Coronavirus Outbreak

[earl]

I'm coming guys. More quality information on the way.

 

[swag_tiger]

I'm getting vaccinated tomorrow. I better get my lollipop after.

 

[Madge]

I've been fully vaccinated for about a month now.

 

[TrueTiger]

I'm getting vaccinated tomorrow. I better get my lollipop after.

Get the one that Hap got ....an all day sucker....never out of his mouth...

 

[Demps]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm

Delta reduces RNA vaccine effectiveness

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/messenger-rna-covid-vaccines-66-effective-against-delta-us-study/news-story/a77dd989ef021acfef3e80ae705be9be

Perfect example.

The efficacy of the vaccine has not changed. The disease has. The vaccine remains 91% effective against the alpha variant, it is unchanged. It is less effective (67% in this article, 88% according to New England Journal of Medicine) against the Delta variant.


EDIT: @the_third I want to make it clear, Im not disagreeing with you, of course the vaccine isnt as effective against the Delta, Ive posted many times scientific studies showing this. I am making an assumption that you posted this after I said to Earl he was wrong about vaccine efficacy declining in Israel. Earl was making the point that the *Pfizer* vaccine *in itself* had stopped working and the efficacy of the *Pfizer vaccine itself* was declining in Israel. Simply not true, Delta became the dominant variant.

Well man, I can only speak for myself...
But I have really appreciated your contributions in this thread.

I check in and read the posts.

 

[earl]

I posted a really good paper previously on the effect of COVID on children. There are currently some health experts/epidemiologists arguing that teenagers do not need to be vaccinated. The argument here is that the risk to them is so low and we are in a pandemic and therefore the best option is to vaccinate the poor countries rather than low risk demographics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/

This paper here articulates the risk of dying from COVID compared to accidental deaths.

>The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus.

This is basically stating that your risk profile increases significantly as you age. There is no specific information on children because the grouping is below the age of 25.

 

[earl]

I said to Earl he was wrong about vaccine efficacy declining in Israel. Earl was making the point that the *Pfizer* vaccine *in itself* had stopped working and the efficacy of the *Pfizer vaccine itself* was declining in Israel. Simply not true, Delta became the dominant variant.

Semantics. Thanks for admitting you got it wrong. Is Delta COVID ? Did the effectiveness drop significantly ? Have you read the research recently stating how the effectiveness of both vaccines are about equal. The whole point is that you had no idea what efficacy was and you got it wrong and oh so wrong.

Why did you continue to go against the health advice which Dr Chant clearly states regularly ? Are you stating you know better than Dr Chant ?

Have you admitted your special podcast that you pushed so hard on here has been taken down from YouTube due to being construed as misinformation ? Just to be clear the whole podcast was taken down because it was dodgy science.

 

[cochise]

I posted a really good paper previously on the effect of COVID on children. There are currently some health experts/epidemiologists arguing that teenagers do not need to be vaccinated. The argument here is that the risk to them is so low and we are in a pandemic and therefore the best option is to vaccinate the poor countries rather than low risk demographics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/

This paper here articulates the risk of dying from COVID compared to accidental deaths.

>The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus.

This is basically stating that your risk profile increases significantly as you age. There is no specific information on children because the grouping is below the age of 25.

Interestingly my wife has just completed an inservice on Covid, she is a frontline healthcare worker.

The possible reasons children are suffer milder symptoms than adults according to her training this morning are

* They have fewer ACE 2 receptors than adults, meaning the virus has less points of attachment.

* Younger white blood cells.

* A weaker inflammatory response due to an immature immune system.

This is from NSW Health staff training.

 

[Tiger5150]

I posted a really good paper previously on the effect of COVID on children. There are currently some health experts/epidemiologists arguing that teenagers do not need to be vaccinated. The argument here is that the risk to them is so low and we are in a pandemic and therefore the best option is to vaccinate the poor countries rather than low risk demographics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/

This paper here articulates the risk of dying from COVID compared to accidental deaths.

>The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus.

This is basically stating that your risk profile increases significantly as you age. There is no specific information on children because the grouping is below the age of 25.

NOT...having a go at you Earl, but that data was collected prior to September 2020 and therefore is based on the Alpha variant. It would be interesting and useful to see how it compares with the Delta variant which based on reports seems to be impacting younger people more.

Unrelated to your data here Earl but I am genuinely interested in actual data of the impact of Delta on the young because due to the fact that vacciantions have been prioritised by age, it is a certainty that proportionally the percentage of younger people infected MUST rise but not necessarily due to an increase in the ability of Delta to infect or impact young people. That fact doesnt exclude it though.

 

[earl]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/here-s-the-evidence-on-vaccinating-kids-what-would-you-do-20210706-p587db.html

Here is an article on vaccinating kids.

>“Overall, children are in the lowest risk category for severe illness.” says Professor Jim Buttery, head of signal investigation at Victoria’s immunisation safety service.

>The USA has recorded 595,086 deaths involving COVID-19, per CDC figures: just 326 have been in people under 18.

It's good to put that 326 number into perspective. My understanding (and please check) is that something like 40-200 children die from seasonal flu per year.

It's not good when any child dies but the risk is extremely low.

 

[earl]

5150 .. the scientist
Earl … disgraced former GP

Have I got that correct ?

Apologies in advance if not lol

Earl isnt claiming he was a GP is he?

His father was .. apparently

Close. He was a pathologist who worked at Westmead Hospital and then in private practice. He has been retired for a number of years though.

 

[FinestTigers]

919 cases today....was hoping yesterdays drop was a sign that it was turning around

Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon: ‘If We Stop Testing, We’d Have Fewer Cases’ 
content://com.android.chrome.FileProvider/images/screenshot/16298598182791629725617.jpg

 

[earl]

919 cases today....was hoping yesterdays drop was a sign that it was turning around

Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon: ‘If We Stop Testing, We’d Have Fewer Cases’ 
content://com.android.chrome.FileProvider/images/screenshot/16298598182791629725617.jpg

I hate Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon with a passion but you know he told a rally recently that he was vaccinated and he recommended they get vaccinated. They booed him. He then said something like "you can have your freedoms".

 

[TheDaBoss]

I've been fully vaccinated for about a month now.

I will be in about 2 weeks

 

[earl]

I've been fully vaccinated for about a month now.

I will be in about 2 weeks

I've also been fully vaccinated for about a month. I'm getting angrier at times but I don't think that is a side effect of the vaccine.

 

[Demps]


 

[earl]

I posted a really good paper previously on the effect of COVID on children. There are currently some health experts/epidemiologists arguing that teenagers do not need to be vaccinated. The argument here is that the risk to them is so low and we are in a pandemic and therefore the best option is to vaccinate the poor countries rather than low risk demographics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/

This paper here articulates the risk of dying from COVID compared to accidental deaths.

>The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus.

This is basically stating that your risk profile increases significantly as you age. There is no specific information on children because the grouping is below the age of 25.

NOT...having a go at you Earl, but that data was collected prior to September 2020 and therefore is based on the Alpha variant. It would be interesting and useful to see how it compares with the Delta variant which based on reports seems to be impacting younger people more.

Unrelated to your data here Earl but I am genuinely interested in actual data of the impact of Delta on the young because due to the fact that vacciantions have been prioritised by age, it is a certainty that proportionally the percentage of younger people infected MUST rise but not necessarily due to an increase in the ability of Delta to infect or impact young people. That fact doesnt exclude it though.

The first paper has more up to date information.

COVID is COVID though. The delta is twice as infectious but the same principles should apply.

As I stated earlier there isn't much information on children but I believe that is probably because it simply isn't effecting them as much.

 

[earl]

This is from NSW Health staff training.

Interesting how the health information appears to correspond to my information. It's almost like I'm copying the health information.

Crazy stuff.

 

[earl]

What a shocking number today.

For all the hype about vaccine take up, that's a bad result in a largely unvaccinated population.

It's a massive concern. My confidence levels are increasing significantly because people are getting vaccinated but the time period up until Christmas is critical.

The health system is under stress.

A woman in her 30's with 3 kids has died and her husband is extremely sick.

I think you made a really good point that I'm going to repeat. The Doherty report doesn't have a black and white approach where it's 100% freedom or harsh lockdown.

They will have to adjust restrictions going forward dependent on the impact to the health system.

It's not get to 70% vaccination and you can go to the local whorehouse.

 

[earl]

You also owe me an apology and a correction for stating that I posted that the vaccines dont work.

No, no and no. You have made so many mistakes it's not funny. You have no clue but worse than that you talk so confidently when you are wrong.

Let's be honest you aren't even a little bit wrong. You get it completely wrong.