Coronavirus Outbreak

[hammertime]

I actually just tracked down the CDC definition of recovered. You need 2 negative swabs, 24-hours apart.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html

So if the virus needs to completely clear from your system, even without symptoms.

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?



Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha


Or it could be as simple as TwentyForty pointed out that it takes about 14 days to recover and 14 days ago there were only 112 cases.

But no......conspiracy. So there are 14000 cases today? Are you going to answer that simple question?

In fairness to Regan, that’s in line with estimates of worst case scenario, which are becoming real

 

[bacon]

Rudy Gobert (NBA 1x All Star- plays for Utah Jazz) hasn't been able to smell for 5 days.

 

[Regan]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.

I will say this

The workers of NSW biggest power station have been told from Thursday they are running on skeleton staff because of lock down and to get ready that was from this morning

 

[hammertime]

I had to fly out last Friday and man, Australia is doing really badly with some of their measures. I did not see any temperature checks, eating areas remained uncleaned for long periods and I did not see any signs of regular disinfecting on high-touch areas like the lifts or bathrooms.

I dare say people might start to think about things differently once we go through it once. This one will be a learning curve.

 

[mike]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

And if it is not, will you stop posting?

 

[Regan]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.


I will say this

The workers of NSW biggest power station have been told from Thursday they are running on skeleton staff because of lock down and to get ready that was from this morning

I have inside information but I will stop posting don't ban me no more information from corona not my intention to scare people

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

 

[hammertime]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

Being in HK, we were watching the Wuhan data really closely. It took a long time for the recovery data to catch-up to the infections. It felt like at least a couple of weeks where it was 1:1 with the death rate.

Recovery doesn't have to do with if you're on the path to healthiness, it will be when you're fully recovered from the virus. Mild or not.

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

Being in HK, we were watching the Wuhan data really closely. It took a long time for the recovery data to catch-up to the infections. It felt like at least a couple of weeks where it was 1:1 with the death rate.

Recovery doesn't have to do with if you're on the path to healthiness, it will be when you're fully recovered from the virus. Mild or not.

That’s exactly what I’m suggesting, who (pardon the pun) knows of WHO and whether other cooperating organisations are all using the same testing *method* and criteria... I.e, mild people, who have now recovered without even being tested... seems to me there’s far more grave data!

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

Being in HK, we were watching the Wuhan data really closely. It took a long time for the recovery data to catch-up to the infections. It felt like at least a couple of weeks where it was 1:1 with the death rate.

Recovery doesn't have to do with if you're on the path to healthiness, it will be when you're fully recovered from the virus. Mild or not.

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

>it will be when you're fully recovered from the virus.

This is the key right here, until we find legitimately effective treatment course for this, even without an actual vaccine we’ll be fighting it in the dark and still unsure on re-infection chance.

 

[Geo]

I would find it astonishing if the Govt was deliberately lying about figures...probably not surprised

 

[Regan]

Rudy Gobert (NBA 1x All Star- plays for Utah Jazz) hasn't been able to smell for 5 days.

Last one lost of smell is the only recurrent symptom of corona virus ever one gets that symptom

 

[bacon]

Last one lost of smell is the only recurrent symptom of corona virus ever one gets that symptom

Yes i know...it;s still interesting tho....not being able to smell anything for 5 days straight!

 

[Hangonaminute]

As soon as another big news story breaks the media will move on and this whole Coronavirus thing will be forgotten about.

I give it 6 weeks max and we'll be looking back and thinking how quickly things got crazy

 

[Geo]

As soon as another big news story breaks the media will move on and this whole Coronavirus thing will be forgotten about.

I give it 6 weeks max and we'll be looking back and thinking how quickly things got crazy

I wouldn't go that far..but hey anyone remember the Bushfires..

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?



Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha


Or it could be as simple as TwentyForty pointed out that it takes about 14 days to recover and 14 days ago there were only 112 cases.

But no......conspiracy. So there are 14000 cases today? Are you going to answer that simple question?

In fairness to Regan, that’s in line with estimates of worst case scenario, which are becoming real

No its not. Regan said it would be 14000, today, 24/3/20. Worst case scenarios are way over 14000. At the *current* exponential growth, we will be 14000 on 02/04/20.

Hoping it slows significantly with these new restrictions.

 

[TheDaBoss]

As soon as another big news story breaks the media will move on and this whole Coronavirus thing will be forgotten about.

I give it 6 weeks max and we'll be looking back and thinking how quickly things got crazy

I wouldn't go that far..but hey anyone remember the Bushfires..

Yall here about the floods?

 

[bacon]

but hey anyone remember the Bushfires

The virus started during the bushfires.
The bushfires are basically over, if not, over. The virus is a current thing, therefore everyone is talking about it and it is all over the news. The bushfires are the past now and isn't as much of a deal anymore as the coronavirus.
The bushfires were also an Australian thing..this virus is now global!

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.


I will say this

The workers of NSW biggest power station have been told from Thursday they are running on skeleton staff because of lock down and to get ready that was from this morning

I will say this.....EVERY organisation is on skeleton staff because of lock down and requirements to stop the spread. Your point?

BTW, are there 14000 cases in Australia today?