How is our season looking?

[Juro]

How are we positioned this year? After 3 games, 1 win, 2 losses, what are the chances we will make the finals this year? This was a question I have been playing around with, so I built myself a little model to forecast the rest of the season.


Currently, we have about a 40% chance of making the top 8\. This compares with the last 3 seasons where we were about 57% at the same stage. A win on Monday night will push us back up to about 50%, of course…

The graph shows nicely the positions we have been in each season, and the effect of a winning run on being able to get to the finals. We came from nowhere in 2009 to be about a 70% chance of making the finals but then crashed in the final few weeks. 2010 and 2011 we got it right and never slipped back too far.

What will 2012 bring? I'll try to keep updating my model as the season unfolds.

* The model is pretty simple at the moment. Each game, teams have a 50% chance of winning. Scores are random with only a small chance of blowout scores. I'm going to try to model all of our seasons back to 2000\. 2005 and 2000 should be interesting to see.

 

[tigerlogic]

How ridiculous!
No offence mate but it's r3 and u r talking about the chances of finals footy..
Please!
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[tigertye]

You have way to much time on your hands
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[Juro]

Mate, it is plotting our development as the season goes on. The 40% doesn't mean much right now. It is effectively the same as looking at the ladder and seeing we are 15th. Being 15th after 3 rounds doesn't mean we will miss the finals. We just have some ground to make up on the other teams.

 

[russelldp]

Sounds like that recent baseball movie with Brad Pitt- he selected his team using a computer program. (based on true story apparently)
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[weststigers4life]

Movie is called money ball
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[tigermaniac]

At this stage premiers.
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[Tiger_Watto]

I think we all banked on winning the Cronulla game for obvious reasons, and anyone who was being honest would of known Manly & St George were 50/50 chances. Yes we dropped those 2 50/50 options, so I'm not concerned we only have 1 win from 3.

It will hurt more if we drop this weeks fixture as we should account for Canberra and be 2 from 4… Our Season starts vs the Warriors after the Bye, and we MUST win a few back to back games during this period.

 

[Andy666]

The tigers are only a threat when they build to a finals series. Previous post is correct, beating the dragons away is tough at full strength, let alone them coming off the back of a flogging. Manly won the comp last year.

Hopefully we are full strength by rd 10\. Atleast benji looks the goods, very calm and collected. Watch the mid season revival :wink:
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[Juro]


And the slide continues, down to 32%. This is compared to 47%-66% at the same time in the last 3 years. We were never that far behind in either 2010 or 2011, and it took us 11 rounds to be that low in 2009.

 

[mtd]

to summarise it, we are in trouble…
stuff needs to change and fast... otherwise we will be 3/12 and no chance of finals footy...

 

[stryker]

Where is your chart Juro?

At this point in time I think we are in trouble. Yes it is only round 4 but so far I have seen 3 different sides take us apart 3 different ways. Attitudes and confidences are shot.

This week requires a huge effort from the boys. We have 2 inform sides over the next fortnight with our 'pain in the arse team' following (Parra). On evidence supplied so far we will be 1-5 going into the Parra game.

We really must win this weekend.

 

[Flippedy]

Bleak

 

[Gazman]

Maybe nowhere after the bunnies towell us up, let's hoping its Sheens that pulls the rabbit out of a hat though. Any idea what has been our worse start to a season

 

[Juro]

**Where is your chart Juro?**

At this point in time I think we are in trouble. Yes it is only round 4 but so far I have seen 3 different sides take us apart 3 different ways. Attitudes and confidences are shot.

This week requires a huge effort from the boys. We have 2 inform sides over the next fortnight with our 'pain in the arse team' following (Parra). On evidence supplied so far we will be 1-5 going into the Parra game.

We really must win this weekend.

Are you saying you can't see the chart? I can, so I hope everyone else can…

 

[bigdamo]

well according to some on here nothing to worry about well bounce back make top four and be preimers hhhaaaaaa one eyed and stupid.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

well according to some on here nothing to worry about well bounce back make top four and be preimers hhhaaaaaa one eyed and stupid.

Can't wait for the boys to string a couple of wins together so that you will disappear back down your hole.

 

[Juro]

well according to some on here nothing to worry about well bounce back make top four and be preimers hhhaaaaaa one eyed and stupid.

Top 4 is still very much a possibility. Way too early in the season to be making those sorts of comments. But then if you weren't making those sorts of comments, you wouldn't be making any comments at all…

Just out of interest, my model reckons we are 11.4% chance of making the top 4\. We are 11.3% chance of getting the spoon...

 

[system]

Our season thus far is like a bad date with a woman you have courted for a while.

It has not lived up to expectation, you feel a little let down and start to question your judgement.

But you really like her so decide to have another go.

You never know you might get lucky at the end of it all

 

[system]

Our season thus far is like a bad date with a woman you have courted for a while.

It has not lived up to expectation, you feel a little let down and start to question your judgement.

But you really like her so decide to have another go.

You never know you might get lucky at the end of it all