Coronavirus Outbreak

[trentrunciman]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

We are obviously looking at different base lines. The point I was trying to make is it not the 3.5% or 14% range that has been quoted in the media. It’s a lot less. I am not trying to minimise the impact this will have but I don’t want to exaggerate it either. The fear and panic this creates could also cause a number of unnecessary deaths. We need to keep a level head and support all those that need support and part of doing that is not to panic, it only makes things worse. If we all work together we will get through it. The best thing all of us can do now to protect the most vulnerable is not to panic buy, practice good hygiene and take the advice of the science based medical practitioners.

Is it? Not saying you're wrong, but everything I've read says coroner's death rate is about 2-3%, not 0.5%.

I can understand the plethora of differrent options and i'd blame a lot of this on the media and its misinformation. Wanting to create click bait material for SEO optimisation.

 

[Hangonaminute]

Currently on road trip with some overseas family members from Netherlands.
We are in Caloundra/ Golden Beach for next6 days. Apartment overlooking bay and township. Normally on Sunday packed with visitors and locals ..... but pretty quiet both on water and on shore. Walking track sparsely used.
Went shopping for supplies yesterday arvo .... lots of stuff missing and Woolies taking advantage by bumping price's.
Petrol-still cheap compared to Sydney. Cairns Port Douglas next so will be interesting to see how things are up there.

I live in Caloundra,
was on a cruise from Brisbane to Cairns, Port Douglas.
We boarded, we got our bags, we sat down to have lunch, they made an announcement that the cruise was cancelled.
We stayed on board for the night now we're thinking about plan B.

 

[TillLindemann]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

We are obviously looking at different base lines. The point I was trying to make is it not the 3.5% or 14% range that has been quoted in the media. It’s a lot less. I am not trying to minimise the impact this will have but I don’t want to exaggerate it either. The fear and panic this creates could also cause a number of unnecessary deaths. We need to keep a level head and support all those that need support and part of doing that is not to panic, it only makes things worse. If we all work together we will get through it. The best thing all of us can do now to protect the most vulnerable is not to panic buy, practice good hygiene and take the advice of the science based medical practitioners.

Is it? Not saying you're wrong, but everything I've read says coroner's death rate is about 2-3%, not 0.5%.

Ok let’s unpack this a bit.
Is it 2-3% of the entire population? no
Is it 2-3% of everyone that has COVID-19? The stats from overseas that have tested widely suggest not but it is closer to 0.6% to 0.8%
Is it 2-3% of people that have presented with severe symptoms of COVID-19 and need to be hospitalised and in the most severe cases need ICU? This is the most likely.

Without knowing the denominator, the total number of people the coroner’s is referring to, the figure can be misleading.

Damm autocorrect changed corona to coroner. Of those who have tested positive, about 3% have died (I think)

 

[Tigerboy]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

We are obviously looking at different base lines. The point I was trying to make is it not the 3.5% or 14% range that has been quoted in the media. It’s a lot less. I am not trying to minimise the impact this will have but I don’t want to exaggerate it either. The fear and panic this creates could also cause a number of unnecessary deaths. We need to keep a level head and support all those that need support and part of doing that is not to panic, it only makes things worse. If we all work together we will get through it. The best thing all of us can do now to protect the most vulnerable is not to panic buy, practice good hygiene and take the advice of the science based medical practitioners.

Is it? Not saying you're wrong, but everything I've read says coroner's death rate is about 2-3%, not 0.5%.

Ok let’s unpack this a bit.
Is it 2-3% of the entire population? no
Is it 2-3% of everyone that has COVID-19? The stats from overseas that have tested widely suggest not but it is closer to 0.6% to 0.8%
Is it 2-3% of people that have presented with severe symptoms of COVID-19 and need to be hospitalised and in the most severe cases need ICU? This is the most likely.

Without knowing the denominator, the total number of people the coroner’s is referring to, the figure can be misleading.

Damm autocorrect changed corona to coroner. Of those who have tested positive, about 3% have died (I think)

Many immunocompromised & impoverished

 

[TillLindemann]

Yeah definitely, I don't want to exaggerate it. If you are healthy, this almost certainly wouldn't be fatal

 

[softlaw]

Rather than continuing to speculate - the World Health Organisation map linked below shows that ~3.7% of people who have tested positive with Covid-19 have died from it (5,393 from 142,649 as at 14/3/2020 1600CET).
Earlier in this thread you're talking about a seasonal flu death rate of somewhere between 0.06% and 0.2% (it is fairly safe to assume you are talking about % of diagnosed cases). In which case 3.7% is significantly more than an order of magnitude larger.
It is worth noting that countries like the US have done a terrible job of testing to date, so that may skew the figures (probably decreasing %) and that it is still very early in the progress of disease so % of deaths will probably go up as a larger percentage of diagnosed cases have had time to run their course one way or the other.
WHO Map
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
Also may be of interest
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

 

[Tigerboy]

Rather than continuing to speculate - the World Health Organisation map linked below shows that ~3.7% of people who have tested positive with Covid-19 have died from it (5,393 from 142,649 as at 14/3/2020 1600CET).
Earlier in this thread you're talking about a seasonal flu death rate of somewhere between 0.06% and 0.2% (it is fairly safe to assume you are talking about % of diagnosed cases). In which case 3.7% is significantly more than an order of magnitude larger.
It is worth noting that countries like the US have done a terrible job of testing to date, so that may skew the figures (probably decreasing %) and that it is still very early in the progress of disease so % of deaths will probably go up as a larger percentage of diagnosed cases have had time to run their course one way or the other.
WHO Map
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
Also may be of interest
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

And you legitimately believe that they (WHO) collected those figures themselves, firsthand?

Some real spuds on this forum

Big Pharma will have this sorted soon, bet?

 

[softlaw]

o...k....
you have a good afternoon out there

 

[Tigerboy]

o...k....
you have a good afternoon out there

Not at the game. Would be pretty unwise at this stage, IMO, but I can’t *pretend* to know where the basis of this scientific evidence is coming from and whether it’s accurate or not.

Huge Hillsong conference wrapping up this weekend thx to PM... hope ur not among those

THERE are currently a tonne of Coronaviridae out there and causing a **wide** variety of insignificant and annoying to potentially life threatening symptoms.

The question really remains; where did this come from within the animal kingdom and why so virulent?

 

[mike]

Rather than continuing to speculate - the World Health Organisation map linked below shows that ~3.7% of people who have tested positive with Covid-19 have died from it (5,393 from 142,649 as at 14/3/2020 1600CET).
Earlier in this thread you're talking about a seasonal flu death rate of somewhere between 0.06% and 0.2% (it is fairly safe to assume you are talking about % of diagnosed cases). In which case 3.7% is significantly more than an order of magnitude larger.
It is worth noting that countries like the US have done a terrible job of testing to date, so that may skew the figures (probably decreasing %) and that it is still very early in the progress of disease so % of deaths will probably go up as a larger percentage of diagnosed cases have had time to run their course one way or the other.
WHO Map
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
Also may be of interest
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

The question is who has been tested? Not everybody, and in the majority of countries not those with slight or even mild symptoms. In many countries only those with severe symptoms are tested and they are more likely to struggle for survival.

 

[cochise]

o...k....
you have a good afternoon out there

Not at the game. Would be pretty unwise at this stage, IMO, but I can’t *pretend* to know where the basis of this scientific evidence is coming from and whether it’s accurate or not.

Huge Hillsong conference wrapping up this weekend thx to PM... hope ur not among those

THERE are currently a tonne of Coronaviridae out there and causing a **wide** variety of insignificant and annoying to potentially life threatening symptoms.

The question really remains; where did this come from within the animal kingdom and why so virulent?

The working theory is that it game from bat droppings that were then transmitted to a pangolin, the virus circulated amongst that community until a infected pangolin was captured and the virus was then transferred to humans at a market in Wuhan in China!

 

[Tigerboy]

o...k....
you have a good afternoon out there

Not at the game. Would be pretty unwise at this stage, IMO, but I can’t *pretend* to know where the basis of this scientific evidence is coming from and whether it’s accurate or not.

Huge Hillsong conference wrapping up this weekend thx to PM... hope ur not among those

THERE are currently a tonne of Coronaviridae out there and causing a **wide** variety of insignificant and annoying to potentially life threatening symptoms.

The question really remains; where did this come from within the animal kingdom and why so virulent?

The working theory is that it game from bat droppings that were then transmitted to a pangolin, the virus circulated amongst that community until a infected pangolin was captured and the virus was then transferred to humans at a market in Wuhan in China!

Also what I’ve heard. How about the fact that cats and dogs are actually perfect hosts?

No obvious cure in sight

Timing is off with this thing.

 

[cochise]

o...k....
you have a good afternoon out there

Not at the game. Would be pretty unwise at this stage, IMO, but I can’t *pretend* to know where the basis of this scientific evidence is coming from and whether it’s accurate or not.

Huge Hillsong conference wrapping up this weekend thx to PM... hope ur not among those

THERE are currently a tonne of Coronaviridae out there and causing a **wide** variety of insignificant and annoying to potentially life threatening symptoms.

The question really remains; where did this come from within the animal kingdom and why so virulent?

The working theory is that it game from bat droppings that were then transmitted to a pangolin, the virus circulated amongst that community until a infected pangolin was captured and the virus was then transferred to humans at a market in Wuhan in China!

Also what I’ve heard. How about the fact that cats and dogs are actually perfect hosts?

No obvious cure in sight

Timing is off with this thing.

The big problem with have is the live animal trade in Asia, it brings together animal from different countries and habitats and virus and diseases are transferred amongst the animals there. These virus then mutate while being transmitted through different spiecies and it is created a melting pot where these deadly virus can be created and then spread to humans!

 

[jirskyr]

I’m slightly concerned about the fact I had a staph infection 9 months ago …but Dr thinks I shouldn’t worry …unfortunately I don’t trust the medical profession

That's not a good place to start, esp in the current climate, to distrust medics.

I'm not a medic but you shouldn't have an issue with a staph infection from 9 months ago unless you are still ill from it.

 

[Geo]

I’m slightly concerned about the fact I had a staph infection 9 months ago …but Dr thinks I shouldn’t worry …unfortunately I don’t trust the medical profession

That's not a good place to start, esp in the current climate, to distrust medics.

I'm not a medic but you shouldn't have an issue with a staph infection from 9 months ago unless you are still ill from it.

MSRA stays in your system a long time

 

[Sco77y]

I'm not sure how to interpret the numbers that are being put out there, especially around mortality rates. Despite all numbers being accurate so far, do we really have a big enough sample size to determine anything substantial about the risk of this virus? Of course it makes sense to take into account all of the available information we have so far, and base our decisions for any action on this, but ~80,000 infected in China (with a population over 1 billion), thousands in other countries and hundreds in others (like here), this is an extremely small percentage of populations affected, no? We definitely don't know the full extent of this, whether it be better or worse than anyone thought.

 

[happy_tiger]

I’m slightly concerned about the fact I had a staph infection 9 months ago …but Dr thinks I shouldn’t worry …unfortunately I don’t trust the medical profession

That's not a good place to start, esp in the current climate, to distrust medics.

I'm not a medic but you shouldn't have an issue with a staph infection from 9 months ago unless you are still ill from it.

Well I was told that some surgeons may not touch me with a ten foot pole

I trust my local GP , but as far as surgeons go .....so many screw ups whether it was Drs ...Hospitals ....

 

[Papacito]

Wow, there's some real tinfoil hat type talk in this thread.

Corona leads to flu like symptoms, but it is not the flu.

It kills more people. More key, it puts way more ***healthy*** people in hospital.

If your mum, dad, grandfather or grandmother falls ill, there may be less chance of care.

We've had decades of under spending on hospitals. Now that the **** has hit the fan, plenty of elites are diving for cover under misinformation.

There's nothing to gain from talking tough.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

my workplace has started selecting people to trial work from home i guess lots of offices might do this soon to stop the public transport

 

[jirskyr]

I’m slightly concerned about the fact I had a staph infection 9 months ago …but Dr thinks I shouldn’t worry …unfortunately I don’t trust the medical profession

That's not a good place to start, esp in the current climate, to distrust medics.

I'm not a medic but you shouldn't have an issue with a staph infection from 9 months ago unless you are still ill from it.

MSRA stays in your system a long time

Did happy actually have MRSA?

Also - MRSA doesn't necessarily "stay in your system". You may clear it almost entirely, or you may become colonised - there's no specific recipe, it depends on the person. Something like 30% of the community has staph on their skin or in mucal folds at any given time, without necessarily being ill, and about 5% have MRSA. Staph is very common in the community, but just cause you've had an infection, MRSA or MSSA, doesn't necessarily mean it's "hanging around".

I have done 3 research studies on MRSA in hospitals across Asia Pacific.