happy_tiger
Well-known member
After being 1 and 5 it is on the improve , but the real test will start from the Warriors game onwards
How is our season looking?
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
Gary_Bakerloo
New member
It is a bit busy and a tad hard to read.
Perhaps just include years we made the finals and our worst ever finish. With some luck we track season 2010.
The probability path for our inaugural season is most interesting.
Perhaps just include years we made the finals and our worst ever finish. With some luck we track season 2010.
The probability path for our inaugural season is most interesting.
As much as the percentages are interesting, I think that stat on 2005 is the most telling. 33% to make the finals (which I assume is to finish 8th) and we finished 4th.
In my opinion, we are performing to trend. We always start slowly and around this time to about round 14-16 we win alot of games ugly, and that's what's been happening. I honestly think we are at about par performance wise, I thought losing 5 was damaging but we've bucked that trend so I'm happy.
In my opinion, we are performing to trend. We always start slowly and around this time to about round 14-16 we win alot of games ugly, and that's what's been happening. I honestly think we are at about par performance wise, I thought losing 5 was damaging but we've bucked that trend so I'm happy.
FootyJimmy
New member
I am still concerned. We may be tracking like last year but we are not going to win 8 in a row to finish the year.
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Tigerdave
Well-known member
2010 and 2011 at the same stages, we only had 4 wins as well. We had lost both games after the first bye, both against the Bunnies.
Hopefully we can reverse that against the Warriors.
Hopefully we can reverse that against the Warriors.
Juro
Well-known member
I've been called worse things…
Here is the graph for just the years we have made the top 8, a lot less cluttered...
Interesting how similar the seasons were placed in 1 round's time, with the gap between best and worst of only a few percent. With us having the bye next week, we will again be thereabouts.
Here is the graph for just the years we have made the top 8, a lot less cluttered...
Interesting how similar the seasons were placed in 1 round's time, with the gap between best and worst of only a few percent. With us having the bye next week, we will again be thereabouts.
@Juro said:
Anyway you can forecast how the season may look based on our previous results against other teams? Clearly the modeling would be difficult based on injuries, home ground advantages, etc. But might be fun to put out results and see if the numbers lie.
Yes, I've just finished watching that Brad Pitt movie on the baseball stats.
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Juro
Well-known member
And here is the graph for those years making the top 4.
In 2011 we were down to less than 1% chance of making the top 4 after 18 rounds, but then we won our last 8 games of the regular season. In 2005 we were 3% chance after 15 rounds but then had another great run, winning 8 in a row before dropping the last 2\. In 2010 we only dropped as low as 14% after 10 rounds, then won 11 of our last 15 games. Will we need another great run this year?
In 2011 we were down to less than 1% chance of making the top 4 after 18 rounds, but then we won our last 8 games of the regular season. In 2005 we were 3% chance after 15 rounds but then had another great run, winning 8 in a row before dropping the last 2\. In 2010 we only dropped as low as 14% after 10 rounds, then won 11 of our last 15 games. Will we need another great run this year?
milford_magic
New member
We might be sitting exactly where we were in 2010, 2011 and even 2005….
But we just look awe full. In those years you could still see the potential. We just look really bad and unless we are in their attacking 20, I am constantly asking myself how the hell are we going to score a try? If a team plays smart and doesn't give us penalties to piggyback us down field we have nothing. (One big factor for us starting so bad was we lost every penalty count first 5 rounds).
If you don't get what i mean just watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK5xUmCXq3g . This is us in 2010\. Forget our comeback, just look at how we actually LOOK with the ball. Forget results, we look nothing like this side anymore.
But we just look awe full. In those years you could still see the potential. We just look really bad and unless we are in their attacking 20, I am constantly asking myself how the hell are we going to score a try? If a team plays smart and doesn't give us penalties to piggyback us down field we have nothing. (One big factor for us starting so bad was we lost every penalty count first 5 rounds).
If you don't get what i mean just watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK5xUmCXq3g . This is us in 2010\. Forget our comeback, just look at how we actually LOOK with the ball. Forget results, we look nothing like this side anymore.
supercoach
Well-known member
this only streak this team will have is a loosing streak. I know I must sound very negative but we have no no7,we are about to see our form player head off on SOO duty,we have one winger who would be lucky to get a run in reserve grade, we have a fullback that is a fifty fifty chance to spill the ball or drop it in a tackle and we have a coach who has every player playing a different role every second set and of course a bench that is under used.
We don't look anything like the side of the past few years more like one of those sides in 2006 2007 2008 when Fitzy was our go to man while Benji was having shoulder jobs
The team has done really well to win the last three games when you consider how poor they have been playing,that will not happen against most sides
We don't look anything like the side of the past few years more like one of those sides in 2006 2007 2008 when Fitzy was our go to man while Benji was having shoulder jobs
The team has done really well to win the last three games when you consider how poor they have been playing,that will not happen against most sides
Juro
Well-known member
@ryanda01 said:
I'm reluctant to use past win percentages against other teams because I think it would be:
1\. quite difficult for my model to cope with
2\. too depressing as a Wests fan
Considering that we only have a 46% win percentage over the life of our club, and only a better than 50% record against 5 clubs, and that includes the Northern Eagles, taking past performances into account would always see us miss the pointy end of the season…
@milford_magic said:
yeah I agree, we don't look sharp. Even compared to other teams in the league, they look well drilled in their set plays (Storm, Bulldogs etc) and we just look sloppy, balls going to ground, passes behind players and so on
hopefully we'll get it together for the right end of the season!
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andrew 474
New member
looking like we may just be starting to get a roll on , it has to start somewhere , and yes we still need big improvements to stop the top teams , but lets take a big deep breath and wait and see , you cant say we wont make the 8 or run last , its to early im hoping for top 6 finnish , that will do me , stay positive
Juro
Well-known member
I think sometimes it is easy to forget the dark times we have had in our successful years. Look at 2011 - we lost 3 games in a row from rounds 15-18, where we scored a total of 16 points over those 3 games. That was just before our run of wins for the rest of the season. Then in 2010, it was only after we were embarrassed 50-10 by Souths that our season clicked into gear.
@milford_magic said:
that was actually a great game. I love that pass from Moltzen to Ayshford. and Gazza's try!
We're going to miss Gibbsy in more ways than one. Who'll stand up and try to put one on the chin of the next Manly thug who tries that stuff?
oh that's right, Adam Blair :laughing:
professional sea eagle basher
Juro
Well-known member
I've been on holidays for a couple weeks, so it's been a while between updates. Things are looking much healthier thanks to the winning streak. We have got back into the positive with 6 wins to 5 losses, and this is reflected in our probability of making the top 8 jumping to 58%. After 12 rounds, we have been in a better position in 1 of 3 years we went on to make the finals (69% in 2010). On the flip side, we were in a better position in 3 of 9 years we didn't make it to the finals (74% in 2000, 66% in 2004, 64% in 2007).
We are still a:
- 2% chance of the minor premiership (our highest chance since round 4 - Melbourne are up to 70% now)
- 23% chance of making the top 4 (our highest chance since round 2)
- 0.6% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are up to 65% now)
We are still a:
- 2% chance of the minor premiership (our highest chance since round 4 - Melbourne are up to 70% now)
- 23% chance of making the top 4 (our highest chance since round 2)
- 0.6% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are up to 65% now)
Juro
Well-known member
Now we are in the positive in regards to wins vs losses and also points scored vs conceded, which really helps our situation! Now we are up to a 75% chance of making the top 8.
After 13 rounds, we have been in a better position in 1 of 3 years we went on to make the finals (78% in 2010). On the flip side, we were in a better position in 2 of 9 years we didn't make it to the finals (84% in 2000, 76% in 2007).
We are still a:
- 3% chance of the minor premiership (our highest chance since round 4 - Melbourne are up to 78% now)
- 35% chance of making the top 4 (our highest chance for the year)
- 0.1% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 53%)
After 13 rounds, we have been in a better position in 1 of 3 years we went on to make the finals (78% in 2010). On the flip side, we were in a better position in 2 of 9 years we didn't make it to the finals (84% in 2000, 76% in 2007).
We are still a:
- 3% chance of the minor premiership (our highest chance since round 4 - Melbourne are up to 78% now)
- 35% chance of making the top 4 (our highest chance for the year)
- 0.1% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 53%)
