Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning


There is no model that results in 14000 by Tuesday. At the worst of the crisis in China & Italy they were doubling every 1.5 days which would put us at 4250 on Tuesday. At the current exponential rate, we will be at 1800 on Tuesday.

I dont think there is any way that it is possible we could have 14000 cases by Tuesday unless they all of a sudden tested everybody and found it to be more widespread than current testing.

At a quick glance, all of them.


What do you mean?

My posts/replies are getting mixed up again and it seems that I have been looking at a now edited graph post.

All of them are the same, no? Also, are they new, or a total, as it makes it hard to know?

Quoting myself for your knowledge @Tiger5150 , rather than your later graph one, so that you understand where I was coming from.

If you look back at the graphs that I originally posted you should see that the 'x' axis is consistent, whilst the 'y' axis on those are numerically balanced, not identical, but showing a very similar curve and that is why I see them as relevant.

Edit; half wrote this during cooking, so again out of order and hard (for me) to use this site on landscape view on my tablet.

All good, thanks for the clarification. My point is that the reason that they are a very similar curve is that that is the nature of exponential graphs, they by definition all look exactly the same and the ONLY difference in any two exponential graphs is the exponential multiplier and this is totally lost once you start manipulating the axis. The graphs you are looking at have had the y axis changed in such as way that they look identical. IMO it has been done that way intentionally to be alarmist and instill panic and get clicks.

If you look at my post with the graphs, these are the same (and correct) data on consistent axis and as you can see they are starkly different. We are not on the Italian trajectory.

 

[earl]

This article takes a different viewpoint on this issue:- https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

I think we need to be really careful with the data all over the world.

This is an interesting statistical breakdown:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

In those stats China had 56 cases per million population. Italy are at a level of 778 and Australia at a level of 34.

These are the best stats we have but even in Australia we aren't testing people properly because we can't. I think people testing positive are probably more likely to be the really sick and the mortality rate is vastly over-stated.

I can see multiple disasters here - firstly the loss of human life and secondly an economic stuff-up that will hurt us for years. I'm worried the economic stuff-up will be worse than the loss of human life.

 

[Snake]

The US overnight from 6000 to 190000

 

[Tiger5150]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

What a disgraceful piece of journalism. "It seems you will either live, and recover, or die".

It is bad, its clearly bad but sensationalised journalism like this serves no purpose other than to instill fear and panic. This video shows what happens when the numbers exceed the ICU beds, nothing more or less. None of those patients were on respirators and as stated it was emergency triage. Then they show a waiting room converted and full of patients, but they were clearly NOT COVID patients (no masks or protection on patients or staff).

All over the world the mortality rate is around 1% except countries where it blew out and then the increased mortality is due to lack of medical care.

Italy has 47000 cases of COVID, that video states that 3500 have died but only 4000 have recovered. So there are 40000 people in that hospital? Impressive.

Sensationalised journalism like this is disgraceful IMO in times like these.

 

[weststigers]

Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what’s some of what I was told this morning

We need to calm down. That prediction is over the top. We are at 877 today. It's not doubling every day.

At the same time we need to stop the "she'll be right" attitude. If we don't stop this we will end up like Europe.

The issue is that a lot of people weren't tested - they were told to self-isolate for 2 weeks instead.

Multiple stories have come about people not being able to get a test despite showing symptoms.

Think of how many people wouldn't have wanted their income affected and went to work anyway up to now.

I would actually be impressed if 877 was our real figure considering how many people from China, Italy, Iran etc. would have freely crossed our border since the virus started.

This happened in our summer - at the peak of the tourist season. We aren't even taking temperatures at the airport. The number seems quite low all things considered.

The seasons are likely to play a huge part and it also goes back to the trust point earlier. Truth and knowledge are paramount in times of crisis, particularly when health related.

It is very disheartening to see the lack of, what many, like ourselves would see as a mandatory approaches, such as temperature testing of international arrivals still being non-existent. Such measures should have been implemented long ago and probably in the shadow of the direct travel ban from China.

Whether the lack of action were based on medical or political advice and decisions, the buck stops at Peter Dutton on these issues and it is quite ironic that he succumbed to the virus.

I was with you until you blamed it all on Dutton...

 

[Tiger5150]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..

Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

 

[Tiger5150]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

Precisely what I was worried about way back when we only had a handful of cases and the outbreak in Italy exploded. I doubted the CCP figures and questioned whether or not this was in fact as benign as was being reported (reports based on Chinese information).

A few weeks ago this would have been labelled alarmist.

It (the journalism in the video, not you or pawsandclaws) is incredibly alarmist and horribly misleading. You realise that they are suggesting a 50% mortality rate? 50%!!!! Its not 50% its around 1%. This is the very definition of alarmist.

 

[Mighty_Tiger]

If anyone wants a job call center operators will be a flurry next few weeks.

India started their lockdown and big companies are in panic mode on how to support

Might be good opportunity to at least get some cash if anyone needs it

 

[Tiger5150]

The US overnight from 6000 to 190000

I think you need to double check your sources Snake. US overnight from 13000 to 19000. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The US numbers are going to spike badly simply because as of a week ago they had only tested 8500 people. Their testing has been some of the lowest in the world and as they scramble toi catch up on testing, their numbers are going to skyrocket.

 

[cochise]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..

That is because we can't get the resources to do such testing, it is coming. Testing and chasing up contact to break the transmission chain has been shown to be extremely effective in slowing the spread in both South Korea and Singapore!

 

[Tiger5150]

What if I was to tell you that we will get to a total of 250,000 confirmed cases and 4000 people will die?

How would you all feel about that? Personally after studying all the data daily and scanning all over the world, I'd be mortified.

Please consider this when you read this article from almost a year ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/07/flu-experts-predict-4000-australians-will-die-from-influenza-this-year

In 2017, 250,000 Aussies tested positive to seasonal flu and on average 4000 die each year 2015-2017 Influenza killed 10671 people (https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/b7168df5-4678-42fd-afc3-6a0fc7fddf88/phe-229-data-tables.xlsx.aspx). 2017 data extrapolates to a mortality rate of 1.6% . With our current confirmed cases of COVID, we have a mortality rate of 0.8%.

I dont want to be seen as a COVID denier but if we were tracking the seasonal flu daily like we are with COVID we would also be freaking out.

 

[cochise]

The US overnight from 6000 to 190000

They have really ramped up testing over there, they now have drive thru testing stations. The US was not at all prepared for this situation and I think he could get quite ugly over there!

 

[cochise]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html


What a disgraceful piece of journalism. "It seems you will either live, and recover, or die".

It is bad, its clearly bad but sensationalised journalism like this serves no purpose other than to instill fear and panic. This video shows what happens when the numbers exceed the ICU beds, nothing more or less. None of those patients were on respirators and as stated it was emergency triage. Then they show a waiting room converted and full of patients, but they were clearly NOT COVID patients (no masks or protection on patients or staff).

All over the world the mortality rate is around 1% except countries where it blew out and then the increased mortality is due to lack of medical care.

Italy has 47000 cases of COVID, that video states that 3500 have died but only 4000 have recovered. So there are 40000 people in that hospital? Impressive.

Sensationalised journalism like this is disgraceful IMO in times like these.

Disgraceful and dangerous, panic will lead to many more deaths because as soon as someone shows signs of a cold they are going to start using up resources of people who really need them.

 

[cochise]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

Precisely what I was worried about way back when we only had a handful of cases and the outbreak in Italy exploded. I doubted the CCP figures and questioned whether or not this was in fact as benign as was being reported (reports based on Chinese information).

A few weeks ago this would have been labelled alarmist.


It (the journalism in the video, not you or pawsandclaws) is incredibly alarmist and horribly misleading. You realise that they are suggesting a 50% mortality rate? 50%!!!! Its not 50% its around 1%. This is the very definition of alarmist.

To be fair the mortality rate in Italy is going to be much higher than 1%, but you are right it is alarmist and even Italy will come in much below the 50%

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html


What a disgraceful piece of journalism. "It seems you will either live, and recover, or die".

It is bad, its clearly bad but sensationalised journalism like this serves no purpose other than to instill fear and panic. This video shows what happens when the numbers exceed the ICU beds, nothing more or less. None of those patients were on respirators and as stated it was emergency triage. Then they show a waiting room converted and full of patients, but they were clearly NOT COVID patients (no masks or protection on patients or staff).

All over the world the mortality rate is around 1% except countries where it blew out and then the increased mortality is due to lack of medical care.

Italy has 47000 cases of COVID, that video states that 3500 have died but only 4000 have recovered. So there are 40000 people in that hospital? Impressive.

Sensationalised journalism like this is disgraceful IMO in times like these.

Disgraceful and dangerous, panic will lead to many more deaths because as soon as someone shows signs of a cold they are going to start using up resources of people who really need them.

Who are the people who really need the resources? Do we help those who knowlingly boarded a cruise ship in the midst of this situation, contract the virus and then expect help?

 

[Tim Sheens]

Not going to bog this down with further debate over whether or not an individual understands how to read a graph or parameters within them for now, nor after this sentence, go over the matter of a minister that trumpets his border protection record having to now take responsibility for failures.

Facts are just that, possibly alarming, but not alarmist. If roughly half of a region's hospital patients, including some emergency cases that not infected, are dying because of the strain, then it needs to be broadcast to warn others and enable them to mitigate such a scenario. It's starkness is also likely the only way to get through to some people, as many are flaunting their necessary role and responsibility in this crisis.

Every society is going to be affected somewhat differently, but look to the screenshot below showing some of restrictions put in place in the region shown in that hospital video, yet despite quarantine measures starting there nearly a month ago, the nation's total rose by more than 600 in the day since it was published.


 

[cochise]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html


What a disgraceful piece of journalism. "It seems you will either live, and recover, or die".

It is bad, its clearly bad but sensationalised journalism like this serves no purpose other than to instill fear and panic. This video shows what happens when the numbers exceed the ICU beds, nothing more or less. None of those patients were on respirators and as stated it was emergency triage. Then they show a waiting room converted and full of patients, but they were clearly NOT COVID patients (no masks or protection on patients or staff).

All over the world the mortality rate is around 1% except countries where it blew out and then the increased mortality is due to lack of medical care.

Italy has 47000 cases of COVID, that video states that 3500 have died but only 4000 have recovered. So there are 40000 people in that hospital? Impressive.

Sensationalised journalism like this is disgraceful IMO in times like these.

Disgraceful and dangerous, panic will lead to many more deaths because as soon as someone shows signs of a cold they are going to start using up resources of people who really need them.

Who are the people who really need the resources? Do we help those who knowlingly boarded a cruise ship in the midst of this situation, contract the virus and then expect help?

Ok i'll paint it out for you. If we have people panicking because they have a cold and these people start showing up at testing centres and hospitals because of alarmist nonsense like you are a 50% chance of dying like that article is pushing then the people who really need help won't get the help they need. That is why balanced reporting is critical in times of crisis!

 

[Tiger5150]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

Precisely what I was worried about way back when we only had a handful of cases and the outbreak in Italy exploded. I doubted the CCP figures and questioned whether or not this was in fact as benign as was being reported (reports based on Chinese information).

A few weeks ago this would have been labelled alarmist.


It (the journalism in the video, not you or pawsandclaws) is incredibly alarmist and horribly misleading. You realise that they are suggesting a 50% mortality rate? 50%!!!! Its not 50% its around 1%. This is the very definition of alarmist.

To be fair the mortality rate in Italy is going to be much higher than 1%, but you are right it is alarmist and even Italy will come in much below the 50%

Agreed that it will be higher than 1% but how much higher is a reflection of the availability of medical care, not the mortality of the virus.

 

[cochise]

The link includes highly distressing SkyNews film of a hospital in Lombardy, Northern Italy. In short, the numbers who die and those who recover are roughly equal. The specialist becomes agitated when the commentator suggests it is like the flu, stating no it is pneumonia. He warns the commentator of what Britain is about to face.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-hit-245-000-worldwide-uk-advisors-says-social-distancing-may-last-for-a-year-20200320-p54cfl.html

Precisely what I was worried about way back when we only had a handful of cases and the outbreak in Italy exploded. I doubted the CCP figures and questioned whether or not this was in fact as benign as was being reported (reports based on Chinese information).

A few weeks ago this would have been labelled alarmist.


It (the journalism in the video, not you or pawsandclaws) is incredibly alarmist and horribly misleading. You realise that they are suggesting a 50% mortality rate? 50%!!!! Its not 50% its around 1%. This is the very definition of alarmist.

To be fair the mortality rate in Italy is going to be much higher than 1%, but you are right it is alarmist and even Italy will come in much below the 50%


Agreed that it will be higher than 1% but how much higher is a reflection of the availability of medical care, not the mortality of the virus.

Correct!

 

[Tiger5150]

Not going to bog this down with further debate over whether or not an individual understands how to read a graph or parameters within them for now, nor after this sentence, go over the matter of a minister that trumpets his border protection record having to now take responsibility for failures.

Facts are just that, possibly alarming, but not alarmist. If roughly half of a region's hospital patients, including some emergency cases that not infected, are dying because of the strain, then it needs to be broadcast to warn others and enable them to mitigate such a scenario. It's starkness is also likely the only way to get through to some people, as many are flaunting their necessary role and responsibility in this crisis.

Every society is going to be affected somewhat differently, but look to the screenshot below showing some of restrictions put in place in the region shown in that hospital video, yet despite quarantine measures starting there nearly a month ago, the nation's total rose by more than 600 in the day since it was published.


EDIT: Not being a smartarse but not sure if you realise that this is a US article... "Much like us" at 100 ***deaths***. Not much like us.

Deaths increased by 600 which means tens of thousands of infections. Those quarantine measures were directly responsible for spreading the virus (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-update-italy-warns-against-mass-exodus-as-thousands-flee-red-zone/ar-BB10UO37). Panic and fear are the most dangerous elements of this epidemic.

Australia is NOT (as clearly shown by those pesky data and graphs) on the same trajectory as Italy and the parameters are totally different (demographics, pop density, health system, govt strategies etc). Doesnt mean its going to be good here, probably not but again its nowhere near Italy's situation.