Coronavirus Outbreak

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@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.



The date is right and its from a government minister who's on the front bench I am just trying to help people with the date
 
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132744) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks
 
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132739) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132738) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

Confirmed by who?

Probably the check out chick at Coles



I am just trying to help you thanks for your support
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132747) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132744) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...
 
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132749) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132747) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132744) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132752) said:
But if people are not happy with the information I won't say anything about what I am told to after it is over

What makes you think that...more concerned that it seems like an economic decision than a health one....
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132750) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132749) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132747) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132744) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132752) said:
But if people are not happy with the information I won't say anything about what I am told to after it is over

Well when you sprook that you have confirmation from at least 2 sources but won’t name names or provide a link ...
I think it’s called trolling 🤔
 
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132756) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132750) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132749) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132747) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132744) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them
 
![Screenshot_20200320-213353_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700683355-screenshot_20200320-213353_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213503_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700698856-screenshot_20200320-213503_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213706_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700736426-screenshot_20200320-213706_gallery-resized.jpg)
 
@Earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132522) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132521) said:
Earl are you crazy? Which other country had the opportunity to do what I am suggesting China should have done? Which other country has had that opportunity? Seriously

Every other country had this opportunity. As soon as they got their first case they should have gone into lockdown. You could even go into lockdown as soon as China had it's first case.

Are you suggesting China should be assessed differently to every other country in the world ?

I seem to remember that when our government first put restrictions on travel from China, there were plenty of people that decried this as racist.
 
![Screenshot_20200320-214253_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584701094485-screenshot_20200320-214253_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-214348_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584701113038-screenshot_20200320-214348_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-214415_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584701135669-screenshot_20200320-214415_gallery-resized.jpg)
 
Please note that highlighted the date of 26 February when the Italy total was similar to ours at lunchtime today.


![Screenshot_20200320-214814_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584701574322-screenshot_20200320-214814_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-214908_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584701601812-screenshot_20200320-214908_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-215012_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584701636629-screenshot_20200320-215012_gallery-resized.jpg)
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132763) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132756) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132750) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132749) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132747) said:
@Geo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132744) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132740) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132730) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132725) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132716) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132714) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132704) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132635) said:
Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?
 
Just got home from work and I have been updated in regards to further restrictions...
As of today the max people was 100 within clubs pubs etc with a 1.5 metre distancing...
It is now reduced to 50 max people with a 4.0 metre distancing...
the next step I would say is closure..will wait and see what developes...
 
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132768) said:
![Screenshot_20200320-213353_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700683355-screenshot_20200320-213353_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213503_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700698856-screenshot_20200320-213503_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213706_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700736426-screenshot_20200320-213706_gallery-resized.jpg)


Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132793) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132768) said:
![Screenshot_20200320-213353_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700683355-screenshot_20200320-213353_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213503_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700698856-screenshot_20200320-213503_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213706_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700736426-screenshot_20200320-213706_gallery-resized.jpg)


Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

Mate, great post!
 
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132780) said:
What are your and other’s thoughts?

I don't think it's a problem yet but that could change quickly. This virus spreads extremely quickly unless people start social distancing. It's really up to us.

I'm praying we don't end up like a lot of other countries but I have no confidence we will do this correctly. I think heaps of people don't get how quickly this can explode. Maybe better put it can go from a trickle to a tsunami quickly.
 
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132802) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132793) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1132768) said:
![Screenshot_20200320-213353_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700683355-screenshot_20200320-213353_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213503_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700698856-screenshot_20200320-213503_gallery-resized.jpg)
![Screenshot_20200320-213706_Gallery.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1584700736426-screenshot_20200320-213706_gallery-resized.jpg)


Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

Mate, great post!

On the money
 
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