Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.

Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

 

[kevinmcguinness]

Can our country stand on its own two feet ? Being an island continent if the virus can be stopped and controlled can the country lift the lock downs and close our borders permanently for an indefinite period .. life gets back to normal while cutting ourselves off to the wider world until it is safe to open the borders again !

It’s possible but tourism is a huge business and whilst we are pretty self sufficient we still would need certain imports that we just don’t manufacture but that could be manageable in the short to medium term.

It would be a huge blow to the Blue Mountains. Up here they would be relying on Sydney weekenders propping the place up.

BM rely on sydney and vice versa just like aussies rely on our friends overseas from most corners of this earth...

 

[mike]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.


Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

Just less people asking/presenting meeting the criteria. They are now looking at wider testing where there are community hotspots and possible communal transmission and no direct contact rather than imports from overseas.

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.


Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

Just less people asking/presenting meeting the criteria. They are now looking at wider testing where there are community hotspots and possible communal transmission and no direct contact rather than imports from overseas.

Thats a good thing IMO. Its a cycle, less transmission = less cases = less presenting for tests. It will be good if they continue tests at the same rate at a wider target group.

I also read that that is part of the reason why numbers are so much higher in NSW, that they were much more liberal with their testing and were more lenient about who got a test.

 

[mike]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.


Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

Just less people asking/presenting meeting the criteria. They are now looking at wider testing where there are community hotspots and possible communal transmission and no direct contact rather than imports from overseas.


Thats a good thing IMO. Its a cycle, less transmission = less cases = less presenting for tests. It will be good if they continue tests at the same rate at a wider target group.

I also read that that is part of the reason why numbers are so much higher in NSW, that they were much more liberal with their testing and were more lenient about who got a test.

Hopefully this so. We just need a bit more data over the next week to verify the trend.

 

[twentyforty]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.


Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

Just less people asking/presenting meeting the criteria. They are now looking at wider testing where there are community hotspots and possible communal transmission and no direct contact rather than imports from overseas.


Thats a good thing IMO. Its a cycle, less transmission = less cases = less presenting for tests. It will be good if they continue tests at the same rate at a wider target group.

I also read that that is part of the reason why numbers are so much higher in NSW, that they were much more liberal with their testing and were more lenient about who got a test.

Hopefully this so. We just need a bit more data over the next week to verify the trend.

I thought there was something not quite right with the testing in Victoria. Apparently al regional tests are sent to a lab in Melbourne for analysis. Therefore results aren’t known for average 48 hours some as late as 72 hours. This delay in knowing the results may have serious consequences.
Medical manufacturing company Abbott has recently made available apparatus which provides a result in 5 minutes and can be easily used by medical staff at a hospital.??

Edit; begs the question, why aren’t we using it?

 

[mike]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.


Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

Just less people asking/presenting meeting the criteria. They are now looking at wider testing where there are community hotspots and possible communal transmission and no direct contact rather than imports from overseas.


Thats a good thing IMO. Its a cycle, less transmission = less cases = less presenting for tests. It will be good if they continue tests at the same rate at a wider target group.

I also read that that is part of the reason why numbers are so much higher in NSW, that they were much more liberal with their testing and were more lenient about who got a test.

Hopefully this so. We just need a bit more data over the next week to verify the trend.


I thought there was something not quite right with the testing in Victoria. Apparently al regional tests are sent to a lab in Melbourne for analysis. Therefore results aren’t known for average 48 hours some as late as 72 hours. This delay in knowing the results may have serious consequences.
Medical manufacturing company Abbott has recently made available apparatus which provides a result in 5 minutes and can be easily used by medical staff at a hospital.??

Yes, quicker test and easier test to produce. Testing for antibodies rather than for the virus itself. Much more easier to mass produce and administer. It will give a clearer picture of who has had the virus and who has not, hopefully allowing for better tracking and ultimately preventing communal outbreaks.

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Promising but less testing in the last few days, so we will have to wait and see if they are related or a real trend. Testing will ramp up again in the next few days.


Where did you get the info about less testing? Why did they slow testing?

DoH shows continuing rise in tests with 230000 total.

Just less people asking/presenting meeting the criteria. They are now looking at wider testing where there are community hotspots and possible communal transmission and no direct contact rather than imports from overseas.

You were 100% correct with this. DoH announced today that they had a big drop in testing over the weekend. Interesting to see how that shakes out in the data.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

If anyone has watched the video of that woman pleading on behalf of the other 100 odd Australians and Kiwis on MV Ocean Atlantic you too would be sickened. They don't want to pay the full 9k to get home but can afford a once in a lifetime cruise to the Antarctic. With so many doing it tough in Australia they should pay or stay. I am sick of all these whinging retirees.

100%. The demanding voice was a bit rich from her. Does anyone know when and where they left from? She says "unforeseen circumstances" but given the Diamond Princess in Japan was WAY back in Feb 1, how was a cruise ship being quarantined and not being able to dock "unforeseen"?

Have they been sailing on this boat for 2 months?

I estimate a 9 Mar or slightly earlier departure based on a three week cruise. The only unforseen issue is travel insurance not covering return fare.

I think that's a pretty good estimate.

The laughable thing is that they point the finger at the government, without making the connection that it's my or your money that is going to pay for it. The government are only a function of the taxpayers.

As far as I'm concerned, they can pay the whole god damn fare. I would prefer to give my tax money to someone who has been locked down and lost their job or the brave medical workers who couldn't go on holidays at a time like this.

This wasn't unforeseen. This was their risk to take on. They can foot the bill. If they had asked differently on the video, maybe they would have garnered some sympathy. But pointing fingers at anyone but themselves is just ignorant and not going to win favours.

"their risk to take" Some acquaintances of mine were dead set going off on their world tour including europe and the middle east regardless of horrific reports coming in from Italy. Fortunately everything shut down before they could go. I don't get that mentality at all.

Yes those selfish Australians who left knowing the danger. deserve no sympathy. Unfortunately for the older citizens, this could end their lives.

Border Farce continuing to prove they are only good for hunting toilet paper hoarders from Coles. On Channel 10 the residents who share facilities with the Swisshotel are upset about possible contamination from passengers of the Norwegian Princess. This time Tanya Plibersek put the boot in saying it is a federaf problem and we don't want a repeat of

 

[NT_Tiger]

If anyone has watched the video of that woman pleading on behalf of the other 100 odd Australians and Kiwis on MV Ocean Atlantic you too would be sickened. They don't want to pay the full 9k to get home but can afford a once in a lifetime cruise to the Antarctic. With so many doing it tough in Australia they should pay or stay. I am sick of all these whinging retirees.

100%. The demanding voice was a bit rich from her. Does anyone know when and where they left from? She says "unforeseen circumstances" but given the Diamond Princess in Japan was WAY back in Feb 1, how was a cruise ship being quarantined and not being able to dock "unforeseen"?

Have they been sailing on this boat for 2 months?

I estimate a 9 Mar or slightly earlier departure based on a three week cruise. The only unforseen issue is travel insurance not covering return fare.

I think that's a pretty good estimate.

The laughable thing is that they point the finger at the government, without making the connection that it's my or your money that is going to pay for it. The government are only a function of the taxpayers.

As far as I'm concerned, they can pay the whole god damn fare. I would prefer to give my tax money to someone who has been locked down and lost their job or the brave medical workers who couldn't go on holidays at a time like this.

This wasn't unforeseen. This was their risk to take on. They can foot the bill. If they had asked differently on the video, maybe they would have garnered some sympathy. But pointing fingers at anyone but themselves is just ignorant and not going to win favours.

"their risk to take" Some acquaintances of mine were dead set going off on their world tour including europe and the middle east regardless of horrific reports coming in from Italy. Fortunately everything shut down before they could go. I don't get that mentality at all.

Yes those selfish Australians who left knowing the danger. deserve no sympathy. Unfortunately for the older citizens, this could end their lives.

Border Farce continuing to prove they are only good for hunting toilet paper hoarders from Coles. On Channel 10 the residents who share facilities with the Swisshotel are upset about possible contamination from passengers of the Norwegian Princess. This time Tanya Plibersek put the boot in saying it is a federaf problem and we don't want a repeat of

The curious thing was that both of these people are in their 70's one of them a chain smoker. Maybe they just don't give a stuff.

 

[dazza65]

If anyone has watched the video of that woman pleading on behalf of the other 100 odd Australians and Kiwis on MV Ocean Atlantic you too would be sickened. They don't want to pay the full 9k to get home but can afford a once in a lifetime cruise to the Antarctic. With so many doing it tough in Australia they should pay or stay. I am sick of all these whinging retirees.

100%. The demanding voice was a bit rich from her. Does anyone know when and where they left from? She says "unforeseen circumstances" but given the Diamond Princess in Japan was WAY back in Feb 1, how was a cruise ship being quarantined and not being able to dock "unforeseen"?

Have they been sailing on this boat for 2 months?

I estimate a 9 Mar or slightly earlier departure based on a three week cruise. The only unforseen issue is travel insurance not covering return fare.

I think that's a pretty good estimate.

The laughable thing is that they point the finger at the government, without making the connection that it's my or your money that is going to pay for it. The government are only a function of the taxpayers.

As far as I'm concerned, they can pay the whole god damn fare. I would prefer to give my tax money to someone who has been locked down and lost their job or the brave medical workers who couldn't go on holidays at a time like this.

This wasn't unforeseen. This was their risk to take on. They can foot the bill. If they had asked differently on the video, maybe they would have garnered some sympathy. But pointing fingers at anyone but themselves is just ignorant and not going to win favours.

"their risk to take" Some acquaintances of mine were dead set going off on their world tour including europe and the middle east regardless of horrific reports coming in from Italy. Fortunately everything shut down before they could go. I don't get that mentality at all.

Yes those selfish Australians who left knowing the danger. deserve no sympathy. Unfortunately for the older citizens, this could end their lives.

Border Farce continuing to prove they are only good for hunting toilet paper hoarders from Coles. On Channel 10 the residents who share facilities with the Swisshotel are upset about possible contamination from passengers of the Norwegian Princess. This time Tanya Plibersek put the boot in saying it is a federaf problem and we don't want a repeat of

sickening to me that any politician continues to try and make political capital out of the pandemic - but for certain types it doesn't surprise me...

 

[pawsandclaws1]

If anyone has watched the video of that woman pleading on behalf of the other 100 odd Australians and Kiwis on MV Ocean Atlantic you too would be sickened. They don't want to pay the full 9k to get home but can afford a once in a lifetime cruise to the Antarctic. With so many doing it tough in Australia they should pay or stay. I am sick of all these whinging retirees.

100%. The demanding voice was a bit rich from her. Does anyone know when and where they left from? She says "unforeseen circumstances" but given the Diamond Princess in Japan was WAY back in Feb 1, how was a cruise ship being quarantined and not being able to dock "unforeseen"?

Have they been sailing on this boat for 2 months?

I estimate a 9 Mar or slightly earlier departure based on a three week cruise. The only unforseen issue is travel insurance not covering return fare.

I think that's a pretty good estimate.

The laughable thing is that they point the finger at the government, without making the connection that it's my or your money that is going to pay for it. The government are only a function of the taxpayers.

As far as I'm concerned, they can pay the whole god damn fare. I would prefer to give my tax money to someone who has been locked down and lost their job or the brave medical workers who couldn't go on holidays at a time like this.

This wasn't unforeseen. This was their risk to take on. They can foot the bill. If they had asked differently on the video, maybe they would have garnered some sympathy. But pointing fingers at anyone but themselves is just ignorant and not going to win favours.

"their risk to take" Some acquaintances of mine were dead set going off on their world tour including europe and the middle east regardless of horrific reports coming in from Italy. Fortunately everything shut down before they could go. I don't get that mentality at all.

Yes those selfish Australians who left knowing the danger. deserve no sympathy. Unfortunately for the older citizens, this could end their lives.

Border Farce continuing to prove they are only good for hunting toilet paper hoarders from Coles. On Channel 10 the residents who share facilities with the Swisshotel are upset about possible contamination from passengers of the Norwegian Princess. This time Tanya Plibersek put the boot in saying it is a federaf problem and we don't want a repeat of


sickening to me that any politician continues to try and make political capital out of the pandemic - but for certain types it doesn't surprise me...

Public criticism of Border Force and it's performance is warranted. At the end of this, a thorough review of this organization should be undertaken.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

Carpooling is now illegal. Police will stop cars with multiple people to check their addresses.

 

[Tiger5150]

Carpooling is now illegal. Police will stop cars with multiple people to check their addresses.

AHhhh that explains it. IVe seen coppers everywhere and yesterday blocking two lanes with RBT lights on but not testing. Was wondering what they were doing

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Good way for the government to return some of that money it's sending out.

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.



Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.



 

[mike]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.



Testing starting to ramp up, now more widespread, so the numbers in the next few days will show how effective the measures that have been put in place are.

 

[Geo]

3 more people died..that is the only number that counts..

 

[cochise]

3 more people died..that is the only number that counts..

Sorry but that is untrue, all numbers count because that is what leads to the health system becoming overwhelmed and that is when you see a large increase in the number of deaths from both the virus and other issues.

 

[mike]

3 more people died..that is the only number that counts..

If we can get the infection rate below 1 and keep it there, it will mean that it will virus will not be increasing in numbers and will eventually die out and therefore reduce the overall number of deaths, the number that really does count.