the weekend and the Roosters have been in reasonable form.

As for Canberra, I know they're at home but gees they were ordinary on the Gold Coast. The Titans were pretty much playing with a 16 man squad (including one with a broken hand) and still beat them. Panthers have Coote back. Not saying the Pennies are morals but forced to choose I'd take the bigger odds.
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That's my win double for the weekend. Only decision is whether to take the margin (+2 Roosters, +4 Panthers) or the straight wins.

The justification for Canberra's favouritism seems to be "they're better at home" but this season they've had some _horrible_ results at home. And it's not like Penrith never play cold weather games . Also there's "it's Alan Tongue's last home game" which does nothing for me at all - even the other 16 players somehow fire up it still won't cover the fact they're playing alongside a guy who no longer belongs in first grade.

As for the Roosters, they seem to have improved and they've looked a class above the putrid Eels for a couple of weeks now. I'm not even convinced it's a post-Carney thing - they were pretty strong at Leichhardt a month back.
 
That's true to an extent Spartan but betting markets are just that - markets. The aim of the bookie is not to be right or wrong about something but to try and balance their hold on markets so they win no matter what the outcome. The obvious sign of this is when both teams are $1.90\. If they get the initial market wrong they just move the line
 
@Spartan117 said:
Dont forget guys, Very rare to find a poor Bookie.

Some very smart people work very hard to post these numbers to ensure the majority get these things wrong.

Manly and the Broncos in tonight's games I feel.
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Prices are actually set and adjusted by bookies in order to 'balance the book' - in other words to try and make a profit on the match regardless of the result.

So the prices are set just as much by market demand (i.e the bets that are placed) than it is set by the bookies thoughts on a result. This is really the reason Bookies don't 'lose' as such, because they balance the booker.

This is not always possible however, case in point, a horse race with Black Caviar in it. The reason that they come up with all these new fancy market on a Black Caviar race (for instance, how many lengths will it win by) is so they can attempt to balance the ledger because the horse is so favoured to win, it is impossible to balance simply by offering good prices for other runners.

At the end of the day, Bookies are gamblers too, and are just as incllined to get burnt. The advantage they have over the punting customer is that they set the prices and can try, to the best of their ability, to create a market which will enable them to make money regardless of a result. The Storm winning will probably be more profitable for the Bookie, but he also probably doesn't care if Manly win, because he is in a position where he is the winner anyway.
 
@2041 said:
@Yossarian said:
@Centaur said:
The storm with +4 @ $1.91 is some of the best value I have seen this year.

Sportingbet.

Yep. And the Roosters and Panthers are not bad bets given how terrible their opponents have been playing. No way I'd be taking odds in the red about Parra or Canberra. Everyone talks about Parra having a lot to play for but effort only gets you so far - their defence looked very shoddy on the weekend and the Roosters have been in reasonable form.

As for Canberra, I know they're at home but gees they were ordinary on the Gold Coast. The Titans were pretty much playing with a 16 man squad (including one with a broken hand) and still beat them. Panthers have Coote back. Not saying the Pennies are morals but forced to choose I'd take the bigger odds.

That's my win double for the weekend. Only decision is whether to take the margin (+2 Roosters, +4 Panthers) or the straight wins.

**The justification for Canberra's favouritism seems to be "they're better at home" but this season they've had some _horrible_ results at home.** And it's not like Penrith never play cold weather games . Also there's "it's Alan Tongue's last home game" which does nothing for me at all - even the other 16 players somehow fire up it still won't cover the fact they're playing alongside a guy who no longer belongs in first grade.

As for the Roosters, they seem to have improved and they've looked a class above the putrid Eels for a couple of weeks now. I'm not even convinced it's a post-Carney thing - they were pretty strong at Leichhardt a month back.
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Yeah I fell into that trap and tipped them to beat Souths! :crazy
 
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