Coronavirus Outbreak

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@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454260) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454238) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454216) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454202) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453690) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453684) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453679) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453673) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453619) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453616) said:
Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

If the table 5.6 that I saw has Doherty expecting 57 deaths of <16 year olds that are yet to be availed vaccination in the first 180 days after opening at 80% comes true, such will not be acceptable to a hell of a lot people.

You need to be extremely careful using any model like you've used it here. The predictive ability of these models isn't that good.

I work in a big IT department. I was in a meeting and one young guy was stating our predicted business next year was something like $101,000,205. That number was completely meaningless because there was no way he had the ability to predict that figure with that degree of accuracy.

The problem with cherry picking a piece of information like you've done is that it isn't meant to be used like that.

Did you say the Doherty reports was fact?

The predictive analytics are not accurate. You cannot use those figures. I'll prove it to you as well. How many cases have we had now ? Have we had that many deaths ?

If the answer is we haven't then I've got it right and people arguing with me have it wrong.

The Doherty report is a predictive model based on good data. They can't predict to that level of detail though.

![alt text](https://media.istockphoto.com/photos/picking-sour-cherry-picture-id185964825?k=6&m=185964825&s=612x612&w=0&h=gKgX8lvH2ouAe9FpVUl3bt_XQa1l9a254Ws7r6pcGKc=)
 
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454261) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454254) said:
. I’m not going to bother with a rebuttal other than to say for EVERY time I make any definitive statement about something on this topic I ALWAYS post a link to the data and people can make their own conclusions. I only post reputable journals and sources.

His proof was a podcast that was taken down from You Tube. How hilarious is that.

Oh Im not on foe anymore?

Scroll through my posts you liar. Every definitive statement is backed by a peer reviewed study or report at a minimum. you on the otherhand....nothing. I didnt seek to prove anything with the podcast. My point **WAS** that it got taken down from youtube.

1. Lab theory - no proof

It is now the null hypothesis. How is your bat eating hypothesis looking? Found the bat yet?

2. Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) - failure.

I posted numerous studies showing efficacy of Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) as a treatment and as a prophylactic. I ended up posting a meta analysis by Tess Lawrie on Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) as therapeutic and prophylactic that shows efficacy in both. Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) is being used worldwide as both.

Turns out I wasnt the only one who posted the meta-analysis....
___________________________________________________
POSTED BY EARL:
https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Fulltext/2021/08000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.7.aspx

*Conclusions:*

*Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19 deaths are possible using Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective). Using Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) early in the clinical course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety and low cost suggest that Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) is likely to have a significant impact on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic globally.*

*I don’t think this is the best thing for any country with access to the vaccine. It’s more something that could really help the developing countries who can’t get access to vaccines.*
https://weststigersforum.com/topic/30513/coronavirus-outbreak/10859
________________________________________________

It takes a special kind of genius to have a crack at someone for posting something and then post the exact same thing. Another word would be **hypocrite**

By the way, what exactly was a failure about it?

3. Vaccines don't work - failure

Never said that in a million posts. Point to a SINGLE post of mine that I said vaccines dont work. YOU ARE A **DAMN LIAR** AND YOU NEED TO STOP. **You need to apologise for making this accusation.**

In fact the only person Ive seen in here question the efficacy of the vaccines is you...

EARL:
"*In Israel they have also seen a fairly steep decline in the efficacy with the Pfizer over like 6 months.*"
https://weststigersforum.com/topic/30513/coronavirus-outbreak/12052

Of course you were completely wrong and continually and knowingly spreading misinformation.

4. Pfizer efficacy is better than AZ - he doesn't even understand efficacy and he got it wrong.

I understand efficacy perfectly. I'll tell you who else understands efficacy...the scientists publishing in the New England Journal of Medicine. Pfizer 88% efficacy against contracting Delta vs 67% AZ.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Someone else that understands efficacy....Public Health England. Exactly the same efficacy.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination

Someone who completely does NOT understand efficacy at all and posted a Vox video which was correct but he didnt understand what it said......Earl.

and who could forget this jewel of Earls understanding of efficacy and simple mathematics....

"*The calculation should work like follows:-
Get the number of people with COVID in the placebo group. Get the number of people who are vaccinated who get COVID.
Subtract the number of people with COVID who were vaccinated from the number of people who received the placebo who developed COVID. Divide this by the number of COVID cases in the placebo group.*"
https://weststigersforum.com/topic/30513/coronavirus-outbreak/12090

So much understanding of efficacy right there....and maffs. I hope you are not helping your 10yo with their maths homework.





You've gotten everything wrong. Every single one.


As Ive stated.....and as is easily confirmed by a quick scroll through my posts, every definitive statement Ive made in this thread has been backed by a link to respected journals, studies and data (not a Vox vid to be seen). I can not say the same about you. But while we are enquiring...

How many people have died in the US from COVID, I remember YOU saying it was 2%, over 7MILLION PEOPLE? Was that right?

What about your prediction of a 5% case fatality rate in Australia?

Your prediction of 10,000 annual deaths in Australia?

Earl you have shown that you do not have me on foe, which means that you do not have that excuse every time I have posted scientific and medical journals refuting the rubbish you have been posting. This means that you are INTENTIONALLY spreading lies and misinformation on a very important topic in this thread. You should stop. I dont know what is wrong with you and why you would be doing this but you should stop or the mods should stop you. @Geo @willow @cochise

You also owe me an apology and a correction for stating that I posted that the vaccines dont work.
 
@thedaboss said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454356) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454353) said:
I have no words..

![images (17).jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1629851065695-images-17.jpeg)

???

Agree to disagree, lads.
 
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454357) said:
@thedaboss said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454356) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454353) said:
I have no words..

![images (17).jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1629851065695-images-17.jpeg)

???

Agree to disagree, lads.

I have no problem with agree to disagree. I have no problem if Im wrong about something, its not the end of the world if Earl makes a mistake about something.

I wont cop him lying about me, particularly him stating that I have posted that vaccines dont work.

I also wont cop Earl posting things here that are completely false and when presented with the scientific data that it is wrong, simply repeating the misinformation over and over and over again and all the time with no links to data to back it up.

I know Im boring the hell out of everyone here correcting Earl, but I am going to continue to do it every time he posts misinformation. I think it matters in this context and in this thread. I dont know what is wrong with him and why he keeps it up.

Its not a matter of disagreeing with Earl. I disagree with his point of view all the time elsewhere on football matters but I dont jump all over him, its not a personal thing. If Earl continues to posts misinformation here or unsubstantiated opinion dressed up as fact, without linked data to prove it, I will continue to call him out.
 
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454361) said:
5150 .. the scientist
Earl … disgraced former GP

Have I got that correct ?

Apologies in advance if not lol

Earl isnt claiming he was a GP is he?
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454362) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454357) said:
@thedaboss said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454356) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454353) said:
I have no words..

![images (17).jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1629851065695-images-17.jpeg)

???

Agree to disagree, lads.

I have no problem with agree to disagree. I have no problem if Im wrong about something, its not the end of the world if Earl makes a mistake about something.

I wont cop him lying about me, particularly him stating that I have posted that vaccines dont work.

I also wont cop Earl posting things here that are completely false and when presented with the scientific data that it is wrong, simply repeating the misinformation over and over and over again and all the time with no links to data to back it up.

I know Im boring the hell out of everyone here correcting Earl, but I am going to continue to do it every time he posts misinformation. I think it matters in this context and in this thread. I dont know what is wrong with him and why he keeps it up.

Its not a matter of disagreeing with Earl. I disagree with his point of view all the time elsewhere on football matters but I dont jump all over him, its not a personal thing. If Earl continues to posts misinformation here or unsubstantiated opinion dressed up as fact, without linked data to prove it, I will continue to call him out.

I ain't complaining...
Enjoying the read.

"I don't judge, show em all love. What ever gets my brothers across that line."

Just don't wanna see another @Strongee VS @The_Patriot situation.

Remember, it's the internet.
Not everyone is as smart as you... or me... or @TheDaBoss
But everyone has an opinion and everyone has a voice or platform.
We ain't always going to agree and some aren't always going to be correct... but the wheels keep turning.
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454364) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454361) said:
5150 .. the scientist
Earl … disgraced former GP

Have I got that correct ?

Apologies in advance if not lol

Earl isnt claiming he was a GP is he?

His father was .. apparently
 
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454365) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454362) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454357) said:
@thedaboss said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454356) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454353) said:
I have no words..

![images (17).jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1629851065695-images-17.jpeg)

???

Agree to disagree, lads.

I have no problem with agree to disagree. I have no problem if Im wrong about something, its not the end of the world if Earl makes a mistake about something.

I wont cop him lying about me, particularly him stating that I have posted that vaccines dont work.

I also wont cop Earl posting things here that are completely false and when presented with the scientific data that it is wrong, simply repeating the misinformation over and over and over again and all the time with no links to data to back it up.

I know Im boring the hell out of everyone here correcting Earl, but I am going to continue to do it every time he posts misinformation. I think it matters in this context and in this thread. I dont know what is wrong with him and why he keeps it up.

Its not a matter of disagreeing with Earl. I disagree with his point of view all the time elsewhere on football matters but I dont jump all over him, its not a personal thing. If Earl continues to posts misinformation here or unsubstantiated opinion dressed up as fact, without linked data to prove it, I will continue to call him out.

I ain't complaining...
Enjoying the read.

"I don't judge, show em all love. What ever gets my brothers across that line."

Just don't wanna see another @Strongee VS @The_Patriot situation.

Remember, it's the internet.
Not everyone is as smart as you... or me... or @TheDaBoss
But everyone has an opinion and everyone has a voice or platform.
We ain't always going to agree and some aren't always going to be correct... but the wheels keep turning.

I have zero problem with Earl having an opinion. There are MANY varied opinions in here on this topic and everyone is entitled to it.

I have a big problem with people lying, and intentionally spreading misinformation in the face of conclusive scientific proof to the contrary. That I have a big problem with and Earl has been doing it continually for a long time and I dont know why he is doing it but he should stop.

Bear in mind that this has blown up again because after weeks of Earl quoting the Doherty report with respect to forecast deaths, Earl called out @formerguest for doing the exact same thing.
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454370) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454365) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454362) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454357) said:
@thedaboss said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454356) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454353) said:
I have no words..

![images (17).jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1629851065695-images-17.jpeg)

???

Agree to disagree, lads.

I have no problem with agree to disagree. I have no problem if Im wrong about something, its not the end of the world if Earl makes a mistake about something.

I wont cop him lying about me, particularly him stating that I have posted that vaccines dont work.

I also wont cop Earl posting things here that are completely false and when presented with the scientific data that it is wrong, simply repeating the misinformation over and over and over again and all the time with no links to data to back it up.

I know Im boring the hell out of everyone here correcting Earl, but I am going to continue to do it every time he posts misinformation. I think it matters in this context and in this thread. I dont know what is wrong with him and why he keeps it up.

Its not a matter of disagreeing with Earl. I disagree with his point of view all the time elsewhere on football matters but I dont jump all over him, its not a personal thing. If Earl continues to posts misinformation here or unsubstantiated opinion dressed up as fact, without linked data to prove it, I will continue to call him out.

I ain't complaining...
Enjoying the read.

"I don't judge, show em all love. What ever gets my brothers across that line."

Just don't wanna see another @Strongee VS @The_Patriot situation.

Remember, it's the internet.
Not everyone is as smart as you... or me... or @TheDaBoss
But everyone has an opinion and everyone has a voice or platform.
We ain't always going to agree and some aren't always going to be correct... but the wheels keep turning.

I have zero problem with Earl having an opinion. There are MANY varied opinions in here on this topic and everyone is entitled to it.

I have a big problem with people lying, and intentionally spreading misinformation in the face of conclusive scientific proof to the contrary. That I have a big problem with and Earl has been doing it continually for a long time and I dont know why he is doing it but he should stop.

Bear in mind that this has blown up again because after weeks of Earl quoting the Doherty report with respect to forecast deaths, Earl called out @formerguest for doing the exact same thing.

Lockdown got people going stir crazy...
Maybe he's getting enjoyment from this?
Lol... I dont know.

Waste of words with some people though.
May I ask, are you enjoying the debate though ?
 
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm

Delta reduces RNA vaccine effectiveness

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/messenger-rna-covid-vaccines-66-effective-against-delta-us-study/news-story/a77dd989ef021acfef3e80ae705be9be
 
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454372) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454370) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454365) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454362) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454357) said:
@thedaboss said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454356) said:
@geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454353) said:
I have no words..

![images (17).jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1629851065695-images-17.jpeg)

???

Agree to disagree, lads.

I have no problem with agree to disagree. I have no problem if Im wrong about something, its not the end of the world if Earl makes a mistake about something.

I wont cop him lying about me, particularly him stating that I have posted that vaccines dont work.

I also wont cop Earl posting things here that are completely false and when presented with the scientific data that it is wrong, simply repeating the misinformation over and over and over again and all the time with no links to data to back it up.

I know Im boring the hell out of everyone here correcting Earl, but I am going to continue to do it every time he posts misinformation. I think it matters in this context and in this thread. I dont know what is wrong with him and why he keeps it up.

Its not a matter of disagreeing with Earl. I disagree with his point of view all the time elsewhere on football matters but I dont jump all over him, its not a personal thing. If Earl continues to posts misinformation here or unsubstantiated opinion dressed up as fact, without linked data to prove it, I will continue to call him out.

I ain't complaining...
Enjoying the read.

"I don't judge, show em all love. What ever gets my brothers across that line."

Just don't wanna see another @Strongee VS @The_Patriot situation.

Remember, it's the internet.
Not everyone is as smart as you... or me... or @TheDaBoss
But everyone has an opinion and everyone has a voice or platform.
We ain't always going to agree and some aren't always going to be correct... but the wheels keep turning.

I have zero problem with Earl having an opinion. There are MANY varied opinions in here on this topic and everyone is entitled to it.

I have a big problem with people lying, and intentionally spreading misinformation in the face of conclusive scientific proof to the contrary. That I have a big problem with and Earl has been doing it continually for a long time and I dont know why he is doing it but he should stop.

Bear in mind that this has blown up again because after weeks of Earl quoting the Doherty report with respect to forecast deaths, Earl called out @formerguest for doing the exact same thing.

Lockdown got people going stir crazy...
Maybe he's getting enjoyment from this?
Lol... I dont know.

Waste of words with some people though.
May I ask, ***are you enjoying the debate though ?***

Im really not, I find it extremely frustrating however I am not prepared to leave it alone because I think its important that this thread be factual and there is a reason for this. Recently Earl completely lied about something (to do with efficacy) and someone here posted "oh thank you I get it now" and potentially that person could then make a decision of their own health on that basis.

As a mod recently said to me, "if you are looking for info in a footy forum, you are doing it wrong" and I agree totally with this. I am NOT a Doctor, I do have two biology based scientific degrees (Grad Certificate AQF Level 8 ) but not in medicine and no one should take advice from me on COVID but if I post something I think is definitive, I post the link to the data so people can make their conclusions. Earl isnt and he is continually knowingly posting misinformation.

TLDR: Im boring even myself but cant stop, wont stop...calling out Earl when he is lying or spreading misinformation.
 
@the_third said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454374) said:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm

Delta reduces RNA vaccine effectiveness

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/messenger-rna-covid-vaccines-66-effective-against-delta-us-study/news-story/a77dd989ef021acfef3e80ae705be9be

Perfect example.

The efficacy of the vaccine has not changed. The disease has. The vaccine remains 91% effective against the alpha variant, it is unchanged. It is less effective (67% in this article, 88% according to New England Journal of Medicine) against the Delta variant.


EDIT: @the_third I want to make it clear, Im not disagreeing with you, of course the vaccine isnt as effective against the Delta, Ive posted many times scientific studies showing this. I am making an assumption that you posted this after I said to Earl he was wrong about vaccine efficacy declining in Israel. Earl was making the point that the *Pfizer* vaccine *in itself* had stopped working and the efficacy of the *Pfizer vaccine itself* was declining in Israel. Simply not true, Delta became the dominant variant.
 
919 cases today....was hoping yesterdays drop was a sign that it was turning around
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1454403) said:
919 cases today....was hoping yesterdays drop was a sign that it was turning around

Do we get a participation award when we get 1000?
 
What a shocking number today.

For all the hype about vaccine take up, that's a bad result in a largely unvaccinated population.
 
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