I am so confused about nrls rapid expansion plan. with such a shallow talent pool, The product quality is going to be so poor that it will attract very few new followers. Obviously that just my opinion
Unfortunately the expansion has nothing to do with the short-term talent pool. It will be a strain for several years.
Expansion is currently about (a) getting a Perth game every second week for TV viewing time slots, (b) using the national security situation to guarantee government investment in a PNG side.
Long-term there is a very clear talent pool pathway because the reality is the East Coast League states are fairly saturated for development and much of the population growth is not from a Rugby League (and Union) background, so for example whilst the W Sydney population may continue to rise, it's a very long-term bet to want to have Indian and Chinese heritage kids playing Rugby League.
WA genuinely has the best and longest-term juniors program of an AFL-majority state. The Western Force are still hanging on by a thread, but any work done by Union in WA is a secondary talent pool for League.
PNG is an obvious talent pool that needed a business case. It will 100% lose money for a long time, but if you can get an effective fat pathway set up, building on what they've already done with the QLD Cup, the players are there. It's like NZ in that way, NZ only has 5 million people but they all live and breathe Union, play it on the weekend etc. The finances transform the player base into elite competition.
PNG has estimated population of 11M and potentially more because they struggle to count all the remote tribes properly. But they play League heavily at a grassroots level, you just need the money and governance to transform that huge and dedicated player base into elite talent. Best part is PNG has very little competition from other codes like soccer or even Union.
So WA was always a business case with the long-term potential to grow their niche junior nursery, but the nursery is there and it's a highly untapped population.
PNG has an enormous talent potential, just previously lacking a business plan. To make some comparisons, NSW has approx 110K registered league players split 85/25 men and women. An obvious huge upswing in female participation over several years. PNG has approx 15K confirmed registered, already half of the registrations in NZ (~30K), and likely not accounting for all the casual players that aren't officially registered. Unknown numbers of female competitors but that's probably ripe for growth as well.
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