Dunno if this guys on the money or not…
The experts are not in agreement. That's half the problem; you only need to read the Herald for a day to see the widely differing opinions from medical, epidemiological and logistical experts.
They definitely have a point in the UK about when to enact the heaviest isolation, because there is a lot of concern that if you go too early, or too hard, people can only stay indoors for so long, then you've used your isolation card up.
For example, imagine we went heavy isolation in Australia right now and held the coronavirus cases at around 250 for, say, 6 months. Never more than 250 cases, maybe 6000 people total over the 6 months (250 per week in and out). And the isolation works, and the rate drops down and down. If you relax the isolation rules before cases are below zero, you are going back to January where you have maybe 5 or 6 people who can trigger a new outbreak; or someone comes in from another country and we have to do this all over again. That's the problem with COVID-19, because it's clearly very easy to get a foothold and explode in transmission.
If instead you just let the population be careful and gradually have corona move through, you get a large but manageable number of cases, most of those people recover, severe cases get hospital priority, and a significant portion of the population (theoretically) develops immunity. So the next run of corona in 2021, assuming it becomes seasonal, we don't have 100% disease-naive subjects like we do now. Then corona becomes like flu, where the population has a baseline immunity and there is a small and manageable toll on the health system.
That's the theory anyway. Because you look at Italy, they've gone full mental lockdown and... the rate of positive corona cases is still skyrocketing? They've been in lockdown for at least a week, and on Sunday they reported 3.5K new cases. That's not to say they are doing it wrong, just that you can go lockdown and the disease obviously still gets around or cases still arise afterwards. And you have to ask how long you can sustain lockdown?
They just made a good point on Q&A (one of very few mind you )
What did we do for feedback during the Bushfires
We had the head of Fire Service make calls and we backed them 110%
Why can't we do the same here ....pick the best expert in this situation and back him or her to the hilt ...at least the whole country is on the same page