StatPreview: Rd 8 vs Raiders

T

TigerTom

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After a tough loss to Melbourne, this Saturday the Tigers make the trip down the Hume Highway to take on the Canberra Raiders. The Tigers have won 7 of the last 10 games between the two sides. In 30 meetings between the sides, the Tigers hold the head-to-head lead 18-12 and have a 9/16 strike rate at GIO Stadium, though the Tigers are yet to win away from home this season. Canberra have only won 4 of their last 10 games at home. The last time the Tigers played in the nations capital, they defeated the Raiders 20-18\. The Tigers average 21 points per game this season and are conceding an average of 22.4 points per game. The Raiders are scoring an average of 19.9 points per game and are leaking an average of 24.9 points per game.
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The Tigers rank number 1 in the league for forcing errors. After 7 rounds the Tigers force an average of 12.3 errors per game. In hand, the Raiders rank 14th for errors averaging 11.7 per game, yet the Tigers rank 13th averaging 11.6 errors per game. The Tigers are averaging an extra 106 run metres per game than the Raiders this season. Canberra rank 15th in the NRL for run metres and rarely throw the ball around as they average the least passes per game (173). The Tigers did not force a single goal line drop out against Melbourne last week, the Tigers rank 14th for goal line dropouts forced, the Raiders rank 3rd. The Tigers bomb theory may work against Canberra, the Raiders have dropped the most bombs of any team this season. The Tigers really need to step up between 40-60 minutes as this is the Raiders strongest period, winning this period 4 times, losing twice and drawing once. Coherently, the 40-60 minute period is the Tigers worst, losing 5 out of 7 times in this period. The Tigers are a strong first half team, particularly in the first 0-20 minutes, winning 4 out of 7 in this period. The Raiders are yet to win a period between 20-40 minutes.
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Three Tigers players rank inside the top 10 for line breaks (Tedesco 6, Naiqama 5, Rankin 5) whereas Rapana is the only Raider in the top 10 for line-breaks (6). Rapana’s inside man Leilua ranks as one of the top offloaders after 7 rounds with 13\. Additionally, Leilua has 3 line-break assists. A significant proportion of Canberra’s tries this season have come from J.Hodgson short-balls out of dummy-half, creating 4 try-assists. The forwards account for 8 of Canberra’s tries this season, with Papalii scoring 3 of those. While only 3 Tigers forwards have crossed the line this season (Lawrence, Lovett and Sironen). In the battle of the fullbacks, J.Tedesco has played part in 50% of the Tigers tries this season, scoring 8 and assisting 6\. His opposing fullback J.Wighton has only scored 1 try and assisted 3\. However, J.Wighton is yet to make a line-break this season. J.Wighton ranks equal third when it comes to errors this season (11), no Tigers player ranks inside the top 10, however M.Moses ranks second for missed tackles (24). The Tigers props are averaging significantly higher run metres than the Raiders props, however this is likely due to minutes played.
For those traveling down to Canberra, have a safe journey. You can view live stats at mc.championdata.com/nrl

TigerTom.

Stats courtesy of Champion Data.
 
Interesting isn't in
Take it to the team briefing and the game plan is simple
Shut key players down (Offloads) Defend well againt Papali close the line .
That will be enough for them to change their play hopefully resulting in unforced errors
 
@ricksen said:
Great stuff.

Do you have data for run metres for each team as a whole, both for and against?
Click to expand...

Thanks Ricksen,

Raiders:
For - 1443 (15th)
Against - 1579 (10th)

Tigers:
For - 1549 (6th)
Against - 1608 (12th)

Based on averages per game.
 
Since 2009 Tigers are 11/14 against Raiders and this is the 11th best head-2-head win record during this period (top record is Saints with 10 straight wins over Warriors).

It must be noted however that despite the last up Tigers win, Raiders won the first meeting in 2015 and the last meeting in 2014, for 2 of the last 3.

Since 2009 Raiders have the 3rd worst home record of any club, 42/90 (46.67%) ahead of only Sharks and Parra. During this period, all-time bets against Raiders at home have yielded 14c per dollar, which is the highest return against a home side (and 1 of only 5 home sides with this negative odds record).
 
@MacDougall said:
We force the most errors? Sides are dragged down to our level more like it.
Click to expand...

I read that line twice and quizzed myself with my comprehension

Where is the stat for most penalties given ? I'm sure we are ranked 1st
 
@MacDougall said:
We force the most errors? Sides are dragged down to our level more like it.
Click to expand...

In a nutshell ,yes Mac

Teams naturally start playing the same footy that the opposition plays

We play a fairly open brand of footy and the opposition follows suits

Also if you keep the ball alive v the WT's usually we crack defensively when you get 1 on 1's and overlaps out wide
 
IMO the reason for us being so poorly during the 35-60 minute mark is ? i believe JT has got his bench rotation wrong and this is the period where most interchanges occur.
 
Well it seems by those stats that Canberra aren't throwing the ball around this year. Strange that stat Ricky must be coaching very conservatively.
And the raiders dont like the bomb, think we've had good practice at those lol.
 
Great stats analysis. Love it.
It actually changes my outlook to the game and will certainly help me understand tactical decisions JT makes (hopefully) before and during the game.
Bravo. Keep it coming. Will read every week.
 
@foreveratiger said:
IMO the reason for us being so poorly during the 35-60 minute mark is ? i believe JT has got his bench rotation wrong and this is the period where most interchanges occur.
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/NothingButWT/status/721843328145182721

As you've said this is clearly due to poor bench rotation.
That statistic isn't just due to a couple of outliers either, it's pretty consistent every week.
 
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