Racing tips, talk etc

A good market that is set at present is this by election for the federal seat of Farrer due 30 march
independent $2
Nationals $3.25
one nation $3.75
Liberal $6

Based on that market and where preferences might flow, Nationals at $3.25 represent some value.
Libs would preference them
Independent has said will not preference one nation
Also taking a punt on one nation polling not necessarily reflecting on voting day aka xenephon factor in s.a.

Some value for Nationals at $3.25 before election is called, expect it to tighten up
reviewing the Farrer bye election now that it has been called for May 9
Independent $1.45
One Nation $3

upon review dont think liberals or nationals can win.

I believe the bookies have this market completely wrong.

what are the chances the liberals and nationals actually preference the "Independent" climate 200 Tiffany teal over One Nation.
Push comes to shove libs and nats will announce they will preference Ine Nation at that point the value drops out of the market and One Nation would come tumbling in to $1.90

$3 is good value for One Nation
 
reviewing the Farrer bye election now that it has been called for May 9
Independent $1.45
One Nation $3

upon review dont think liberals or nationals can win.

I believe the bookies have this market completely wrong.

what are the chances the liberals and nationals actually preference the "Independent" climate 200 Tiffany teal over One Nation.
Push comes to shove libs and nats will announce they will preference Ine Nation at that point the value drops out of the market and One Nation would come tumbling in to $1.90

$3 is good value for One Nation
One Natuon in to $2.30 now for Farrer by election
if one nation vote holds up in south Australia this weekend then expect price to drop to $1.90 each of two between one nation and independent
 
if i was brave i would take it for a place into tigers to beat souths 4.60 x 2.30 = $10.58
Anything’s possible but No thanks. Don’t confuse bravery with passion. Take your black white and orange glasses off and redo the math.
We’ve had one win.

However the Mrs and I will be watching the slipper. It’s a bit of a thing for us. We knew each other for years, she was a mates sis. In our first day out I took her to a fancy restaurant for lunch and on the way home we were driving past rosehill and I said “have you ever been to the races?” She said no and to her amazement I pulled into the carpark and we had a day out. Then a few weeks later she wins tickets off the radio for special seating at the Slipper and had another day out. So it’s a bit of a thing.
 
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