Coronavirus Outbreak

[mike]

In NSW over 5,000 tests yesterday as of 8pm with just 10 new cases detected. This is heading in the right direction. Unfortunately two more people passed away overnight.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The legal action that is underway in the US over the death of another passenger from Ruby Princess on an earlier cruise is interesting. This is especially so since our PM gave this ship exemption to dock despite his 30 day ban. The liar from the shire is quick to attack a healthcare worker in NW Tasmania. Was his decision related to looking after business mates?


Is there any actual source that the ***PM*** gave the ship exemption?

He/Govt. provided exemptions to four ships. The fact they docked despite the ban is proof. The link from the Hobart Mercury provides details.

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/coronavirus/editorial-do-the-right-thing-dob-in-a-dodger/news-story/b2bd0db28350c38711f7150433bb5737

Remember, Dutton stops boats, not ships.

MAY. THE. FARCE NOT. BE WITH YOU


THanks for the verification. IMO I can see the logic in letting the 4 that were on their way in to dock, but I wouldnt have let them disembark the way were. IMO forced quarantine or stay on the ship.

I think the Feds learned a hard lesson with this one and from memory after this they brought in the forced hotel quarantine? That would have been the right way to go, or stay on the boat in quarantine.

I havent really been paying attention but a lot of the debate here seems to have been who was at fault Feds or NSW Health, IMO clearly both.

The hotel quarantine was brought in by the NSW Govt. after Ruby Princess. I know the NSW Premier was furious and left none of her colleagues in doubt that Border Force was at fault. Worrying to me is that the narrative seems to have switched to Carnival.

Ii is very important that the inquiry explores and reports every detail of the fiasco which is bordering on criminal behaviour.Fault should be directed at all the irresponsible parties with no cover ups but the cynic in me would suggest that a few low level people will be sacriced to protect the guilty.

Dutton on 15 March announced Border Force was in charge of all cruise ships. As soon as it hit the fan, stopping the boats became a State issue. Dutton is desperate for a distraction like China as he failed to stop the plague ship.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Sweden has had approximately 13,000 cases, 1400 deaths but only 550 recovered. More people dying than recovering? Why?

Is it Denmark or Sweden which still allows citizens to socialise?

Also, I am extremely concerned about the UK. It's figures do not include the elderly who have died in aged care. Since it was reported 2000 facilities have reported deaths, the UK problem and figures are greatly misleading. Boris has correctly been called out on acting too slowly to close borders.


I think it was only the tunnel? Macron kept it open too.

Scary stuff in London .....Mum was talking to one of her aunts living in Norwich .....elderly people are being found dead in their houses .....Boris has a lot to answer for ..they really mucked it up ....as bad as the Americans have


Yes, I don’t know why the hell they didn’t close the border early. If WHO had acted more quickly who knows what the landscape would look like?

I think there is enough evidence out there that the developed nations, such as ours have had plenty of information for a long time, making and continuing to make decisions based on economics and health. England, from many reports were going down the herd path until reality smacked them in the face.

Many countries governments acted at varying levels by mid January, for example, in the US, the CDC issued it's first warning on January 8th, then Italy shut down flights from China on the last day of that month. Australia and the US also made similar announcements on 31 January, but unlike Italy, they were not immediate nor total, with ours coming into effect on 2 February and the US one a couple more days later, being a restriction, but including a range of exemptions other than returning citizens.

The WHO, amongst other failings, were without doubt late in calling it an international pandemic and no doubt that will have an effect as the narrative is important, but they have long been issuing warnings and reports, whilst also preparing resources in their vital coordinating role for the developing world.

 

[Tiger5150]

The legal action that is underway in the US over the death of another passenger from Ruby Princess on an earlier cruise is interesting. This is especially so since our PM gave this ship exemption to dock despite his 30 day ban. The liar from the shire is quick to attack a healthcare worker in NW Tasmania. Was his decision related to looking after business mates?


Is there any actual source that the ***PM*** gave the ship exemption?

He/Govt. provided exemptions to four ships. The fact they docked despite the ban is proof. The link from the Hobart Mercury provides details.

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/coronavirus/editorial-do-the-right-thing-dob-in-a-dodger/news-story/b2bd0db28350c38711f7150433bb5737

Remember, Dutton stops boats, not ships.

MAY. THE. FARCE NOT. BE WITH YOU


THanks for the verification. IMO I can see the logic in letting the 4 that were on their way in to dock, but I wouldnt have let them disembark the way were. IMO forced quarantine or stay on the ship.

I think the Feds learned a hard lesson with this one and from memory after this they brought in the forced hotel quarantine? That would have been the right way to go, or stay on the boat in quarantine.

I havent really been paying attention but a lot of the debate here seems to have been who was at fault Feds or NSW Health, IMO clearly both.

The hotel quarantine was brought in by the NSW Govt. after Ruby Princess. I know the NSW Premier was furious and left none of her colleagues in doubt that Border Force was at fault. Worrying to me is that the narrative seems to have switched to Carnival.

Ii is very important that the inquiry explores and reports every detail of the fiasco which is bordering on criminal behaviour.Fault should be directed at all the irresponsible parties with no cover ups but the cynic in me would suggest that a few low level people will be sacriced to protect the guilty.

Dutton on 15 March announced Border Force was in charge of all cruise ships. As soon as it hit the fan, stopping the boats became a State issue. Dutton is desperate for a distraction like China as he failed to stop the plague ship.

more than 1 thing can be true at once.

Of course its not NSW Healths role to STOP the ships, but once they are here it is their role what happens to the passengers (after they disembark).

Glad there is an inquiry. Pretty sure it will show everyone screwed the pooch on this one.

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.




Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).




Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.




Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.




I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.




Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.




Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.




Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.





Todays update. Remember I said it was getting predictable again, with expected number to be 6112 - 6119, it turned out to be 6104, so not bad. This equates to a slight drop again in the exponential multiplier down from 1.017 to 1.015, so pretty steady. First time under 100 new cases since 17 March

Expect it to be around 6195 today.




Yesterday was predictably predictable. Total cases reached 6292. I guess it could be seen as slow steady progress downward with the multiplier dropping slightly again from 1.016 to 1.014 but its very slow and very steady. Seems to me the law of diminishing returns has kicked in and its hard to get better than this.

Expect cases to get to 6380 today but it would be encouraging to see a more significant dip. Actually it will be interesting to see if say on Tues or Wed if we see a rise because of Easter.



Let me know if you are getting sick of these updates


Not sure of what to make of todays update. Yesterday there were only 21 new cases. This drops the exponential multiplier down from 1.014 to 1.003 which is effectively all over (remember 1.0 is no new cases and we are done). Now I am pretty sure that this is more a case of not a lot of testing on Easter Sunday rather than the end of the epidemic, so it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

My biggest concern is that the public sees these figures and just gets back to normal life but I hope they dont. They have to understand the time lag in infection, symptoms, infectious state. I would love to see these hard restrictions last 4 more weeks to eradicate it.




At the risk of provoking @Hangonaminute and the new world order, but for the sake of continuity, here is the update on the figures.

Not sure how much can be taken from these numbers (restraint Hangon)...but only 46 new cases reported yesterday. Again, most likely a hangover from Easter weekend and we will see over the next few days if its an ongoing trend. FWIW the exponential multiplier bumped up slightly from incredibly low 0.003 to an also low 0.007.

What I find interesting and encouraging is NSW Department of Health are opening up test centres now where you can get tested on demand, anyone can get tested. This may spike numbers up but the result will be more reliable data and hopefully the start of an exit strategy. If they open testing up to all comers and the data doesnt change much, then they will know that they are on the right track and a possible way out.




Tentatively.....I post todays update. Yesterday was another steady day with only 56 new cases. The exponential multiplier ticked up slightly from 1.007 to 1.008 which is nothing really and still very low. These low numbers could be from reduced testing over the Easter break, but the NSW Health are testing all comers now and therefore we should be able to have some more faith in the data over the next week or so.

Would love to see it gradually decline further.




well there certainly seems to be some consistency and stability in the numbers. Another low result yesterday with only 32 new cases. THe exponential multiplier dropped slightly from 1.008 to 1.005.

These low numbers are encouraging with all states now testing all comers and in the case of NSW begging people to get tested but they cant get enough people to turn up. They were testing at 4500 a dayand now only get 1500 to show up.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-where-to-get-tested-in-each-state-and-territory/news-story/fc16230d284983c4526470d84ff4125f

My guess is that its asymptomatic cases walking around responsible for these final numbers, maybe Hangonaminute on the beach, but surely its possible to get these numbers down from 30 to zero and then hold restrictions for a month, then back into it (with closed borders).




I briefly break our political bleating for something equally pointless, todays update. Pointless because it is incredibly steady and predictable. Exponential multiplier stayed steady for a second day at 1.008 with 53 cases (56 the day before).

I really hope we can squash that number down from 53 to zero. Otherwhise I can see a tricky decision coming up in 4 weeks for the GOvt to have to open things back up with it still wild out there.



I think I screwed yesterdays update up and as a result Im not 100% sure of yesterdays data. I think I i actually gave the data for the day before in yesterdays update (doubled up). My data is correct over the last two days but my data is showing 44 new cases for yesterday and only 11 for the day before, its possible that some of yesterdays cases should have been in the day before.

Regardless, as an average across the two days its only about 27 cases a day with an average exponential multiplier of 1.003 which is getting pretty low and with a downward trend. Hopefully we can squeeze them down to zero.



 

[Tiger5150]

The legal action that is underway in the US over the death of another passenger from Ruby Princess on an earlier cruise is interesting. This is especially so since our PM gave this ship exemption to dock despite his 30 day ban. The liar from the shire is quick to attack a healthcare worker in NW Tasmania. Was his decision related to looking after business mates?


Is there any actual source that the ***PM*** gave the ship exemption?

He/Govt. provided exemptions to four ships. The fact they docked despite the ban is proof. The link from the Hobart Mercury provides details.

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/coronavirus/editorial-do-the-right-thing-dob-in-a-dodger/news-story/b2bd0db28350c38711f7150433bb5737

Remember, Dutton stops boats, not ships.

MAY. THE. FARCE NOT. BE WITH YOU


THanks for the verification. IMO I can see the logic in letting the 4 that were on their way in to dock, but I wouldnt have let them disembark the way were. IMO forced quarantine or stay on the ship.

I think the Feds learned a hard lesson with this one and from memory after this they brought in the forced hotel quarantine? That would have been the right way to go, or stay on the boat in quarantine.

I havent really been paying attention but a lot of the debate here seems to have been who was at fault Feds or NSW Health, IMO clearly both.

The hotel quarantine was brought in by the NSW Govt. after Ruby Princess. I know the NSW Premier was furious and left none of her colleagues in doubt that Border Force was at fault. Worrying to me is that the narrative seems to have switched to Carnival.

I think there is enough blame to go around and Carnival I think is entitled to some. REportedly they docked at 2am. IMO trying to sneak in.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Sweden has had approximately 13,000 cases, 1400 deaths but only 550 recovered. More people dying than recovering? Why?

Is it Denmark or Sweden which still allows citizens to socialise?

Also, I am extremely concerned about the UK. It's figures do not include the elderly who have died in aged care. Since it was reported 2000 facilities have reported deaths, the UK problem and figures are greatly misleading. Boris has correctly been called out on acting too slowly to close borders.


I think it was only the tunnel? Macron kept it open too. It was WHO who was slow to take action based on their knowledge from visits to Wuhan and their misguided confidence in China’s success in containing the spread. 27th Feb, Scott Morrison told us we were dealing with a pandemic. 11th March, WHO declared a pandemic.

Didn't want to add the following to my previous post, but found the following answer both interesting and alarming in relation to the UK border response on 12 March.

.
.
.

Asked why the United Kingdom hadn’t imposed a ban on flights from China last month, the country’s chief scientific officer Patrick Vallance said today: “We looked at it. Even if we stopped all flights and had a 95% reduction, the effect on the delay of the epidemic was only a day or two. And realistically we could get at best a 50% reduction. This has been born out, with the way the world works you cannot stop that unless everyone decides to do this at once.”

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

One looming statistic at the Penrith home unfortunately.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

One looming statistic at the Penrith home unfortunately.

Yes poor resident died. I hope there aren't more. Residents must be petrified. I feel for them.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The legal action that is underway in the US over the death of another passenger from Ruby Princess on an earlier cruise is interesting. This is especially so since our PM gave this ship exemption to dock despite his 30 day ban. The liar from the shire is quick to attack a healthcare worker in NW Tasmania. Was his decision related to looking after business mates?


Is there any actual source that the ***PM*** gave the ship exemption?

He/Govt. provided exemptions to four ships. The fact they docked despite the ban is proof. The link from the Hobart Mercury provides details.

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/coronavirus/editorial-do-the-right-thing-dob-in-a-dodger/news-story/b2bd0db28350c38711f7150433bb5737

Remember, Dutton stops boats, not ships.

MAY. THE. FARCE NOT. BE WITH YOU


THanks for the verification. IMO I can see the logic in letting the 4 that were on their way in to dock, but I wouldnt have let them disembark the way were. IMO forced quarantine or stay on the ship.

I think the Feds learned a hard lesson with this one and from memory after this they brought in the forced hotel quarantine? That would have been the right way to go, or stay on the boat in quarantine.

I havent really been paying attention but a lot of the debate here seems to have been who was at fault Feds or NSW Health, IMO clearly both.

The hotel quarantine was brought in by the NSW Govt. after Ruby Princess. I know the NSW Premier was furious and left none of her colleagues in doubt that Border Force was at fault. Worrying to me is that the narrative seems to have switched to Carnival.


I think there is enough blame to go around and Carnival I think is entitled to some. REportedly they docked at 2am. IMO trying to sneak in.

NSW Health has demonstrated the utmost professionalism during this pandemic. What happened regarding Ruby Princess is so far removed that clearly there is another explanation. Hazard. again this morning said he and the Premier looked forward to the release of Bret Walker's. findings.

 

[JD Tiger]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.




Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).




Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.




Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.




I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.




Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.




Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.




Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.





Todays update. Remember I said it was getting predictable again, with expected number to be 6112 - 6119, it turned out to be 6104, so not bad. This equates to a slight drop again in the exponential multiplier down from 1.017 to 1.015, so pretty steady. First time under 100 new cases since 17 March

Expect it to be around 6195 today.




Yesterday was predictably predictable. Total cases reached 6292. I guess it could be seen as slow steady progress downward with the multiplier dropping slightly again from 1.016 to 1.014 but its very slow and very steady. Seems to me the law of diminishing returns has kicked in and its hard to get better than this.

Expect cases to get to 6380 today but it would be encouraging to see a more significant dip. Actually it will be interesting to see if say on Tues or Wed if we see a rise because of Easter.



Let me know if you are getting sick of these updates


Not sure of what to make of todays update. Yesterday there were only 21 new cases. This drops the exponential multiplier down from 1.014 to 1.003 which is effectively all over (remember 1.0 is no new cases and we are done). Now I am pretty sure that this is more a case of not a lot of testing on Easter Sunday rather than the end of the epidemic, so it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

My biggest concern is that the public sees these figures and just gets back to normal life but I hope they dont. They have to understand the time lag in infection, symptoms, infectious state. I would love to see these hard restrictions last 4 more weeks to eradicate it.




At the risk of provoking @Hangonaminute and the new world order, but for the sake of continuity, here is the update on the figures.

Not sure how much can be taken from these numbers (restraint Hangon)...but only 46 new cases reported yesterday. Again, most likely a hangover from Easter weekend and we will see over the next few days if its an ongoing trend. FWIW the exponential multiplier bumped up slightly from incredibly low 0.003 to an also low 0.007.

What I find interesting and encouraging is NSW Department of Health are opening up test centres now where you can get tested on demand, anyone can get tested. This may spike numbers up but the result will be more reliable data and hopefully the start of an exit strategy. If they open testing up to all comers and the data doesnt change much, then they will know that they are on the right track and a possible way out.




Tentatively.....I post todays update. Yesterday was another steady day with only 56 new cases. The exponential multiplier ticked up slightly from 1.007 to 1.008 which is nothing really and still very low. These low numbers could be from reduced testing over the Easter break, but the NSW Health are testing all comers now and therefore we should be able to have some more faith in the data over the next week or so.

Would love to see it gradually decline further.




well there certainly seems to be some consistency and stability in the numbers. Another low result yesterday with only 32 new cases. THe exponential multiplier dropped slightly from 1.008 to 1.005.

These low numbers are encouraging with all states now testing all comers and in the case of NSW begging people to get tested but they cant get enough people to turn up. They were testing at 4500 a dayand now only get 1500 to show up.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-where-to-get-tested-in-each-state-and-territory/news-story/fc16230d284983c4526470d84ff4125f

My guess is that its asymptomatic cases walking around responsible for these final numbers, maybe Hangonaminute on the beach, but surely its possible to get these numbers down from 30 to zero and then hold restrictions for a month, then back into it (with closed borders).




I briefly break our political bleating for something equally pointless, todays update. Pointless because it is incredibly steady and predictable. Exponential multiplier stayed steady for a second day at 1.008 with 53 cases (56 the day before).

I really hope we can squash that number down from 53 to zero. Otherwhise I can see a tricky decision coming up in 4 weeks for the GOvt to have to open things back up with it still wild out there.




I think I screwed yesterdays update up and as a result Im not 100% sure of yesterdays data. I think I i actually gave the data for the day before in yesterdays update (doubled up). My data is correct over the last two days but my data is showing 44 new cases for yesterday and only 11 for the day before, its possible that some of yesterdays cases should have been in the day before.

Regardless, as an average across the two days its only about 27 cases a day with an average exponential multiplier of 1.003 which is getting pretty low and with a downward trend. Hopefully we can squeeze them down to zero.



All good mate. It's the ability to see the trend over time that makes me keep coming back to see it.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

I/We live on the other side of the world but could clearly see what was unfolding with this Virus and it's devastating effects on Humanity, but Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon, was clearly downplaying the Virus.
You have to ask yourself why
What was in it for him


I recently posted this in the politics thread, and to be honest that is where it belongs and Geo will probably move it, but it is relevant to this comment in this thread...

You do realise that lockdown and social restrictions are a state requirement dont you? NY lockdown was enacted by the Democratic Governor Cuomo, not Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon. Same for each state, to various degrees, with varying results.

Jan 29 Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon created the Coronavirus taskforce including Dr Fauci, previous Clinton staffer.

Jan31 Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon Bans flights from China

Mid February, NY Mayor Bill De Blasio tells New Yorks to get down to Chinatown and fill the restaurants.

https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/079-20/mayor-de-blasio-speaker-johnson-queens-chamber-commerce-encourage-new-yorkers-visit#/0

Feb 25 Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi encourages everyone to get down and mingle in Chinatown in San Francisco stating "Its very safe!"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/chinatown-san-francisco-coronavirus-fears-empty-district

But Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon was playing it down?

I'm not talking about individual states or individual decisions by Governor's
I am talking about what the President of the United States was preaching to his people
That is all the people in the United states

Jan. 22

Asked by CNBC whether there were any concerns about the virus spreading to the U.S., Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon responded: "We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine."



"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine."

President Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon, Jan. 22
------

January 20 - 26

On January 20, China reported a third death and more than 200 infections, with cases also reported outside Hubei province including in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Meanwhile, a Chinese expert on infectious diseases confirmed human-to-human transmission to state broadcaster CCTV, raising fears of a major outbreak as millions travelled for the Lunar New Year holiday.

The cities of Wuhan, Xiantao and Chibi in Hubei province were placed under effective quarantine on January 23 as air and rail departures were suspended. By the end of the week, more areas were placed under lockdown affecting a total of 56 million people.


So on the 22th of January Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon makes the above statement, yet on the 20th it was confirmed human-to-human transmission had occurred

Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon was playing it down yes
He has now changed his tune

I am not saying it's his fault that the Virus made it to the US
I am saying he is the President
Millions of people listen to him and follow him
I don't think his comment ( We have it totally under control ) was the best choice of words
It clearly isn't

They are his words
And this is my opinion
But I wasn't there and I am reading this off the net


Your entitled to your opinion and on a forum, we are entitled to discuss it.

On Jan 19, the first case was detected in the US. On Jan 22 when Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon said there was one person with the virus, from China. In the whole of the US, there was one person with the virus, from China.

Just seven days later Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon forms a national Coronavirus taskforce headed by an impartial former democrat staffer and bans flights from China. In just 7 days. I hardly think that is underplaying it.

Alex Azar who headed up the taskforce (and is Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon's very own secretary of health) has gone public saying Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon had his head in the sand and ignored the task force's advice.

He's one of a long list apolitical types that are saying exactly the same thing.

It doesn't get much more damning than that.

The fact that Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon was running around a few weeks back saying the country would be open for Easter should be enough for anyone to question the bloke's mental state.

Now that his supporter base are starting to fall ill, he's looking more and more like a rat that's backed into a corner.

He announced today he is going to introduce legislation to allow states to open back up, he is about to push for restrictions to be removed!


Actually more accurately, he enabled each State Governor to make their own decisions about opening back up or not opening back up. He is specifically making it NOT his decision.

But also said that they can't stay lockdown, that the economy needs to be reopened, that the supply chains need to restart! If they don't reopen they will enter a depression the us will never recover from.


All of which is true. The US is a massive place. It makes sense to enable the State Governors to make the decisions when you have WEst Virginia with 700 cases and NY with 220,000 cases.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge of the US! I'm just worried the US is going to have outbreak like in NY across different stats for the next 6 months or so!


I have no superior knowledge of the US. To me it just makes sense that you would treat a state with 700 cases differently to a state with 200,000. Also if you are looking to keep the economy alive by opening some places up, states like West Virginia are obviously going to be safer to open up than NY and at least it keeps the economic heart beating faintly.

That would only make sense if people are not allowed to travel between states.


Years ago I wrote the first Enterprise Bargaining Agreement for my industry in Australia. It was very successful. We didnt have to but we asked the AWU to be part of it. Everyone was happy, us management, staff & union. Two years later we had to -re-ratify it. employees and management both wanted to roll over the existing agreement as it was. The Union (I kid you not) FORCED us to write and sign an agreement that cut all staffs wages by 20% (no changes to other conditions). This was so that they could get the second largest company in Australia to sign the same agreement and all would be equal and the union forced 100 new members.

Really opened my eyes to the real goals of the union.

Yea right - the unions aren't going to be the problem when businesses get back in to action. And as for your bargaining agreements they will all be out the window.


Mate it was a long time ago,things are different. Actually to give my perspectively more clearly on the Unions, ***in this context*** let me bore you with a short story.

I HATE UNIONS. I have valid reason to, not simply ideological. I have already given you my story of how they intentionally cost my employees (and their members) money but when I was a young guy I was an apprentice and was on Darling Harbour Construction site in 1987. The BLF still existed (Pre CFMEU). Because my job involved operating a particular machine, I actually had to be in two different unions (for two parts of my job) to set foot on site BUT if anyone found out I was in two unions I would be beaten up and kicked off site. Every morning I had to go to two different union meetings where they would actually discuss who's work they would shut down. If you didnt drop a case of beer in their site office first thing, your company was likely to be one that got shut down. Shut downs happened every day. I personally witnessed multiple beatings by union officials.

In my story about the negotiations about the EBA, the AWU negotiators were two brothers called the Brown brothers, skinhead Scots straight out of prison. Used to bash people.

Ok that story which Im sure isnt of interest to most but I need to tell it to explain my position with Unions in this context. I HATE UNIONS, I have more than ideological reasons to hate them, good reasons (I know times have changed) but last week when my sons company refuses to register for the Jobkeeper allowance and my son and his colleagues are out of pocket for no logical reason.......I gave him the AWU phone number and website.

I hate Unions but they do have their place and role and in these crazy circumstances Im sure that will remain.

The union movement is caring for the welfare of the crew on the plague ship at Port Kembla. The crew includes many from third world countries and a large number want off the ship. The Illawarra Mercury records the union rep stating Border Force is out of lockstep with other parties involved in negotiations. Why. Am I not surprised.

 

[cochise]

@tiger5150 Can you still say Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon is not pushing too hard for the US to open up and dealing with this situation well after calling for Michigan to be liberated?

 

[Tiger5150]

I/We live on the other side of the world but could clearly see what was unfolding with this Virus and it's devastating effects on Humanity, but Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon, was clearly downplaying the Virus.
You have to ask yourself why
What was in it for him


I recently posted this in the politics thread, and to be honest that is where it belongs and Geo will probably move it, but it is relevant to this comment in this thread...

You do realise that lockdown and social restrictions are a state requirement dont you? NY lockdown was enacted by the Democratic Governor Cuomo, not Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon. Same for each state, to various degrees, with varying results.

Jan 29 Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon created the Coronavirus taskforce including Dr Fauci, previous Clinton staffer.

Jan31 Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon Bans flights from China

Mid February, NY Mayor Bill De Blasio tells New Yorks to get down to Chinatown and fill the restaurants.

https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/079-20/mayor-de-blasio-speaker-johnson-queens-chamber-commerce-encourage-new-yorkers-visit#/0

Feb 25 Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi encourages everyone to get down and mingle in Chinatown in San Francisco stating "Its very safe!"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/chinatown-san-francisco-coronavirus-fears-empty-district

But Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon was playing it down?

I'm not talking about individual states or individual decisions by Governor's
I am talking about what the President of the United States was preaching to his people
That is all the people in the United states

Jan. 22

Asked by CNBC whether there were any concerns about the virus spreading to the U.S., Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon responded: "We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine."



"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine."

President Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon, Jan. 22
------

January 20 - 26

On January 20, China reported a third death and more than 200 infections, with cases also reported outside Hubei province including in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Meanwhile, a Chinese expert on infectious diseases confirmed human-to-human transmission to state broadcaster CCTV, raising fears of a major outbreak as millions travelled for the Lunar New Year holiday.

The cities of Wuhan, Xiantao and Chibi in Hubei province were placed under effective quarantine on January 23 as air and rail departures were suspended. By the end of the week, more areas were placed under lockdown affecting a total of 56 million people.


So on the 22th of January Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon makes the above statement, yet on the 20th it was confirmed human-to-human transmission had occurred

Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon was playing it down yes
He has now changed his tune

I am not saying it's his fault that the Virus made it to the US
I am saying he is the President
Millions of people listen to him and follow him
I don't think his comment ( We have it totally under control ) was the best choice of words
It clearly isn't

They are his words
And this is my opinion
But I wasn't there and I am reading this off the net


Your entitled to your opinion and on a forum, we are entitled to discuss it.

On Jan 19, the first case was detected in the US. On Jan 22 when Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon said there was one person with the virus, from China. In the whole of the US, there was one person with the virus, from China.

Just seven days later Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon forms a national Coronavirus taskforce headed by an impartial former democrat staffer and bans flights from China. In just 7 days. I hardly think that is underplaying it.

Alex Azar who headed up the taskforce (and is Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon's very own secretary of health) has gone public saying Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon had his head in the sand and ignored the task force's advice.

He's one of a long list apolitical types that are saying exactly the same thing.

It doesn't get much more damning than that.

The fact that Trump, who is a convicted Rapist and Felon was running around a few weeks back saying the country would be open for Easter should be enough for anyone to question the bloke's mental state.

Now that his supporter base are starting to fall ill, he's looking more and more like a rat that's backed into a corner.

He announced today he is going to introduce legislation to allow states to open back up, he is about to push for restrictions to be removed!


Actually more accurately, he enabled each State Governor to make their own decisions about opening back up or not opening back up. He is specifically making it NOT his decision.

But also said that they can't stay lockdown, that the economy needs to be reopened, that the supply chains need to restart! If they don't reopen they will enter a depression the us will never recover from.


All of which is true. The US is a massive place. It makes sense to enable the State Governors to make the decisions when you have WEst Virginia with 700 cases and NY with 220,000 cases.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge of the US! I'm just worried the US is going to have outbreak like in NY across different stats for the next 6 months or so!


I have no superior knowledge of the US. To me it just makes sense that you would treat a state with 700 cases differently to a state with 200,000. Also if you are looking to keep the economy alive by opening some places up, states like West Virginia are obviously going to be safer to open up than NY and at least it keeps the economic heart beating faintly.

That would only make sense if people are not allowed to travel between states.


Years ago I wrote the first Enterprise Bargaining Agreement for my industry in Australia. It was very successful. We didnt have to but we asked the AWU to be part of it. Everyone was happy, us management, staff & union. Two years later we had to -re-ratify it. employees and management both wanted to roll over the existing agreement as it was. The Union (I kid you not) FORCED us to write and sign an agreement that cut all staffs wages by 20% (no changes to other conditions). This was so that they could get the second largest company in Australia to sign the same agreement and all would be equal and the union forced 100 new members.

Really opened my eyes to the real goals of the union.

Yea right - the unions aren't going to be the problem when businesses get back in to action. And as for your bargaining agreements they will all be out the window.


Mate it was a long time ago,things are different. Actually to give my perspectively more clearly on the Unions, ***in this context*** let me bore you with a short story.

I HATE UNIONS. I have valid reason to, not simply ideological. I have already given you my story of how they intentionally cost my employees (and their members) money but when I was a young guy I was an apprentice and was on Darling Harbour Construction site in 1987. The BLF still existed (Pre CFMEU). Because my job involved operating a particular machine, I actually had to be in two different unions (for two parts of my job) to set foot on site BUT if anyone found out I was in two unions I would be beaten up and kicked off site. Every morning I had to go to two different union meetings where they would actually discuss who's work they would shut down. If you didnt drop a case of beer in their site office first thing, your company was likely to be one that got shut down. Shut downs happened every day. I personally witnessed multiple beatings by union officials.

In my story about the negotiations about the EBA, the AWU negotiators were two brothers called the Brown brothers, skinhead Scots straight out of prison. Used to bash people.

Ok that story which Im sure isnt of interest to most but I need to tell it to explain my position with Unions in this context. I HATE UNIONS, I have more than ideological reasons to hate them, good reasons (I know times have changed) but last week when my sons company refuses to register for the Jobkeeper allowance and my son and his colleagues are out of pocket for no logical reason.......I gave him the AWU phone number and website.

I hate Unions but they do have their place and role and in these crazy circumstances Im sure that will remain.

The union movement is caring for the welfare of the crew on the plague ship at Port Kembla. The crew includes many from third world countries and a large number want off the ship. The Illawarra Mercury records the union rep stating Border Force is out of lockstep with other parties involved in negotiations. Why. Am I not surprised.

Thats a great thing and pretty much what they are supposed to do, look after members. As I said, they do have their role and Im sure that they do do good things for members. In my long experience (but not for a few years now) the disgraceful behaviour outweighs the good. I hope it has changed a lot in recent years. They do a great deal for safety on construction sites.

I have LOTS more I could say and share about unions but seriously it has almost no relevance in this thread, That talk belongs in the political thread and Im not welcome in the echo chamber.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

In Victoria I believe there are around 11 patients in ICU and 9. on ventilators. Apparently 9. are from the Antartic cruise ship Greg Mortimore. The operators of this ship have some responsibility for this situation.

 

[Cairnstigers]

The legal action that is underway in the US over the death of another passenger from Ruby Princess on an earlier cruise is interesting. This is especially so since our PM gave this ship exemption to dock despite his 30 day ban. The liar from the shire is quick to attack a healthcare worker in NW Tasmania. Was his decision related to looking after business mates?


Is there any actual source that the ***PM*** gave the ship exemption?

He/Govt. provided exemptions to four ships. The fact they docked despite the ban is proof. The link from the Hobart Mercury provides details.

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/coronavirus/editorial-do-the-right-thing-dob-in-a-dodger/news-story/b2bd0db28350c38711f7150433bb5737

Remember, Dutton stops boats, not ships.

MAY. THE. FARCE NOT. BE WITH YOU


THanks for the verification. IMO I can see the logic in letting the 4 that were on their way in to dock, but I wouldnt have let them disembark the way were. IMO forced quarantine or stay on the ship.

I think the Feds learned a hard lesson with this one and from memory after this they brought in the forced hotel quarantine? That would have been the right way to go, or stay on the boat in quarantine.

I havent really been paying attention but a lot of the debate here seems to have been who was at fault Feds or NSW Health, IMO clearly both.

The hotel quarantine was brought in by the NSW Govt. after Ruby Princess. I know the NSW Premier was furious and left none of her colleagues in doubt that Border Force was at fault. Worrying to me is that the narrative seems to have switched to Carnival.


I think there is enough blame to go around and Carnival I think is entitled to some. REportedly they docked at 2am. IMO trying to sneak in.

How do you sneak this into the Harbour
With the lights off

You mean the Australian government or boarder force let them in at 2am so no one could protest ?

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Penrith nursing home likely to get worse again.

 

[cochise]

Penrith nursing home likely to get worse again.

I expect 10-15 deaths in there at least!

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Penrith nursing home likely to get worse again.

I expect 10-15 deaths in there at least!

That's probably a low end estimate.

 

[cochise]

Penrith nursing home likely to get worse again.

I expect 10-15 deaths in there at least!

That's probably a low end estimate.

Definitely, I said 30 to my wife earlier! It is a large site and if it also gets into the retirement Village associated with it then all bets are off and it could end up being anything