Coronavirus Outbreak

[cochise]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..


Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

Oh cool..doesn't really help those that may have contracted the virus that can't be tested..or their loved one's

As a former Tigers great once said “it is what it is”. I’m pretty sure anyone sick enough to arrive at hospital get tested.

That’s 1 thing that I don’t think you or @cochise realise... we’ve probably (all three of us) has family members or loved ones already exposed and not tested due to this international instability regarding truthful info/supply & demand

Yes we may have, but I am ok with that due to the situation we are in. I don't believe anyone is lying to us and everyone is doing their best to deal with this situation.

How do we mass test without the required supplies, this is an area the authorities have stated they are looking to improved and can be seen through the development of our own testing procedures that do not rely on the same components the rest of the world are using!

 

[Tiger5150]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..


Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

Oh cool..doesn't really help those that may have contracted the virus that can't be tested..or their loved one's

As a former Tigers great once said “it is what it is”. I’m pretty sure anyone sick enough to arrive at hospital get tested.

That’s 1 thing that I don’t think you or @cochise realise... we’ve probably (all three of us) has family members or loved ones already exposed and not tested due to this international instability regarding truthful info/supply & demand

Mate, scroll back (if you could be bothered) I actually think I might have had it (with good reason) and that’s a good case in point.

I am healthy (now) and recovered reasonably quickly. Why would you blow a scarce valuable test kit on me? You would just tell me to self isolate.

 

[InBenjiWeTrust]

Did anyone notice how only males and females acquired vocid-19??? If you are one of other 57+ genders you're laughing, for a reference see the crowd at Bondi Beach yesterday!

 

[Tigerboy]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..


Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

Oh cool..doesn't really help those that may have contracted the virus that can't be tested..or their loved one's

As a former Tigers great once said “it is what it is”. I’m pretty sure anyone sick enough to arrive at hospital get tested.

That’s 1 thing that I don’t think you or @cochise realise... we’ve probably (all three of us) has family members or loved ones already exposed and not tested due to this international instability regarding truthful info/supply & demand

Yes we may have, but I am ok with that due to the situation we are in. I don't believe anyone is lying to us and everyone is doing their best to deal with this situation.

How do we mass test without the required supplies, this is an area the authorities have stated they are looking to improved and can be seen through the development of our own testing procedures that do not rely on the same components the rest of the world are using!

So they’re actively telling you that they’ll be testing differently to The Rest of The World?

You’re just going stump up whatever’s required and keep your mouth shut for the sake of *your* family alone? How do we keep even accurate reports within our own medical records if the “experts” cannot consistently agree on a preferred method and time frame for results.

By the way, the answer isn’t “we may have”...

I’ll continue to press the hard questions out of my good, good friend in the field and hope to make sense of his answers - usually by coming to some kind of middle ground. The way that he’s acting out of character lately and has his lips locked to me now is evidence that we know nothing! Please stop saying not to panic.

My wife’s family are being massacred in their home town due to cultural practises and an outdated, but somewhat beautiful healthcare system. No BODY predicted it?

So, I won’t just keep my mouth shut, and if it’s absolutely required would be willing to die here for my fellow men to see not panicking is good, but having morals and values that can’t be corrupted by times of crisis, is great - much as you say toward the end of your post. The rest does seem a little naive despite my usual propensity to agree with all you say!

Mate this virus is causing all kinds of social and humanitarian issues as it stands but TESTING kits are one of the hotly contested issues ATM and I find it hard to believe what any politician, world wide, is being forced to say right now (in order to avoid inducement of panic). Economy is obviously the longer term issue!

Vaccine definitely no. 2 and we’re clueless as it stands. In fact - we are behind the curve here.

 

[Tigerboy]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..


Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

Oh cool..doesn't really help those that may have contracted the virus that can't be tested..or their loved one's

As a former Tigers great once said “it is what it is”. I’m pretty sure anyone sick enough to arrive at hospital get tested.

That’s 1 thing that I don’t think you or @cochise realise... we’ve probably (all three of us) has family members or loved ones already exposed and not tested due to this international instability regarding truthful info/supply & demand


Mate, scroll back (if you could be bothered) I actually think I might have had it (with good reason) and that’s a good case in point.

I am healthy (now) and recovered reasonably quickly. Why would you blow a scarce valuable test kit on me? You would just tell me to self isolate.

That’s quite a fair point, 5150. Totally agree that humans’ greed and “no need to panic” attitude can help during more isolated and potentially more immediately severe catastrophes.

If we want, however, to really talk about statistics like you ARE - you need to have a full picture.

Thanks mate, just scientific facts

 

[Snake]

Bondi shut

Had to happen due to the stupidity of Australians!

Seriously... we went to Cronulla yesterday

Lifeguards even seemed stress although no clear directives on isolation measures/an inability to enforce it and so I say let the people decide?

It really is up to us just how bad this gets, but by the same token, what’s next?

FED police posted on all major outdoor settings

I think it must be very serious as Bondi is also a huge tourist destination and to basically flip the bird to anybody who travelled over before this started and just as summer ends about whatever their plans regarding the virus were? There’ll be absolutely no REAL spending now so why not go the full monte or *at least* shut down the CBD and public transport entirely for few weeks. You seem to be almost excessively rational right now!

Have you heard of curfews and Marshall Law do not think this will not happen ... if you do not do what you are told you will be forced !

 

[Mr_Magpie]

Should be interesting tomorrow (Sunday) if they try to only let 500 onto Bondi, or any other beach for that matter. Reckon we could see some trouble. Might head to a quiet, safe place - like the empty loo paper aisle at Woolies. :blush:

 

[mike]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

I think whoever told you added an extra zero on the end. 1400 yes, 14,000 that would make it the worst in the world at this stage by a long margin. The figures don’t back this up.

 

[Tiger5150]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..


Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

Oh cool..doesn't really help those that may have contracted the virus that can't be tested..or their loved one's

As a former Tigers great once said “it is what it is”. I’m pretty sure anyone sick enough to arrive at hospital get tested.

That’s 1 thing that I don’t think you or @cochise realise... we’ve probably (all three of us) has family members or loved ones already exposed and not tested due to this international instability regarding truthful info/supply & demand

Yes we may have, but I am ok with that due to the situation we are in. I don't believe anyone is lying to us and everyone is doing their best to deal with this situation.

How do we mass test without the required supplies, this is an area the authorities have stated they are looking to improved and can be seen through the development of our own testing procedures that do not rely on the same components the rest of the world are using!

So they’re actively telling you that they’ll be testing differently to The Rest of The World?

You’re just going stump up whatever’s required and keep your mouth shut for the sake of *your* family alone? How do we keep even accurate reports within our own medical records if the “experts” cannot consistently agree on a preferred method and time frame for results.

By the way, the answer isn’t “we may have”...

I’ll continue to press the hard questions out of my good, good friend in the field and hope to make sense of his answers - usually by coming to some kind of middle ground. The way that he’s acting out of character lately and has his lips locked to me now is evidence that we know nothing! Please stop saying not to panic.

My wife’s family are being massacred in their home town due to cultural practises and an outdated, but somewhat beautiful healthcare system. No BODY predicted it?

So, I won’t just keep my mouth shut, and if it’s absolutely required would be willing to die here for my fellow men to see not panicking is good, but having morals and values that can’t be corrupted by times of crisis, is great - much as you say toward the end of your post. The rest does seem a little naive despite my usual propensity to agree with all you say!

Mate this virus is causing all kinds of social and humanitarian issues as it stands but TESTING kits are one of the hotly contested issues ATM and I find it hard to believe what any politician, world wide, is being forced to say right now (in order to avoid inducement of panic). Economy is obviously the longer term issue!

Vaccine definitely no. 2 and we’re clueless as it stands. In fact - we are behind the curve here.

Mate we are one of the highest testing countries in the world but there is a finite number of kits available so some priority system is necessary.

I WAS worried about testing levels but not as worried lately. The reason I am less concerned is a few reasons. Firstly we have carried out over90k tests which compared to population is not a big number but compared to positive results and presumably to those with symptoms (and definitely any presenting to hospital) IS a big number. Secondly and more importantly if the testing levels were insufficient, you could be sure that positive results would be inconsistent. I have been monitoring this outbreak mathematically and I have been amazed and concerned about how consistent and predictably this is progressing. I started plotting this over a week ago and forecast numbers ahead at the exponential rate and my forecast is usually within 10. This is marching on relentlessly.

 

[Regan]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

I think whoever told you added an extra zero on the end. 1400 yes, 14,000 that would make it the worst in the world at this stage by a long margin. The figures don’t back this up.

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

Also the army in South Australia is ready to take over the food distribution and if it gets to your lungs they carnt help you must stop it in your throat which people are not talking about but the person i spoke with in SA was talking to me about also the doctors in SA are sh#tting there pants

very upset with the ScoMo putting the economics before people

there is more but dont care to post but lock down 2 of april so good luck

 

[Tiger5150]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

I think whoever told you added an extra zero on the end. 1400 yes, 14,000 that would make it the worst in the world at this stage by a long margin. The figures don’t back this up.

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

Also the army in South Australia is ready to take over the food distribution and if it gets to your lungs they carnt help you must stop it in your throat which people are not talking about but the person i spoke with in SA was talking to me about also the doctors in SA are sh#tting there pants

very upset with the ScoMo putting the economics before people

there is more but dont care to post but lock down 2 of april so good luck

Mate you are either being given poor information or are trolling.

At world established data, 14000 will result in around 1400 hospitalised. Considering that we have an official total of just over 1000, pretty safe to state you source is crazy or you are trolling.

It’s hard to hide dead people (not that I’ve tried). 14000 with 7 dead is a great mortality rate. If any of that was true we should relax and get on with our lives. It’s not unfortunately.

 

[Regan]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

I think whoever told you added an extra zero on the end. 1400 yes, 14,000 that would make it the worst in the world at this stage by a long margin. The figures don’t back this up.

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

Also the army in South Australia is ready to take over the food distribution and if it gets to your lungs they carnt help you must stop it in your throat which people are not talking about but the person i spoke with in SA was talking to me about also the doctors in SA are sh#tting there pants

very upset with the ScoMo putting the economics before people

there is more but dont care to post but lock down 2 of april so good luck

Mate you are either being given poor information or are trolling.

At world established data, 14000 will result in around 1400 hundred hospitalised. Considering that we have an official total of just over 1000, pretty safe to state you source is crazy or you are trolling.

It’s hard to hide dead people (not that I’ve tried). 14000 with 7 dead is a great mortality rate. If any of that was true we should relax and get on with our lives. It’s not unfortunately.

Just what i have been told people are free to make up there own minds

 

[earl]

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

You could be right but that probably means the virus is more benign that what it currently appears to be. Whatever the case we may make 1400 by Monday which is a lot but I can't see it going to 14000. We will never know how many people have the virus and don't get tested but the rest of the world suffers from a similar problem.

There have been tonnes of mistakes made across the world in handling this situation and I think it's unfair to pick on our government. We just aren't prepared for something like this. I don't see why we need to be panicking or thinking that anyone is lying. We are receiving good advice and doing the best we can under the circumstance. Other countries have hopefully gotten through the worst of it and hopefully we can as well.

Let's see what eventuates and hopefully the government does as good a job as they possibly can under the circumstances.

 

[cochise]

The criteria for even getting a test corrupts the figures also..it is true that it was brought in from overseas or had contact with someone who returned from OS tested positive ...Once the 1st case of internal transmission occurred..tests should have been available to all

Unless you meet the criteria you can't even get a test..


Geo that isnt a policy decision, it has been a factor of how many physical test kits exist and can be obtained.

I did read somewhere (I can trawl for it if I have to) that Australia has one of the highest numbers of testing in the world. I read yesterday that we had done around 80000 tests which is small compared to the population but not small compared to the numbers of positives and I assume the number of people who are sick and tick the boxes.

I would be a LOT more concerned if I was in the US. 1 week ago Australia and US had both the same amounts of tests completed at 8500.

Oh cool..doesn't really help those that may have contracted the virus that can't be tested..or their loved one's

As a former Tigers great once said “it is what it is”. I’m pretty sure anyone sick enough to arrive at hospital get tested.

That’s 1 thing that I don’t think you or @cochise realise... we’ve probably (all three of us) has family members or loved ones already exposed and not tested due to this international instability regarding truthful info/supply & demand

Yes we may have, but I am ok with that due to the situation we are in. I don't believe anyone is lying to us and everyone is doing their best to deal with this situation.

How do we mass test without the required supplies, this is an area the authorities have stated they are looking to improved and can be seen through the development of our own testing procedures that do not rely on the same components the rest of the world are using!

So they’re actively telling you that they’ll be testing differently to The Rest of The World?

You’re just going stump up whatever’s required and keep your mouth shut for the sake of *your* family alone? How do we keep even accurate reports within our own medical records if the “experts” cannot consistently agree on a preferred method and time frame for results.

By the way, the answer isn’t “we may have”...

I’ll continue to press the hard questions out of my good, good friend in the field and hope to make sense of his answers - usually by coming to some kind of middle ground. The way that he’s acting out of character lately and has his lips locked to me now is evidence that we know nothing! Please stop saying not to panic.

My wife’s family are being massacred in their home town due to cultural practises and an outdated, but somewhat beautiful healthcare system. No BODY predicted it?

So, I won’t just keep my mouth shut, and if it’s absolutely required would be willing to die here for my fellow men to see not panicking is good, but having morals and values that can’t be corrupted by times of crisis, is great - much as you say toward the end of your post. The rest does seem a little naive despite my usual propensity to agree with all you say!

Mate this virus is causing all kinds of social and humanitarian issues as it stands but TESTING kits are one of the hotly contested issues ATM and I find it hard to believe what any politician, world wide, is being forced to say right now (in order to avoid inducement of panic). Economy is obviously the longer term issue!

Vaccine definitely no. 2 and we’re clueless as it stands. In fact - we are behind the curve here.

Mate we are one of the highest testing countries in the world but there is a finite number of kits available so some priority system is necessary.

I WAS worried about testing levels but not as worried lately. The reason I am less concerned is a few reasons. Firstly we have carried out over90k tests which compared to population is not a big number but compared to positive results and presumably to those with symptoms (and definitely any presenting to hospital) IS a big number. Secondly and more importantly if the testing levels were insufficient, you could be sure that positive results would be inconsistent. I have been monitoring this outbreak mathematically and I have been amazed and concerned about how consistent and predictably this is progressing. I started plotting this over a week ago and forecast numbers ahead at the exponential rate and my forecast is usually within 10. This is marching on relentlessly.

Hey mate, we are now at 113 000 test completed in Australia as of yesterday. With a bit of research I have managed to find the raw data for test worldwide up to today.

 Entity Code Total COVID-19 tests
China - Guangdong 320000
South Korea KOR 316664
Italy ITA 206886
Germany DEU 167000
Russia RUS 143519
United Arab Emirates ARE 125000
Australia AUS 113615
Canada CAN 113121
United States USA 103945
Iran IRN 80000
United Kingdom GBR 64621
Canada - National lab 54956
Norway NOR 43735
Australia - New South Wales 39089
United States - CDC samples tested 37646
France FRA 36747
Spain ESP 30000
Australia - Queensland 27000
Taiwan TWN 21376
Canada - Ontario 19511
Australia - Victoria 19337
Bahrain BHR 18645
Belgium BEL 18360
Canada - Alberta 17013
Australia - South Australia 16717
Belarus BLR 16000
Vietnam VNM 15637
Austria AUT 15613
Japan JPN 14901
India IND 14514
Sweden SWE 14300
Malaysia MYS 13876
Poland POL 13072
Czech Republic CZE 11619
Israel ISR 10864
Denmark DNK 10730
Canada - Quebec 10451
Slovenia SVN 9860
Iceland ISL 9189
Australia - Western Australia 8603
Qatar QAT 8400
Romania ROU 8284
Thailand THA 7084
Ireland IRL 6600
South Africa ZAF 6438
Canada - British Columbia 6326
Netherlands NLD 6000
Hong Kong HKG 5271
Colombia COL 4103
Switzerland CHE 4000
Latvia LVA 3205
Hungary HUN 3007
Finland FIN 3000
Brazil BRA 2927
Turkey TUR 2900
Slovakia SVK 2707
Canada - Saskatchewan 2561
Palestine PSE 2519
Estonia EST 2504
Australia - Australian Capital Territory 2062
Indonesia IDN 2028
Pakistan PAK 1979
Faeroe Islands FRO 1641
Canada - Nova Scotia 1561
Kyrgyzstan KGZ 1545
Panama PAN 1455
Philippines PHL 1269
Croatia HRV 1264
Lithuania LTU 1154
Costa Rica CRI 1039
Malta MLT 889
Armenia ARM 813
Australia - Tasmania 807
New Zealand NZL 584
Canada - New Brunswick 520
Ukraine UKR 316
Mexico MEX 278
Canada - Northwest Territories 222

 

[Tiger5150]

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

You could be right but that probably means the virus is more benign that what it currently appears to be. Whatever the case we may make 1400 by Monday which is a lot but I can't see it going to 14000. We will never know how many people have the virus and don't get tested but the rest of the world suffers from a similar problem.

There have been tonnes of mistakes made across the world in handling this situation and I think it's unfair to pick on our government. We just aren't prepared for something like this. I don't see why we need to be panicking or thinking that anyone is lying. We are receiving good advice and doing the best we can under the circumstance. Other countries have hopefully gotten through the worst of it and hopefully we can as well.

Let's see what eventuates and hopefully the government does as good a job as they possibly can under the circumstances.

Over a week ago I created an exponential progression based on data at the time. It predicted 1065 cases today. It predicts 2040 for Tuesday. Hope I’m wrong but this scarily accurate.

 

[mike]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

I think whoever told you added an extra zero on the end. 1400 yes, 14,000 that would make it the worst in the world at this stage by a long margin. The figures don’t back this up.

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

Also the army in South Australia is ready to take over the food distribution and if it gets to your lungs they carnt help you must stop it in your throat which people are not talking about but the person i spoke with in SA was talking to me about also the doctors in SA are sh#tting there pants

very upset with the ScoMo putting the economics before people

there is more but dont care to post but lock down 2 of april so good luck

You’re not “Smoke” by any chance?

 

[Regan]

also forgot to post if your with the big four banks change to a bank that is worth under 20 billion over 20 billion they have a bail in under 20 billion they can not touch your money it was past in 2016 just google Australia bank bail in 2016

 

[earl]

Please also if you have a sore throat even if you dont just gargle with some salted water it kills it it sits in your throat and multiples super quick then makes its way into your respiratory tract

I don't think that this is true. https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/19/gargling-salt-water-vinegar-not-kill-coronavirus-throat-12421597/

 

[Regan]

Kids aren’t going to school anyway atm. I was told today that all staff at my job could recieve a text saying not to come in the following day at any moment. All libraries in our LGA have been closed, swimming lessons are suspended, and we aren’t taking booking for any parks or facilities.



Just remember the second of April it's a important day

Spike day.


Its happening all around the world

Yeah, with shallow talk about copying the Singapore model, but minus monitoring and wholesale testing, even after generally praising our response a few weeks ago, I no longer feel assured.

I have little to no faith in the strength of most health related decisions made in the past fortnight or so and on that basis of lessons learned overseas, am now expecting to look back on it in an even worse light a fortnight or so from now.

The economy was always going to tank and I worry that because of prioritising an economic, rather than medical approach, despite the mounting evidence, we as a nation are going to suffer unnecessary and unacceptable human loss.



I have had it comfirm lock down is 2 of April with 2 days of leeway if there is unforeseen problems and it will go for 3 weeks maybe 4

I have been looking at the statistics for a while now and particularly so for a week or two. As each day passed and more graphs became available, I have noticed just how much the numbers/plot points playing out right now in Australia resemble the graph spikes of those countries that are suffering massive losses at the moment. Around your date looks about on the money to me.

With the number of the single wedding attendees testing positive now at 35 and likely still rising, I hope that authorities are already setting up additional facilities around the gong region and take community control measures tomorrow.

Why wait..?


You can only shut once and thats the best date with nursing school teachers kids holidays and just before the peak so hospitals can handle it and then you slamm on the breaks

So for the next 12 days or so more people including the nursing school teachers and kids are at risk...




Yes but that date is the best shot at fixing it the experts have agreed so less are hurt its just unfortunate but did you see the dates Qantas are closed also the AFL is so smart there normal season is what 22 or 24 weeks they have announced 17 week season plus lock down and restarting they comp say 5 weeks so the length of the season will be pretty spot on if the lock down works

Well it looks like that will be too late for mine, as the graphs that I am about to post showing our correlation with Italy and Spain, show that we might already be too late.



Post them would love to see them

There are a few up there now and I can post some more, or bar charts, but they pretty well show the same dangerous curve that the others posted above do.

I read them as Australia being as bad or worse at this stage, being a few weeks behind, but on a terrible trajectory. I suppose our response from right now and the ability of our health system to cope will determine our outcome.

What are your and other's thoughts?



Hi on your model does it predict 14000 cases by Tuesday what's some of what I was told this morning

I think whoever told you added an extra zero on the end. 1400 yes, 14,000 that would make it the worst in the world at this stage by a long margin. The figures don’t back this up.

That was the number 14000 just because your not tested does not mean you dont have it

Also the army in South Australia is ready to take over the food distribution and if it gets to your lungs they carnt help you must stop it in your throat which people are not talking about but the person i spoke with in SA was talking to me about also the doctors in SA are sh#tting there pants

very upset with the ScoMo putting the economics before people

there is more but dont care to post but lock down 2 of april so good luck

You’re not “Smoke” by any chance?

No i just know a few people that has some information

 

[Regan]

Please also if you have a sore throat even if you dont just gargle with some salted water it kills it it sits in your throat and multiples super quick then makes its way into your respiratory tract

I don't think that this is true. https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/19/gargling-salt-water-vinegar-not-kill-coronavirus-throat-12421597/

Salt Therapy is useful in the recovery phase of colds and lung infections. It may help to minimise
recurring infection and provide relief from a runny or blocked nose and sore throat. The salt does not
actively kill viruses or bacteria, however it alters the available water and pressure of viral and
bacterial cells within the mucus of the respiratory system. The salty air draws water out of the viral
and bacterial cell causing the virus and bacteria to die. Individuals with long term pseudomonas
infection and recurring pneumonia infections may benefit from Salt Therapy as the salt cleans the
lungs of mucus and reduces inflammation.