Coronavirus Outbreak

[diedpretty]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.

we also have the luxury of being an island and isolated from the major danger areas.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.

we also have the luxury of being an island and isolated from the major danger areas.

Spot on. A lot of the success the country has had has been due to luck of location. Same with NZ.

 

[diedpretty]

We were told that if we did nothing as a country we would have 150,000 deaths, being 2 and half times the population of sweden we should therefore expect them to have 60,000 deaths within the next few months. Will be interesting to see if our modelling experts were on the money.

 

[diedpretty]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

 

[cochise]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

 

[diedpretty]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Wasn't quoting you. It was poster before you - unfortunately it doesn't seem to quote any further back than 1 poster.

 

[cochise]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Wasn't quoting you. It was poster before you - unfortunately it doesn't seem to quote any further back than 1 poster.

Why didn't you just quote him?

 

[Tiger5150]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.

I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

 

[cochise]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.

 

[Tiger5150]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.

I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

 

[cochise]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.


I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

No matter what happens, out initial response has saved lives as the time we have bought has allowed our health system to be more prepared to deal with this and even if we get to a point where we are overwhelmed it will be at a much later point then would have been 2 months ago.

 

[mike]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.


I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

No matter what happens, out initial response has saved lives as the time we have bought has allowed our health system to be more prepared to deal with this and even if we get to a point where we are overwhelmed it will be at a much later point then would have been 2 months ago.

The smartest thing the Govt did was declare it as a Pandemic in Feb (around the 27th I beleive) well before the WHO. That allowed Australia to initate the Health Emergency Response Plan well before the virus took a strong foothold here. There were a few blunders and miss-steps after that, but calling it early has been our saviour so far.

 

[diedpretty]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Wasn't quoting you. It was poster before you - unfortunately it doesn't seem to quote any further back than 1 poster.

Why didn't you just quote him?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Wasn't quoting you. It was poster before you - unfortunately it doesn't seem to quote any further back than 1 poster.

Why didn't you just quote him?

I thought i was - previously if you quote what was in the window all posts in that window would show up - now it only shows the last post. Guess i will just stop quoting people.

 

[diedpretty]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.


I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

No matter what happens, out initial response has saved lives as the time we have bought has allowed our health system to be more prepared to deal with this and even if we get to a point where we are overwhelmed it will be at a much later point then would have been 2 months ago.

Yep 149,900 of them.

 

[cochise]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.


I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

No matter what happens, out initial response has saved lives as the time we have bought has allowed our health system to be more prepared to deal with this and even if we get to a point where we are overwhelmed it will be at a much later point then would have been 2 months ago.

Yep 149,900 of them.

Not necessarily, if our numbers now go through the roof and 20000 people die, that is still better than the 150000 first predicted.

 

[cochise]

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Wasn't quoting you. It was poster before you - unfortunately it doesn't seem to quote any further back than 1 poster.

Why didn't you just quote him?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Covid19 facts

Children are more likely to die from the flu than covid19.
CDC data Dr Scott Atlas Stanford.

If you are under the age of 24, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to die covid19.
Avic Roy data

More than half of covid19 deaths in 20 states of the USA were in nursing homes.
81% in Minnesota
75% in Rhode island
72% in New Hampshire
60% in Oregon, Washington state, North Carolina, Nabraska, Massachusetts, Delaware and other states.

When Colarado revised their death toll to differentiate between those who died 'with' covid to those who died 'from' covid, their death toll dropped 25%.
According to the governor of Colorado.

Lockdowns are more deadly, people commit suicide at higher rates thanks to unemployment according to the bureau of economic research and statistics.

The economic devestation from lockdowns causes poverty worldwide which could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of children, according to the United nations.

In places like Sweden, Georgia or Florida where lockdowns were lifted or there were never any to begin with, there has been no massive outbreak of covid19

The highest risk of covid19 transmission is at home among family members according to studies from Hong Kong, Germany and Taiwan
The risk of transmitting the virus outdoors is 18 times less.

The prediction models were wrong, have been proven wrong, but politicians who based their covid19 lockdown policies on those models have refused to revise them even when shown that the models are wrong.

Just been reported that Sweden now has the highest per capital death rate of any Nation. Sweden are paying for their lack of action.


Except its not true, quite a few countries ahead of Swedens still including UK, France Spain. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Go back and re-read that report. It was the highest per capita death rate, for that week.


They are still paying for thier lack of action. How many thousand dead?

3925. Im not making an argument that they are doing a good or a bad job, just simply pointing out that it is not true that Sweden has the highest death rate per capita in the world. That report was misleading and actually reported that it had the highest per capita death rate for that one week.

Well they did for that week.


THAT is true. "Sweden now has the highest death rate per capita in the world", is not true.

Sweden is interesting and no one can say yet whether they have done the right or the wrong thing. If the virus continues throughout the US & Europe and continues in wave after wave with continual lockdown, then Sweden will be in front because they will reach herd immunity without destroying their economy and without overloading their health system (unnecessary deaths through lack of care). However if in the US & Europe they manage to crush the virus down with no second or subsequent waves, then Sweden pulled the wrong rein.

Sweeden population 10,099,265. 3,925 dead. Australia population 25,499,884. 101 dead. Pretty obvisous to me that they got it wrong.


You cant compare any country to Australia except maybe NZ, for "our land is girt by sea".

Australia is at an almost unique situation geographically, where as Europe has completely different constraints and parameters. Compare Sweden to Italy, Spain, France etc. These countries have similar conditions to Sweden and Sweden has done better than these countries on a per capita death rate basis. Also compare to Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden is doing worse than these countries per capita death rate, but this is almost irelevant because no one really knows how this thing ends.

Does it just fizzle out in the medium term in US & Europe and they successfully get back to normal life in the medium term? If so Sweden made the wrong choice.

Does the virus persist, with ongoing waves of infections in Europe? If so Sweden will be a mile ahead.

Sure you can, I just did.


You also concluded this conversation.

And what would have happened if we didn’t introduce the measures we did in the timeframe we did and we went for herd immunity like Sweden and initially England did. I would not be surprise to see the deaths at over 10,000 by now, not 101. It’s a fair comparison, Sweden got it wrong.

That really does depend on what happens to our numbers in the next little bit now that we have eased the restrictions.

Hang on 10,000. We were told 150,000 if we did nothing. So now you are changing the numbers.

Where did I say 10000?

Wasn't quoting you. It was poster before you - unfortunately it doesn't seem to quote any further back than 1 poster.

Why didn't you just quote him?

I thought i was - previously if you quote what was in the window all posts in that window would show up - now it only shows the last post. Guess i will just stop quoting people.

All good mate, just thought you were trying to say I claimed that.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Interesting the little information about concerning the damage to lung function from Covid. No doubt physiotherapists will be in high demand to assist with what could be life long impacts.

 

[cochise]

Interesting the little information about concerning the damage to lung function from Covid. No doubt physiotherapists will be in high demand to assist with what could be life long impacts.

I don't know how much is known about that yet.

 

[diedpretty]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.


I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

No matter what happens, out initial response has saved lives as the time we have bought has allowed our health system to be more prepared to deal with this and even if we get to a point where we are overwhelmed it will be at a much later point then would have been 2 months ago.

Yep 149,900 of them.

Not necessarily, if our numbers now go through the roof and 20000 people die, that is still better than the 150000 first predicted.

i know - just having a bit of tongue in cheek fun. There is no doubt the restrictions we had plus the bonus of being a geographically isolated country has really kept the deaths to a very low figure. I would be horrified if we had 20000 deaths. If things get out of hand when the restrictions are fully removed then we will no doubt go back in to lockdown. How prepared people are to do that is the question.

 

[cochise]

The discussion you guys have been having around the Swedish response has been very interesting.

The Swedish health authorities argue that none of us will know whether or not their response was correct for at least another two years. The logic being that the disease will sweep through in recurring waves and the Swedes will be largely immune to those subsequent waves by virtue of having built up herd immunity (and protected their economy as a by-product) whilst countries that haven't built up immunity will be continually impacted.

It strikes me that the Swedish response is fundamentally pessimistic in that it assumes that the disease will continually run rampant without any effective response by mankind.

Our response appears to be far more optimistic. Suppress the disease as much as possible now in the hope that:
(a) A vaccine will be created or,
(b) Medications will be created to relieve the severe symptoms and immune responses that result in a high death rate

The Swedes may still be right but it seems to me that they have opted for the worst case scenario. Nor do I think that it will protect their economy when all of the major economies around them are tanking.

I definitely prefer the Australian and New Zealand responses to the pandemic.

The responses in the UK, the USA and some other European and South American countries appear to have simply been incompetent rather than a considered alternative.


I agree with pretty much you have posted and it summarises a lot of what I was arguing with Mike about last night. It will be at least a couple of years before we know if Sweden got it right or wrong. If I had to bet I'd say probably wrong, but it is simply not clear cut.

Along the same lines, there is a horror scenario that I havent seen discussed but is certainly possible. Australians are understandably patting ourselves on the back on how well we have controlled this outbreak. What if we never get a vaccine or effective treatment for the virus but once you get it you remain immune? This will mean that the virus will rip through the population of the rest of the world effectively until they reach herd immunity. This is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu.

If this ends up being the scenario, we are in big trouble because the world will have reached herd immunity and will be able to open up totally, including international travel, meanwhile Aus & NZ will be sitting here totally exposed with minimal immunity and effectively isolated from the rest of the world. We would have a very difficult decision to make whether to stay isolated or effectively adopt the Swedish strategy 2 or 3 years later with much pain.

I dont think this scenario is the most likely, but it is certainly possible.

There are still so many variables at the moment, the best research at the time was to lockdown and buy yourself time, we have bought ourselves time and are opening up. To me this indicates we are just going to deal with outbreaks as they occur because we have used this time to prepare to combat this. I do not see us reversing and heading back into lockdowns as I believe our leaders think they are ready for the second wave.


I agree, and dont misunderstand my post, I am very grateful that the Aus Govt & Aussie people did what they did, but noone knows how this will turn out and the fact that the rest of the worlds experience with it is so very different to ours is not necessarily a good thing for us in the long run.

No matter what happens, out initial response has saved lives as the time we have bought has allowed our health system to be more prepared to deal with this and even if we get to a point where we are overwhelmed it will be at a much later point then would have been 2 months ago.

Yep 149,900 of them.

Not necessarily, if our numbers now go through the roof and 20000 people die, that is still better than the 150000 first predicted.

i know - just having a bit of tongue in cheek fun. There is no doubt the restrictions we had plus the bonus of being a geographically isolated country has really kept the deaths to a very low figure. I would be horrified if we had 20000 deaths. If things get out of hand when the restrictions are fully removed then we will no doubt go back in to lockdown. How prepared people are to do that is the question.

I would be horrified too.