Coronavirus Outbreak

[Snake]

To all that want schools closed , on the radio just now the kids are roaming around the large shopping Centers being exposed and probable exposing others ... sorry our PM. is right keep them at school and restricted . This whole situation is madness and people that are in leadership roles are way out of there depth !

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?



Or funny thing they are lying about it the government lie never ha ha ha


Or it could be as simple as TwentyForty pointed out that it takes about 14 days to recover and 14 days ago there were only 112 cases.

But no......conspiracy. So there are 14000 cases today? Are you going to answer that simple question?

In fairness to Regan, that’s in line with estimates of worst case scenario, which are becoming real


No its not. Regan said it would be 14000, today, 24/3/20. Worst case scenarios are way over 14000. At the *current* exponential growth, we will be 14000 on 02/04/20.

Hoping it slows significantly with these new restrictions.

My bad, man, didn’t see a predicted date with it, but as you say we’ll likely get there so the point remains. Hopefully mimicking China works now!

 

[Tim Sheens]

Is this a health or economic crisis? It is going to be both, there is no getting around this, so It has to be attacked in order and that is a priority on health.

Economic wise, things have changed dramatically already, with so many of those that are now working at home, to continue to do so remotely and never return to an office environment as a result of this catalyst. I expect this will mean many of the smaller businesses servicing these centralised office areas will either never reopen, or will attempt to and then fail due to lack of clientele. This would flow on to businesses around the transport hubs as well and together will only be a small part the change ahead.

Government and the opposition, with a few amendments, have passed the stimulus measures which seem to make it more workable and further extensions on a simple bipartisan basis through the finance minister and shadow, so basic assistance is ready to roll out.

We were directly lied to again yesterday and from observation I am sure the federal government is not telling us the truth on the medical advice. Albanese was visibly uneasy in addressing his earlier discussions with the health officials this morning and it is also plain to me, that even the coalition state leaders whilst taking their own further controls, are biting their lips publicly and likely strongly pushing back privately as well.

If so, it is past time for them as a collective to demand change, that if not agreed to, they must call it out and force the hand of our federal government. The lives of our family and friends may depend upon it.

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all


Still going with your wild predictions? You might get one right one day, broken closk is right twice a day etc.

How did your last prediction go? 14000 cases in Aus today? Close? No, out by 12000.

Go away


It would be very brave to dispute or substantiate any data which gives us the number of infected patients given the nature of the symptoms and knowing that only .6% of the population has been tested.

150,000 tests is not a lot compared with the overall population, but it is a big number when compared to the number of positives, the number of people in high risk situations, the number with symptoms and most importantly, the numbers presenting to hospital or dying.

To me it seems the testing is as close to acccurate as possible, and I base this purely on the consistency of the data that I plotted previously, the consistency of the new cases growth and importantly, the number of deaths & ICU presentations.

Lets put it this way, if our tests were wildly inaccurate and lets just humour our mate REgan and bunker boy and say that there really IS 14000 cases in Australia. Then at the LOWEST possible reported rates, there would be 140 dead and 7000 in ICU. There isnt, there is 7 dead and 13 in ICU which reflects the reported confirmed cases pretty well.

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.


I will say this

The workers of NSW biggest power station have been told from Thursday they are running on skeleton staff because of lock down and to get ready that was from this morning



I have inside information but I will stop posting don't ban me no more information from corona not my intention to scare people

Its not inside information if its complete made up rubbish. Answer this, is there 14000 cases in Australia TODAY?

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

And if it is not, will you stop posting?

No he will obfuscate and bend facts to his agenda. WE are effectively locked down now, which he said would happen 02/04/20. He said 14000 cases today. How many times does he need to be be wrong about completely made up rubbish before he hides in shame?

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.


I will say this

The workers of NSW biggest power station have been told from Thursday they are running on skeleton staff because of lock down and to get ready that was from this morning



I have inside information but I will stop posting don't ban me no more information from corona not my intention to scare people


Its not inside information if its complete made up rubbish. Answer this, is there 14000 cases in Australia TODAY?

Regan has disclosed their source with the mod team. I will leave it up to them to disclose it publicly.

 

[Tim Sheens]

To all that want schools closed , on the radio just now the kids are roaming around the large shopping Centers being exposed and probable exposing others ... sorry our PM. is right keep them at school and restricted . This whole situation is madness and people that are in leadership roles are way out of there depth !

I'm having trouble reading your opinion. I assume, that like me, you think pretty well all the measures are not going far enough and more importantly, need to be enforced?

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

I dont think I made my answer clear enough. My point is if it takes 14 days to recover (even mild cases), there were only 112 cases reported 14 days ago, so 118 recovered cases sounds about right for that timeframe.

 

[Snake]

To all that want schools closed , on the radio just now the kids are roaming around the large shopping Centers being exposed and probable exposing others ... sorry our PM. is right keep them at school and restricted . This whole situation is madness and people that are in leadership roles are way out of there depth !

I'm having trouble reading your opinion. I assume, that like me, you think pretty well all the measures are not going far enough and more importantly, need to be enforced?

 

[Tim Sheens]

To all that want schools closed , on the radio just now the kids are roaming around the large shopping Centers being exposed and probable exposing others ... sorry our PM. is right keep them at school and restricted . This whole situation is madness and people that are in leadership roles are way out of there depth !

I'm having trouble reading your opinion. I assume, that like me, you think pretty well all the measures are not going far enough and more importantly, need to be enforced?

?

 

[Tiger5150]

Rudy Gobert (NBA 1x All Star- plays for Utah Jazz) hasn't been able to smell for 5 days.

Last one lost of smell is the only recurrent symptom of corona virus ever one gets that symptom

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-explained-what-you-need-to-know-about-getting-sick-treatment-and-future-vaccines/news-story/946cb4feb58433a5c09336ee9c7a9ff4

Flinders University says 1 in 3, German researchers say 1 in 2.........but screw that, Im going with bunker boy in SA.......EVERYONE GETS IT!!!!!!!

By the way Regan, answer JUST one of these two questions..

1, IS there 14000 cases in Australia today?
2. Has your mate bunker boy got one thing right yet?

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages


I dont think I made my answer clear enough. My point is if it takes 14 days to recover (even mild cases), there were only 112 cases reported 14 days ago, so 118 recovered cases sounds about right for that timeframe.

Don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that being the end of infectious potential for a person, hence why my answer intimates that it’s crucial we get better data and clearer projections. I.E for this ‘exponential growth’ you continue to speak of, whether we like it or not, is an unknown.

Just want families to be protected and based on scientific estimates it actually doesn’t seem that any particular group will remain at all safe it the spread and ferocity of disease holds up...

Not a ‘say your prayers’ situation, but to try and guess and go off whatever governments have somewhat accurate results ATM is a little short-sighted and nobody can afford to go half cocked.

 

[trentrunciman]

FYI All, if anyone needs fruit veges etc. I noticed Paddy's markets will be open tomorrow. There is plenty of stuff there. They're open tomorrow

All the best all

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

Being in HK, we were watching the Wuhan data really closely. It took a long time for the recovery data to catch-up to the infections. It felt like at least a couple of weeks where it was 1:1 with the death rate.

Recovery doesn't have to do with if you're on the path to healthiness, it will be when you're fully recovered from the virus. Mild or not.

That’s exactly what I’m suggesting, who (pardon the pun) knows of WHO and whether other cooperating organisations are all using the same testing *method* and criteria... I.e, mild people, who have now recovered without even being tested... seems to me there’s far more grave data!

I dont think that is the cause of the weird status of the recovered cases. I think it is mathematical. Due to the nature of exponential growth, as it goes forward, numbers grow huge quickly, exponentially. So where the sick people are on the curve and the deaths, is at the peak, in the present, but the recoveries are in the past when it comes to the exponential curve so they will be exponentially small relative to the curve, as the cases grow.

As an example, if I look at my mathematical forcecast that Ive put together at today, we have 1800 cases, but 14 days ago we had 112 cases, so if recovery time is about 14 days, then the reported recovery cases of 118 looks about right. If I look to the future on my forecast, 14 days from now, we would have 39248 cases, but only probably 2000 recoveries because that is how many had it 14 days earlier.

This is borne out elsewhere in the world. The basketcase that everyone worries about, Italy currently has 64000 cases. 14 days ago they had 7375 cases. Today they are reporting recoveries as 7432. That is a pretty accurate parallel.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages

Being in HK, we were watching the Wuhan data really closely. It took a long time for the recovery data to catch-up to the infections. It felt like at least a couple of weeks where it was 1:1 with the death rate.

Recovery doesn't have to do with if you're on the path to healthiness, it will be when you're fully recovered from the virus. Mild or not.

That’s exactly what I’m suggesting, who (pardon the pun) knows of WHO and whether other cooperating organisations are all using the same testing *method* and criteria... I.e, mild people, who have now recovered without even being tested... seems to me there’s far more grave data!


I dont think that is the cause of the weird status of the recovered cases. I think it is mathematical. Due to the nature of exponential growth, as it goes forward, numbers grow huge quickly, exponentially. So where the sick people are on the curve and the deaths, is at the peak, in the present, but the recoveries are in the past when it comes to the exponential curve so they will be exponentially small relative to the curve, as the cases grow.

As an example, if I look at my mathematical forcecast that Ive put together at today, we have 1800 cases, but 14 days ago we had 112 cases, so if recovery time is about 14 days, then the reported recovery cases of 118 looks about right. If I look to the future on my forecast, 14 days from now, we would have 39248 cases, but only probably 2000 recoveries because that is how many had it 14 days earlier.

This is borne out elsewhere in the world. The basketcase that everyone worries about, Italy currently has 64000 cases. 14 days ago they had 7375 cases. Today they are reporting recoveries as 7432. That is a pretty accurate parallel.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/monkeys-cannot-get-reinfected-with-coronavirus-study.html

Or for example, that human error plays a role, which is much more likely than maths here.

Clearly the monkey’s remained infectious for up to 28 days and did not display many symptoms until this progressed to mild/moderate viral pneumonia... seems self explanatory.

Given that estimates have upto 95% of cases being mild and ‘quick recoveries’ it is now become obvious that that’s most probably a reflection of best case ESTIMATE, and are therefore reflected by a margin of error that is down to many factors.

Seems to be getting more serious on the daily - and this obviously renders any constantly changing mathematical gradient(?) useless. For the time being, this is quite obvious to me..?

 

[Tim Sheens]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages


I dont think I made my answer clear enough. My point is if it takes 14 days to recover (even mild cases), there were only 112 cases reported 14 days ago, so 118 recovered cases sounds about right for that timeframe.

Yeah, the recovered numbers seem a reasonable correlation reverse lag reflection of the infected numbers.

Separate to that, Greg Hunt is a reasonable person and for mine, right before my eyes as I write, he is also struggling with being muted and thus not being able to be honest. The way he attempted to speak around the advice of health officials relating to policies and changes in coming days, said to me, that lockdown is imminent.

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages


I dont think I made my answer clear enough. My point is if it takes 14 days to recover (even mild cases), there were only 112 cases reported 14 days ago, so 118 recovered cases sounds about right for that timeframe.

Don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that being the end of infectious potential for a person, hence why my answer intimates that it’s crucial we get better data and clearer projections. I.E for this ‘exponential growth’ you continue to speak of, whether we like it or not, is an unknown.

Just want families to be protected and based on scientific estimates it actually doesn’t seem that any particular group will remain at all safe it the spread and ferocity of disease holds up...

Not a ‘say your prayers’ situation, but to try and guess and go off whatever governments have somewhat accurate results ATM is a little short-sighted and nobody can afford to go half cocked.

There is plenty of evidence of the exponential growth of cases, thats a fact. I merely pointing out two things. The reported recovery time for this virus is about 14 days. The numbers reported as "recovered" pretty much line up exactly with the number of cases on that exponential curve, 14 days ago, so that makes a lot of sense.

 

[Tiger5150]

Hi guys just got confirmation it's this Thursday lock down 100 percent good luck to all

You got a hotline to the PM mate?




Very close to actually

Provide your source or you will be banned.


I will say this

The workers of NSW biggest power station have been told from Thursday they are running on skeleton staff because of lock down and to get ready that was from this morning



I have inside information but I will stop posting don't ban me no more information from corona not my intention to scare people


Its not inside information if its complete made up rubbish. Answer this, is there 14000 cases in Australia TODAY?

Regan has disclosed their source with the mod team. I will leave it up to them to disclose it publicly.

How will the mods know he isnt lying and does it matter anyway? Pretty much everything he has posted so far has been demonstrably false.

 

[JD Tiger]

As soon as another big news story breaks the media will move on and this whole Coronavirus thing will be forgotten about.

I give it 6 weeks max and we'll be looking back and thinking how quickly things got crazy

Have you seem the news, the Centrelink queues, estimates by ministers saying could be up to a million Australians out of work over this?

I think it's a bit more serious mate than your post suggests. 6 months may be closer.