@TillLindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1284473) said:
South Africa is saying there's a mutated version of covid doing the rounds there that seems to affect young healthy adults more.
And in the UK there's a more contagious strain exploding.
The variant in the UK is centered around the London area and is apparently more contagious but is not believed to be more lethal
I dont think (I dont know though) that they know if it is more or less lethal. They do know that this new strain has jumped from 28% of new cases to 68% of cases very quickly.
Which strangely enough could be fantastic news for the UK. If its true that this new strain is so much more contagious (28-68% quickly suggests it is) AND it was less lethal, it could actually spell the end of the virus because the new strain would outcompete the old and it would be possible that the new strain could eradicate the old. It would effectively be a natural vaccine.
A bit of a hypothetical follow on from this. The "COVID19" virus has a case fatality rate, somewhere around 1% which isnt high but isnt something that can be ignored either.
In response to the this new "more contagious" but AT THIS STAGE suggested lower case fatality rate mutation of the virus, Europe has closed its border to UK, including even Scotland.
Just a hypothetical thought experiment, if the case fatality rate is significantly less with this much more contagious strain, I can put together a hypothesis that the best thing we could do is fling the worlds border open to the UK. Free flights OUT of GB!
Perhaps for a country where the virus was running rampant, that may work. I hope Australia never gets close to that though.
IF (MASSIVE IF but this is just a hypothetical thought experiment) it is shown that this strain has a significantly less case fatality rate, they should just have free flights from the UK to Europe & the US.
Totally understand your POV with Australia and I am VERY grateful that we have managed it as well as we have, but we need to understand that we are an incredibly isolated island and the worlds solution is our solution. We can not afford to isolate from the rest of the world much longer.
There is zero evidence to suggest the new mutation is either more or less lethal than its predecessor its just more contagious(BBC website).More research is required to find out
As I have said throughout, although the british have said that at this stage it appears to have a lower case fatality rate. If it does, Im just saying a transition in thinking could have MASSIVE consequences for the world but it would take some incredible leadership and undercarriage.
You would need a lot of data to make that kind of call. There would be so many variables that you would need to eliminate. You would also have to do extensive modelling - a moderately lower case fatality rate with many more cases results in many more deaths worldwide. Now that there are viable vaccines it seems highly unlikely that this idea would seriously be entertained and that's not through lack of courage - this approach would be foolhardy based ***on what is known***.
I dont disagree with you, but what long range longitudinal studies have been done on the safety of the vaccine?
Personally I'd prefer to be sick for a week than the vaccine.
edit: NOT an anti vaxer, all my kids and my dog are fully vaccinated.
What about the person who can't have the vaccine that you infect while sick for a week?
