


Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.
I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.
This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.
I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.
If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.
I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.
Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.
To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.
So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)
Younger people have been dying in Italy once the health system became overloaded!
That is also a concern, though hopefully mitigation measures are already being rolled out to prevent that scenario.
Though like @JD-Tiger above the lack of restrictions concerns me, with Italy having gone into full lockdown 10 days (11 now seeing it is morning) ago, whilst it's problem northern regions were closed down nearly a week earlier. Yet only now we are (hopefully) seeing their peak death numbers play out now despite such measures.
I am also worried about our lack of testing when juxtaposed with the better outcome in a northern town there with great testing rates that has become basically clear, along with that of Singapore.
Testing limitations were unavoidable though but hopefully with the designing of tests in Australia that use different components we should see testing broadened. A complete lockdown will be devastating here and locking down early in the piece will see you locked down for much longer as it only takes a couple of new cases and you are going to see the numbers rise again. The issue here is getting people to take the restrictions we have seriously as social distancing, isolation of unwell people and virtual lockdown of at risk people can work in slowing the spread to a manageable rate!
Reckon that unavoidable is a big stretch, with warnings about testing being sounded a couple of months ago. Can certainly agree on the current restrictions and people being faithful to them, just think that their levels have been and still are a week or more behind where they need to be.
So how do you source the required components when every country in the world is trying to source the same resources?
I doubt we can test like South Korea has unless we somehow get this under control now. Vaccines aren't produced quickly. We need to improve how we produce vaccines. We need to react more quickly to these events.
Most importantly though we need to practice social distancing. I reckon this is our only hope but I'm not sure enough people get this.