Racing tips, talk etc

Jedi_Tiger said:
well partly due to the fact I do stake betting so I bet to win a certain amount per race. Basically I do a staking plan it tends to limit the losses if you have a bad run.
The rules are just what I used after years of doing form analysis (did it for some of the network presenters and then agencies)
I also frame my own market so I can work out value, I am pretty strict with it so if I assess a horse at 7/2 and I only get $3 I don't bet.
mainly use all the rules to limit the bets

in the dogs I had a system of box 1 and 8 in every race just put a fixed amount on example $50 on both dogs and do it over a meeting or a couple of meetings it goes well.
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What about taking the top weight with the most allowances?
 
Jedi_Tiger said:
well partly due to the fact I do stake betting so I bet to win a certain amount per race. Basically I do a staking plan it tends to limit the losses if you have a bad run.
The rules are just what I used after years of doing form analysis (did it for some of the network presenters and then agencies)
I also frame my own market so I can work out value, I am pretty strict with it so if I assess a horse at 7/2 and I only get $3 I don't bet.
mainly use all the rules to limit the bets

in the dogs I had a system of box 1 and 8 in every race just put a fixed amount on example $50 on both dogs and do it over a meeting or a couple of meetings it goes well.
Click to expand...
Sounds good.

So you run it like a business with capital control.

Dogs 1 & 8 often are odds on. Set system? Or are you discretionary?

What type of % return do you aim for per meet or month?
 
Magpie_Magic said:
What about taking the top weight with the most allowances?
Click to expand...
well in a class 6 in Qld (other states don't have them they have benchmarking ) the top weight in a class 6 has generally won 6 races (no more than 6 to qualify for a class 6) so you are getting the best most credentialed horse in the race and then have a 3kg apprentice take weight off.
Example top weight 60kg less 3kg apprentice so carrying 57kg
From the stats over the last 12 years of form analysis this formula.does very well. If the topweight has a 2kg claimer or no claiming jockey then no bet.
Class 6 races in Qld are usually Saturday metropolitan meetings so we are not talking many races where it all lines up. If you get a situation where you have equal top weights with 3kg claim then you.bet on both of them
 
Magpie_Magic said:
Sounds good.

So you run it like a business with capital control.

Dogs 1 & 8 often are odds on. Set system? Or are you discretionary?

What type of % return do you aim for per meet or month?
Click to expand...
I used to try and aim to win $1500 a race I now aim to win $1000 a race.
I used to do progressive staking plans but that gets a bit hectic when you have to go up in bets,
example being you lose the first 2 races you are down say $3000 and race 3 the horse is 3/1 then you have to put $1000 on etc.
I just stick to a normal staking plan these days.
 
Oldman said:
Hi Guys
Track bias is cutting into my study time, I’m watching the first 2 races every Saturday before deciding on the form for the day (leaders or swooped)
Leader bias is becoming to common at the moment IMO.
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Yes, there was a lot of comment on social media about the track in Melbourne.
They actually interviewed the Caulfield track manager on the racing channel and he, not surprisingly , felt it wasn’t too bad.
What can you say, if you weren’t in the first 4-5 you really had no chance.
 
Mr Hemsworth looks set to run Doomben Wednesday race 3 over 1350m drawn barrier 4.
Trainer was saying it is a maiden handicap for colts and geldings and he has been given 60kg by handicapper.
Plan is to jump on speed be in first 3 or 4 settling and see how we go. He said he is hoping for plenty of natural improvement from last run and is expecting a good showing.
Given we are second up I would say ea hway again (1 x win 4 x place) mainly as a rule I am generally wary of second up runs. Again field is typical Qld form, second up last prep he ran third at Kembla grange which is stronger form than this.
Orman was disappointed we chose this race a she had committed to one of Tony Gollans hence the jockey change
 
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Jedi_Tiger said:
Mr Hemsworth looks set to run Doomben Wednesday race 3 over 1350m drawn barrier 4.
Trainer was saying it is a maiden handicap for colts and geldings and he has been given 60kg by handicapper.
Plan is to jump on speed be in first 3 or 4 settling and see how we go. He said he is hoping for plenty of natural improvement from last run and is expecting a good showing.
Given we are second up I would say ea hway again (1 x win 4 x place) mainly as a rule I am generally wary of second up runs. Again field is typical Qld form, second up last prep he ran third at Kembla grange which is stronger form than this.
Click to expand...
Sorry mate- it's going to have the extra weight of my dollars on his back...

Good luck!
 
Jedi_Tiger said:
Mr Hemsworth looks set to run Doomben Wednesday race 3 over 1350m drawn barrier 4.
Trainer was saying it is a maiden handicap for colts and geldings and he has been given 60kg by handicapper.
Plan is to jump on speed be in first 3 or 4 settling and see how we go. He said he is hoping for plenty of natural improvement from last run and is expecting a good showing.
Given we are second up I would say ea hway again (1 x win 4 x place) mainly as a rule I am generally wary of second up runs. Again field is typical Qld form, second up last prep he ran third at Kembla grange which is stronger form than this.
Orman was disappointed we chose this race a she had committed to one of Tony Gollans hence the jockey change
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Good luck tomorrow JT. Hope my bet doesn’t slow it down ! ( 5 x 20, again).
Nothing wrong with Thompson but Orman the best up there imo.
 
Aceshigh said:
Been backed in from 10 to 5-50 i better get on , i also got tipped Sandown race 4 no 9 , might be an all up 👍
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He is bred to handle the wet his mom handled it pretty well, heavy 9 could work out ok but as long as we jump on the speed we should be able to run 1350m easy as it would run more like a mile
Plenty of scratchings I like our chances at the price
 
Jedi_Tiger said:
thanks agree mate Orman is the best up there
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I think you or I could have ridden him a bit better than BT. Miss the start, move inside/outside and run out of puff.
A barrier trial, for all intents, but maybe track conditions didn’t suit either and a month between runs.
Interesting to see where he goes next and whether Orman jumps back on.
Just one of those days. Bad luck.
 
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