Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.


Could it be that new cases are arriving faster than recoveries? If it takes 14 days to recover and only hours to discover a newly infectEd patient. Is that the correlation you’re questioning?


Ah yes you are on it of course. It actually does make sense. I was simply thinking it doesnt make sense that only 118 cases are reported as recovered out of 1800 but I wasnt taking into consideration that 14 days ago there were only 112 cases, so now that does start to make sense.

So, not many “recovering” based on the symptoms listed and an unknown period of time that people may be contagious for? Sounds like a pretty bad trend for us to be following...

Problem is the numbers are becoming quite consistent in most places - people are very sick.

The mild cases, IMO, must make up only %60 yet for some reason even they aren’t being listed as recovering cases yet. Seems to me that the initial word on this was right & consistent criteria for testing may be an issue - believe we may have been exposed for a lot longer - and shortages


I dont think I made my answer clear enough. My point is if it takes 14 days to recover (even mild cases), there were only 112 cases reported 14 days ago, so 118 recovered cases sounds about right for that timeframe.

Don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that being the end of infectious potential for a person, hence why my answer intimates that it’s crucial we get better data and clearer projections. I.E for this ‘exponential growth’ you continue to speak of, whether we like it or not, is an unknown.

Just want families to be protected and based on scientific estimates it actually doesn’t seem that any particular group will remain at all safe it the spread and ferocity of disease holds up...

Not a ‘say your prayers’ situation, but to try and guess and go off whatever governments have somewhat accurate results ATM is a little short-sighted and nobody can afford to go half cocked.


There is plenty of evidence of the exponential growth of cases, thats a fact. I merely pointing out two things. The reported recovery time for this virus is about 14 days. The numbers reported as "recovered" pretty much line up exactly with the number of cases on that exponential curve, 14 days ago, so that makes a lot of sense.

Wasn’t in any way debating the numbers mate! Merely saying that human error reflects in a lot of the ‘poorer’, inconsistent and unreliable data that we’ve seen from many countries so far.

They will all line up in a few weeks to months and that is a definitive scientific fact.

 

[JD Tiger]

I had to fly out last Friday and man, Australia is doing really badly with some of their measures. I did not see any temperature checks, eating areas remained uncleaned for long periods and I did not see any signs of regular disinfecting on high-touch areas like the lifts or bathrooms.

I dare say people might start to think about things differently once we go through it once. This one will be a learning curve.

My mother and daughter flew in from overseas last Thursday and all they had to do was sign a paper - no test.
My daughter was shocked because while they were away the got tested EVERY time they re entered their hotel.

That's terrible by us. No wonder this thing is spreading. Absolutely stupid mismanagement.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Deaths have been stable for a few days, but we just lost our first one from the cruise liner, so up to 8 now.

 

[Tiger5150]

Deaths have been stable for a few days, but we just lost our first one from the cruise liner, so up to 8 now.

Unless that cruise has been out at sea for like 6 weeks, that has to be the most stupid thing to ever choose to go on a cruise. The US have banned cruises for something like a month. Stupidity and now they are all here infecting everyone. Madness.

 

[Tigerboy]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.

Hmm...weird and if I've understood correctly, rather alarming.

If only 13 people are in hospital with CV, then can I assume the others are left to their own devices at home to recover?

A lot are claiming to feel unaffected and thus, un-infectious, but this cannot be the case.

Growth of the virus’ll soon reflect in some kind of immunity until such time as a permanent vaccine becomes available (even then...), so it would seem that figures are either confused - thus hard to decipher or completely inaccurate due certain partialities as it stands - I believe @Tiger5150 is correct and it’s currently confusing due to the recovery reserve lag of the disease as people are quarantined and forced to wait. Similar to what @formerguest touched on.

Reality is we need more data!

 

[Tiger5150]

Deaths have been stable for a few days, but we just lost our first one from the cruise liner, so up to 8 now.

Even at 8 deaths our mortality rate is WAY lower than everywhere else at 0.4%. I expect it to rise significantly in the near future as cases rise but even if everyone currently in hospital right now dies, we would still only be at 1%. I wonder of with time, treatments have improved as well as knowledge of the virus?

 

[mike]

As soon as another big news story breaks the media will move on and this whole Coronavirus thing will be forgotten about.

I give it 6 weeks max and we'll be looking back and thinking how quickly things got crazy

Have you seem the news, the Centrelink queues, estimates by ministers saying could be up to a million Australians out of work over this?

I think it's a bit more serious mate than your post suggests. 6 months may be closer.

Agreed. This will go on unless one of two things happen. 1) anti-virals are found to work and along with the measures already taken the virus is eradicated in Australia and our boarders remain closed or 2) a vaccine is developed.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

imagine if scomo had shut the borders earlier and done more testing at airports cruise ships etc the bleeding hearts would have got stuck in to him then so he couldnt win.
The mistake was letting this ship in over the weekend i think its inevitable we shut down for a period

 

[Tigerboy]

As soon as another big news story breaks the media will move on and this whole Coronavirus thing will be forgotten about.

I give it 6 weeks max and we'll be looking back and thinking how quickly things got crazy

Have you seem the news, the Centrelink queues, estimates by ministers saying could be up to a million Australians out of work over this?

I think it's a bit more serious mate than your post suggests. 6 months may be closer.

Agreed. This will go on unless one of two things happen. 1) anti-virals are found to work and along with the measures already taken the virus is eradicated in Australia and our boarders remain close or 2) a vaccine is developed.

And reports, initially are a vaccine could be AT LEAST 12 months away...

Article I’ve posted above; interesting correspondence RE re-infection and seemingly an obvious antibody response in non-human primates.

This article shows even on the forefront of medical research and where a new wave of the brunt of this virus is hitting (and could potentially mutate), their President knows absolute squat.

Please read, then consider how we are going as a country... *directed to everybody*

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

imagine if scomo had shut the borders earlier and done more testing at airports cruise ships etc the bleeding hearts would have got stuck in to him then so he couldnt win.
The mistake was letting this ship in over the weekend i think its inevitable we shut down for a period

As it was said, the political policy of the LNP since 2001 has been stop the boats and they failed to stop the one that actually mattered.

I do agree, we should have certainly stopped international travel as soon as it was obvious it was extremely communicable.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Deaths have been stable for a few days, but we just lost our first one from the cruise liner, so up to 8 now.


Unless that cruise has been out at sea for like 6 weeks, that has to be the most stupid thing to ever choose to go on a cruise. The US have banned cruises for something like a month. Stupidity and now they are all here infecting everyone. Madness.

I know that you like your figures and the latest from New York are incredibly worrying, with 1 in 4 tests coming back positive for a total of 22939 active cases. Lucky that their Governer took things into his own hands before adequate testing was available, else it would be much worse.

 

[Tim Sheens]

imagine if scomo had shut the borders earlier and done more testing at airports cruise ships etc the bleeding hearts would have got stuck in to him then so he couldnt win.
The mistake was letting this ship in over the weekend i think its inevitable we shut down for a period

As it was said, the political policy of the LNP since 2001 has been stop the boats and they failed to stop the one that actually mattered.

I do agree, we should have certainly stopped international travel as soon as it was obvious it was extremely communicable.


 

[Nelson]

Deaths have been stable for a few days, but we just lost our first one from the cruise liner, so up to 8 now.


Even at 8 deaths our mortality rate is WAY lower than everywhere else at 0.4%. I expect it to rise significantly in the near future as cases rise but even if everyone currently in hospital right now dies, we would still only be at 1%. I wonder of with time, treatments have improved as well as knowledge of the virus?

Well the rate seems to be much higher in, for example, Italy for at least 2 reasons: their health care system has been overloaded (whereas ours has not); and it has ravaged aged populations in Italy. If it found its way into a few nursing homes in Australia or if we were to reach a critical mass of serious cases in Australia the mortality rate would likely take a sharp upturn.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Deaths have been stable for a few days, but we just lost our first one from the cruise liner, so up to 8 now.


Even at 8 deaths our mortality rate is WAY lower than everywhere else at 0.4%. I expect it to rise significantly in the near future as cases rise but even if everyone currently in hospital right now dies, we would still only be at 1%. I wonder of with time, treatments have improved as well as knowledge of the virus?

I/We don't know, but from what information we have been given, the death rate thus far is extremely low compared to most.

Knowledge must be playing some part, along with health care, including earlier mitigation measures in aged care facilities and probably partially because of internal changes as a result of the open Royal Commission. Population density or other societal differences and even could be temperature related amongst other reasons.

 

[weststigers]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data.

What are your thoughts on the recovery rate against the multiplier?

It seems to take a long time to recover which looks like it will eventually create a backlog? I.e. even if we get to under 1, we'll still be in a bit of trouble in the short/medium term.



The recovery numbers have me stumped tbh. It doesnt make sense. All reports have been that for the 80%+ of cases that dont require hospitalisation (95%+ in Aus), its a mild illness that you are over in less than 2 weeks. There are only 13 people in hospital in Australia with COVID but our reported recoveries are only 118 out of 1800. Doesnt make sense and seems to be the same thing worldwide in reporting.

I dont get it.

Hmm...weird and if I've understood correctly, rather alarming.

If only 13 people are in hospital with CV, then can I assume the others are left to their own devices at home to recover?

A lot are claiming to feel unaffected and thus, un-infectious, but this cannot be the case.

Growth of the virus’ll soon reflect in some kind of immunity until such time as a permanent vaccine becomes available (even then...), so it would seem that figures are either confused - thus hard to decipher or completely inaccurate due certain partialities as it stands - I believe @Tiger5150 is correct and it’s currently confusing due to the recovery reserve lag of the disease as people are quarantined and forced to wait. Similar to what @formerguest touched on.

Reality is we need more data!

Agree with what you say, however purely on a safety note, we have people out there that we *hope* will do the right thing and self-quarantine.

It's worse than not taking temperatures at the airport.

 

[Tim Sheens]

i hope all this blows over in 2-3 months.


Gonna be a lot longer than that.

Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon today said

""America will again, and soon, be open for business. Very soon. A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting, a lot sooner. We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem."

don't know if i agree


He’s just desperate for the economy not to tank cos if it does, his greatest boast of the last 3 years is in the toilet.

It gets worse and hopefully news that a couple of Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon's believers have listened to his advice on the anti malarial drug vaccine being great crap, will stop him bullshitting people. The result being one is dead and the other is in ICU fighting for life.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Interesting comments in the SMH about the discounts that were on offer for cruises following the debacle in Japan. Both the cruise lines and those who took advantage of cheap deals have some reflecting to do. Also those who had cruises booked and refused to cancel and lose their money
It is a high price to pay to put yourself at risk on an incubator.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Interesting comments in the SMH about the discounts that were on offer for cruises following the debacle in Japan. Both the cruise lines and those who took advantage of cheap deals have some reflecting to do. Also those who had cruises booked and refused to cancel and lose their money
It is a high price to pay to put yourself at risk on an incubator.

We had one that was going to happen this weekend. We waited out to see what would happen (we were not going to go,) and we've managed to get a 125% credit on our fare for when we decide to rebook, or a 100% refund.

At this point there's no time limit so when this all finally subsides that is what we will do.

 

[Cairnstigers]

5 cases now in little Cairns
I also saw a news alert on two reliable news sources that were quickly pulled relating to another person which I won't go into
If it was fake news it is a low act
If it was real then I think we are in a little trouble up here
The next few days will tell

 

[Cairnstigers]

Interesting comments in the SMH about the discounts that were on offer for cruises following the debacle in Japan. Both the cruise lines and those who took advantage of cheap deals have some reflecting to do. Also those who had cruises booked and refused to cancel and lose their money
It is a high price to pay to put yourself at risk on an incubator.

They stopped the planes from flying
They need to stop the ships from sailing