Coronavirus Outbreak

[weststigers]

“It’s like a mild cold unless you’re old or have underlying health issues” they said…new research is suggesting otherwise. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

You probably aren't at risk of dying but it's not a joke and we have no immunity to this virus.

I'm not worried about dying. I'm worried about needing to go to hospital, no bed being available and then dying.

The point of the post was that we were lied to.

 

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

 

[Tiger5150]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

Thats all good but I also hope you understood my point about the graphs you are analysing. I dont think you are interpreting them correctly. To make my point, which of the three following trajectories is the current Australian one and which is the Italian one?



 

 

[weststigers]

Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what’s some of what I was told this morning

We need to calm down. That prediction is over the top. We are at 877 today. It's not doubling every day.

At the same time we need to stop the "she'll be right" attitude. If we don't stop this we will end up like Europe.

The issue is that a lot of people weren't tested - they were told to self-isolate for 2 weeks instead.

Multiple stories have come about people not being able to get a test despite showing symptoms.

Think of how many people wouldn't have wanted their income affected and went to work anyway up to now.

I would actually be impressed if 877 was our real figure considering how many people from China, Italy, Iran etc. would have freely crossed our border since the virus started.

This happened in our summer - at the peak of the tourist season. We aren't even taking temperatures at the airport. The number seems quite low all things considered.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.

 

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.

What do you mean?

 

[Tim Sheens]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.


What do you mean?

My posts/replies are getting mixed up again and it seems that I have been looking at a now edited graph post.

All of them are the same, no? Also, are they new, or a total, as it makes it hard to know?

 

[earl]

This happened in our summer - at the peak of the tourist season. We aren’t even taking temperatures at the airport. The number seems quite low all things considered.

We don't know just yet. You could be right and we could be completely screwed already. Maybe that is why the government is holding off in relation to a lockdown. Maybe they are just waiting to see how many more positive cases we record.

I assume you are implying that this could get a lot worse in winter and I agree.

My only point is let's hold off on the panic until we have facts but at the same let's all be really careful and practice social distancing, not hoarding food & toilet paper etc. In 2 weeks to a months time if we appear to have avoided the same trajectory that has occurred in other countries then we can reassess where we are at.

The handling of the cruise ship situation was extremely poor by the people that went ahead with their trip and the way the government handled releasing those people back into society. These people probably aren't the most socially aware and may be more likely to not practice self-isolation. Maybe every passenger released should have had enforced self-isolation in a government approved and funded facility.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Until some in the community witness the end result of the virus, they will not change their behaviour.

Australians going on cruises, many of them elderly, when what was coming was known is disgraceful. Self interest and an unwillingness to be disciplined will result in our health staff and resources being pushed over the limit like Italy. I find that when trouble occurs, it is the same people who cry for help.

 

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.


What do you mean?

All of them are Italy, no?

Ah you were referring to my graphs? I think you quoted the wrong one pf my posts and I was confused.

All of those graphs are Australia, and it is VASTLY different to the Italian trajectory. Thats my point. In those graphs that you are referencing they have manipulated the axis so that they look the same, but the data is WAY different. Yesterday we were 10 days past 100 cases, we had 850 cases, Italy had 3089.

I have plotted the data for you on linear graphs with identical scale axis to demonstrate what the ACTUAL figures look like. THese are the graphs for confirmed cases for each day since both countries were at 100 cases (08/03/20 for us) They are nothing like each other. Plenty to be concerned about but following Italys trajectory simply isnt one. EDIT just noted the titles I put on the graphs are wrong, these are not "daily cases
they are total confirmed cases, daily.




 

[twentyforty]

The PM's "Stop It" statement is up there with the most cringeworthy statements I've seen from a politician. He sounded like a kid getting picked on in the playground.

I can't imagine Obama addressing the nation with such a whiny pathetic statement.

I don’t like him, but idk what was wrong with saying it. It’s the truth. People are insane and need to be told. Not that they will listen. Too dumb.

Exactly. It was to the point. Can't be any clearer really, but again, people do not listen.

Like the bushfires, we was way too late on this one.

Regardless of whether it's a really problem, the average punter has been seeing empty shelves for months and sees it as a problem.

He didn't really say much either, other than a pathetic plead.

If you can't tell, I'm not his biggest fan 🙂


Try to not let it cloud your judgement

If you like the Prime Minister can have Military personnel with automatic weapons at the Supermarket doors if you like .. maybe trying to talk to an imbecilic population was a starting point but if that fails go straight to plan B ! Would that be whiny and pathetic?

We have that already in some parts of the country. Have done for years. Personally, I feel a little uneasy shopping at the supermarket when it’s jackbooted security have automatic long arms.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what’s some of what I was told this morning

We need to calm down. That prediction is over the top. We are at 877 today. It's not doubling every day.

At the same time we need to stop the "she'll be right" attitude. If we don't stop this we will end up like Europe.

The issue is that a lot of people weren't tested - they were told to self-isolate for 2 weeks instead.

Multiple stories have come about people not being able to get a test despite showing symptoms.

Think of how many people wouldn't have wanted their income affected and went to work anyway up to now.

I would actually be impressed if 877 was our real figure considering how many people from China, Italy, Iran etc. would have freely crossed our border since the virus started.

This happened in our summer - at the peak of the tourist season. We aren't even taking temperatures at the airport. The number seems quite low all things considered.

The seasons are likely to play a huge part and it also goes back to the trust point earlier. Truth and knowledge are paramount in times of crisis, particularly when health related.

It is very disheartening to see the lack of, what many, like ourselves would see as a mandatory approaches, such as temperature testing of international arrivals still being non-existent. Such measures should have been implemented long ago and probably in the shadow of the direct travel ban from China.

Whether the lack of action were based on medical or political advice and decisions, the buck stops at Peter Dutton on these issues and it is quite ironic that he succumbed to the virus.

 

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

Regan, with respect, if your "source" told you we would be 14000 cases by Tuesday, I wouldnt worry about your 01/04/20 information either.

Ask him what Curtis Rona is up to.

 

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.


What do you mean?

My posts/replies are getting mixed up again and it seems that I have been looking at a now edited graph post.

All of them are the same, no? Also, are they new, or a total, as it makes it hard to know?

AS stated elsewhere, they are all Australian, total confirmed cases. THats kinda my point you can not extrapolate any information Aus v Italy from the graphs you are looking at because they have scaled the axis so they look the same. I have posted lower Aus v Italy on the same scale axis.

(just clarifying that the graph post, all I edited was I changed one of the graphs, not trying to mislead)

 

[Geo]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..

 

[Tim Sheens]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.


What do you mean?

My posts/replies are getting mixed up again and it seems that I have been looking at a now edited graph post.

All of them are the same, no? Also, are they new, or a total, as it makes it hard to know?

Quoting myself for your knowledge @Tiger5150 , rather than your later graph one, so that you understand where I was coming from.

If you look back at the graphs that I originally posted you should see that the 'x' axis is consistent, whilst the 'y' axis on those are numerically balanced, not identical, but showing a very similar curve and that is why I see them as relevant.

Edit; half wrote this during cooking, so again out of order and hard (for me) to use this site on landscape view on my tablet.

 

[weststigers]

This happened in our summer - at the peak of the tourist season. We aren’t even taking temperatures at the airport. The number seems quite low all things considered.

We don't know just yet. You could be right and we could be completely screwed already. Maybe that is why the government is holding off in relation to a lockdown. Maybe they are just waiting to see how many more positive cases we record.

I assume you are implying that this could get a lot worse in winter and I agree.

My only point is let's hold off on the panic until we have facts but at the same let's all be really careful and practice social distancing, not hoarding food & toilet paper etc. In 2 weeks to a months time if we appear to have avoided the same trajectory that has occurred in other countries then we can reassess where we are at.

The handling of the cruise ship situation was extremely poor by the people that went ahead with their trip and the way the government handled releasing those people back into society. These people probably aren't the most socially aware and may be more likely to not practice self-isolation. Maybe every passenger released should have had enforced self-isolation in a government approved and funded facility.

No one is panicking.

People are simply assessing the facts as they come in and are trying to make logical conclusions as to what this means for them. On a psychological level, it's the only thing in their control. It's become evident over this period that health data is not a reliable measure of the immediate situation and we have many examples across the world to draw our conclusions from.

If you've ever studied economic crises in particular, you'll know that panic buying is a totally normal human reaction in these cases.

I keep hearing "you can't eat toilet paper" or "coronavirus doesn't make you go to the toilet" as reasons why toilet paper shortages are irrational.

People have missed the point. Nobody is buying because of that. It's that the people aren't stupid and they knew things would get worse. They didn't want to be lining up in queues with everyone else to get basic supplies.

They knew that with everyone home from work, and everyone buying at the same time, there would be nothing on the shelves anyway. Our supply chains are not designed to push products to stores fast enough for these one-off scenarios. It's inevitable you will have shortages of things that last a long time and/or have multiple uses - things that last a long time are, of course, not produced in our regular supply chains as quickly as perishable items. This is especially true when people are unclear as to how long they'll have to be at home.

Throughout history, the same items have been missing from shelves in times like this. Look up Venezuela...exactly the same products were in short supply as what we are experiencing here. This should come as no surprise.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

 

[weststigers]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

Precisely what I was worried about way back when we only had a handful of cases and the outbreak in Italy exploded. I doubted the CCP figures and questioned whether or not this was in fact as benign as was being reported (reports based on Chinese information).

A few weeks ago this would have been labelled alarmist.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

Precisely what I was worried about way back when we only had a handful of cases and the outbreak in Italy exploded. I doubted the CCP figures and questioned whether or not this was in fact as benign as was being reported (reports based on Chinese information).

A few weeks ago this would have been labelled alarmist.

I saw a post in the SMH in comments that we used to have 8 hospital beds per 1000 people and now half that. This is very distubing.