Coronavirus Outbreak

[Cairnstigers]

Information from USA Today on Saturday

The U.S. counted more than 124,000 cases of coronavirus Saturday, with at least 2,100 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University data dashboard. More confirmations are expected as the U.S. ramps up testing. 

About 660,000 people are known to have been infected with COVID-19 globally, and more than 30,000 have died.

For those of you who struggle with maths that is almost 5% of people who contract the disease


Actually, for those that *really * struggle with maths, that is 4.5% of people who have been tested and found positive, all over the world, including areas where either testing is not widespread or where health systems are totally overwhelmed.

In areas where testing is widespread (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia) death rates are under 1% as well as closed systems such as the cruise ships that were isolated.

Even in the situation that you identify, the US where it is admitted that testing is insufficient, the deaths only represent less than 2% of total cases.

What is the benefit in sensationalising and misrepresenting?

Well at this point you should only compare deaths to recovery
As those who still have covid19 could go either way
From my understanding it takes two or more weeks to recover
So until all people tested fully recover you won't know the real figures


1000% Completely wrong. Somebody who is asymptomatic at home waiting on three negative tests, is not going to add to the death toll. You realise that the way you are framing the data means that ALL of the "unresolved" cases need to die?

Again as Ive said in other posts, we need to look at systems that have large tracts of reliable data with BIG testing numbers or even better, closed systems like the diamond princess. They all represent the same figures. I dont understand the benefit in overdramatising the data.

They are not my figures
There is a link there for you

 

[Tiger5150]

Information from USA Today on Saturday

The U.S. counted more than 124,000 cases of coronavirus Saturday, with at least 2,100 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University data dashboard. More confirmations are expected as the U.S. ramps up testing. 

About 660,000 people are known to have been infected with COVID-19 globally, and more than 30,000 have died.

For those of you who struggle with maths that is almost 5% of people who contract the disease


Actually, for those that *really * struggle with maths, that is 4.5% of people who have been tested and found positive, all over the world, including areas where either testing is not widespread or where health systems are totally overwhelmed.

In areas where testing is widespread (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia) death rates are under 1% as well as closed systems such as the cruise ships that were isolated.

Even in the situation that you identify, the US where it is admitted that testing is insufficient, the deaths only represent less than 2% of total cases.

What is the benefit in sensationalising and misrepresenting?

Well at this point you should only compare deaths to recovery
As those who still have covid19 could go either way
From my understanding it takes two or more weeks to recover
So until all people tested fully recover you won't know the real figures


1000% Completely wrong. Somebody who is asymptomatic at home waiting on three negative tests, is not going to add to the death toll. You realise that the way you are framing the data means that ALL of the "unresolved" cases need to die?

Again as Ive said in other posts, we need to look at systems that have large tracts of reliable data with BIG testing numbers or even better, closed systems like the diamond princess. They all represent the same figures. I dont understand the benefit in overdramatising the data.

They are not my figures
There is a link there for you

I dont doubt the figures, please review Hong Kong and Diamond Princess data, even our data, TODAYS dead doesnt represent 1% of cases a week ago.

 

[Tiger5150]

Information from USA Today on Saturday

The U.S. counted more than 124,000 cases of coronavirus Saturday, with at least 2,100 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University data dashboard. More confirmations are expected as the U.S. ramps up testing. 

About 660,000 people are known to have been infected with COVID-19 globally, and more than 30,000 have died.

For those of you who struggle with maths that is almost 5% of people who contract the disease


Actually, for those that *really * struggle with maths, that is 4.5% of people who have been tested and found positive, all over the world, including areas where either testing is not widespread or where health systems are totally overwhelmed.

In areas where testing is widespread (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia) death rates are under 1% as well as closed systems such as the cruise ships that were isolated.

Even in the situation that you identify, the US where it is admitted that testing is insufficient, the deaths only represent less than 2% of total cases.

What is the benefit in sensationalising and misrepresenting?

Well at this point you should only compare deaths to recovery
As those who still have covid19 could go either way
From my understanding it takes two or more weeks to recover
So until all people tested fully recover you won't know the real figures


1000% Completely wrong. Somebody who is asymptomatic at home waiting on three negative tests, is not going to add to the death toll. You realise that the way you are framing the data means that ALL of the "unresolved" cases need to die?

Again as Ive said in other posts, we need to look at systems that have large tracts of reliable data with BIG testing numbers or even better, closed systems like the diamond princess. They all represent the same figures. I dont understand the benefit in overdramatising the data.

They are not my figures
There is a link there for you

To make my point clearer....what is the percentage in Brasil? WHat is the % in Italy, Spain, Iran? What do these countries have in common?

What is the % in HK, Korea, Australia, Diamond Princess? What does this data have in common.

Then tell me the best data to base rates on?

 

[Cairnstigers]

Information from USA Today on Saturday

The U.S. counted more than 124,000 cases of coronavirus Saturday, with at least 2,100 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University data dashboard. More confirmations are expected as the U.S. ramps up testing. 

About 660,000 people are known to have been infected with COVID-19 globally, and more than 30,000 have died.

For those of you who struggle with maths that is almost 5% of people who contract the disease


Actually, for those that *really * struggle with maths, that is 4.5% of people who have been tested and found positive, all over the world, including areas where either testing is not widespread or where health systems are totally overwhelmed.

In areas where testing is widespread (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia) death rates are under 1% as well as closed systems such as the cruise ships that were isolated.

Even in the situation that you identify, the US where it is admitted that testing is insufficient, the deaths only represent less than 2% of total cases.

What is the benefit in sensationalising and misrepresenting?

Well at this point you should only compare deaths to recovery
As those who still have covid19 could go either way
From my understanding it takes two or more weeks to recover
So until all people tested fully recover you won't know the real figures


1000% Completely wrong. Somebody who is asymptomatic at home waiting on three negative tests, is not going to add to the death toll. You realise that the way you are framing the data means that ALL of the "unresolved" cases need to die?

Again as Ive said in other posts, we need to look at systems that have large tracts of reliable data with BIG testing numbers or even better, closed systems like the diamond princess. They all represent the same figures. I dont understand the benefit in overdramatising the data.

They are not my figures
There is a link there for you


To make my point clearer....what is the percentage in Brasil? WHat is the % in Italy, Spain, Iran? What do these countries have in common?

What is the % in HK, Korea, Australia, Diamond Princess? What does this data have in common.

Then tell me the best data to base rates on?

Question ----How many respirators are there in the world
Answer ---- no where near enough

Unless they can keep these numbers under control, which I highly doubt, there will not be enough respirators to save people's lives
Especially in 3rd world countries

So the figures you look at now are based on available treatment at this time
When no treatment is available because there is not a spare respiratory in sight then what happens

You can not put out a fire without a hose
That is the real problem

And you can't pick the eyes out of these figures
You need to look at the overall picture here

There is also a time delay on many of these figures
Eg : how many current people with a positive diagnosis will die
And furthermore, what happens to all the critical patients when there are no respirators

 

[PrattenParkMagpie]

China Being Sued for 20 Trill

US probably just looking for cash to pay off their debts.

Don't blame them to be honest. If China withheld it from the world and allowed diseased citizens to leave the country, there should be certainly some sort of reparations.

I have to agree CB,if someone does an injustice to someone else they can litigate or sue for compensation...Not turning this into a China hate thread ..only pointing out that on a global scale they also have a duty of care to their own people and to people who visit their country...I would say in a normal court of law they could be found negligent and in breach of their duty of care,,,

Can I ask this ....

How would they have known early on it was any different from any flu season

It is quite similar in many ways ...with the amount of people coming and going from China by the time they knew it was too late

Haters got to hate I guess


Happy, the CCP arrested and detained the doctors who first reported this as a new virus. The CCP broke into the research lab that first identified the virus as a new virus and destroyed the vials (Sun Yang style) (Source Washington Post & London Times). In december the CCP officially notified the WHO that there were no human to human cases.

Thank you!

If people want to read a CCP propaganda mill, may I suggest moving themselves over to the Beijing Daily or similar state run publications. You can swallow all the lies you can handle over there.

What about the Spanish Flu ..it started in Kansas and killed somewhere between 25 000 000 and 40 000 000

Did the rest of the world take action v the USA

Have the Americans taken ownership or paid any reparations ....

Oh that's right ... this country is Red ....

Maybe, maybe not, a 2018 study found that the Spanish Flu (or H1N1 virus) may have began in China as early as 1915 as a mild flu, it is believed that it mutated in Kansas in 1917 and was spread by troops in France in early 1918. China had a low mortality rate of the Spanish Flu and it is believed that was because they had built up immunities to the original outbreak of the flu before it mutated. by the way the H1N1 virus returned as the Swine flu in 2009.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Can the Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon talk go to the politics thread? Fair enough if you have to reference him here in regard to the US response on it, but any ideological pissing contests that start from this will be deleted from here on in.

 

[Geo]

Political diatribe has been moved to the politics thread..thank you

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

On the other hand, it appears our new daily cases number is trending down. I hope this continues as the effects of the restrictions take hold also.

I would hope that we're still testing extensively as well so that number is not artificially lower, as I am sure that's why China is reporting such low numbers now.

Initially the majority of cases would have been "imported," now the task will be limiting the community spread as those numbers will be the ones that matter now. Hoping we do not see an explosion in numbers over the next few days.

 

[twentyforty]

On the other hand, it appears our new daily cases number is trending down. I hope this continues as the effects of the restrictions take hold also.

I would hope that we're still testing extensively as well so that number is not artificially lower, as I am sure that's why China is reporting such low numbers now.

Initially the majority of cases would have been "imported," now the task will be limiting the community spread as those numbers will be the ones that matter now. Hoping we do not see an explosion in numbers over the next few days.

The US are having success with their contact tracing tests. Finding 15% of those tested being positive.

 

[twentyforty]

On the other hand, it appears our new daily cases number is trending down. I hope this continues as the effects of the restrictions take hold also.

I would hope that we're still testing extensively as well so that number is not artificially lower, as I am sure that's why China is reporting such low numbers now.

Initially the majority of cases would have been "imported," now the task will be limiting the community spread as those numbers will be the ones that matter now. Hoping we do not see an explosion in numbers over the next few days.

I think the first case showed up in Melbourne, a Chinese national. The first 10 cases in Australia were from China. The government acted quickly to stop incoming flights from China. We started screening flights pretty quickly, but why aren’t we doing more testing in Victoria?

 

[Nelson]

On the other hand, it appears our new daily cases number is trending down. I hope this continues as the effects of the restrictions take hold also.

I would hope that we're still testing extensively as well so that number is not artificially lower, as I am sure that's why China is reporting such low numbers now.

Initially the majority of cases would have been "imported," now the task will be limiting the community spread as those numbers will be the ones that matter now. Hoping we do not see an explosion in numbers over the next few days.

I think the first case showed up in Melbourne, a Chinese national. The first 10 cases in Australia were from China. The government acted quickly to stop incoming flights from China. We started screening flights pretty quickly, but why aren’t we doing more testing in Victoria?

What is the level of testing in Victoria and how does it compare to other states? The methodology still seems based on the identification of close contacts of confirmed cases so given that Victoria has less confirmed cases than NSW you would expect proportionately less testing.

 

[kevinmcguinness]

call centres are hiring.

Optus; Foxtel etc because Phillipines & India on lockdown

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.


Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

I would hope that a consequence of having borders shut long term might be a resurgence in local manufacturing.

 

[TheDaBoss]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[Tiger5150]

I would hope that a consequence of having borders shut long term might be a resurgence in local manufacturing.

I think the best we can hope for in the next couple of years is possibly the economy totally open with the exception of international tourism.

 

[Tiger5150]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Ive found that site to be pretty slow on updating numbers. I have found https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and https://www.news.com.au/topics/coronavirus are a lot more up to date.

 

[Snake]

Can our country stand on its own two feet ? Being an island continent if the virus can be stopped and controlled can the country lift the lock downs and close our borders permanently for an indefinite period .. life gets back to normal while cutting ourselves off to the wider world until it is safe to open the borders again !

 

[Tiger5150]

Can our country stand on its own two feet ? Being an island continent if the virus can be stopped and controlled can the country lift the lock downs and close our borders permanently for an indefinite period .. life gets back to normal while cutting ourselves off to the wider world until it is safe to open the borders again !

We are cut off from the rest of the world only when it comes to tourism. Freight is still coming in and out. Tourism is one of our biggest industries though.

 

[Tiger5150]

Just an off topic post. I am enjoying this discussion in this thread. Its an anxious, stressful, weird time for everyone and for me I enjoy this opportunity to discuss these issues. I find it informative and to an extent reassuring.

I think that at times my posts may come across as combative or argumentative but I genuinely dont mean it that way. There are one or two posters in the whole forum that I dont respect but I simply dont engage with these people. The rest I may appear to be arguing or disagreeing, but I genuinely dont feel that way and just genuinely enjoy discussing issues and trying to get to the bottom of facts.

So TLDR....thanks for the opportunity to discuss in this thread and my apologies for any perceived combatitiveness or arrogance.