The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
Juro
Well-known member
Time for one more twist of the curve before the NRL shuts down for the season. Let's look back at how we went, compared with all the other teams.
I'll be looking at the various graphs in coming days, starting from the top.
**MINOR PREMIERSHIP**
The Storm picked up the minor premiership. They had a neck and neck battle all year with the Sharks, with it all coming down to their Round 26 clash to decide it. There were a couple other early contenders, in the Broncos and Cowboys, but they both fell by the wayside by about Round 12.
Teams reached their peak as follows:
Sharks - 62% (Round 20)
Broncos - 32% (Round 8)
Cowboys - 23% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 13% (Round 2)
Eels - 12% (Round 7)
Bulldogs - 12% (Round 4)
Raiders - 11% (Round 3)
Titans - 11% (Round 4)
Wests Tigers - 11% (Round 2)
Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Warriors - 6% (season kickoff)
I'll be looking at the various graphs in coming days, starting from the top.
**MINOR PREMIERSHIP**
The Storm picked up the minor premiership. They had a neck and neck battle all year with the Sharks, with it all coming down to their Round 26 clash to decide it. There were a couple other early contenders, in the Broncos and Cowboys, but they both fell by the wayside by about Round 12.
Teams reached their peak as follows:
Sharks - 62% (Round 20)
Broncos - 32% (Round 8)
Cowboys - 23% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 13% (Round 2)
Eels - 12% (Round 7)
Bulldogs - 12% (Round 4)
Raiders - 11% (Round 3)
Titans - 11% (Round 4)
Wests Tigers - 11% (Round 2)
Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Warriors - 6% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**TOP 4**
As mentioned in yesterday's post, the Storm and Sharks were the two teams to break away early in fighting for the minor premiership. Little surprise then to see they were all but guaranteed a top 4 finish by halfway through the season. The Raiders were looking unlikely after 10 rounds, but then managed to win 13 of their remaining 14 games. The Cowboys looked likely all season, before stumbling in Rounds 21 to 23, then storming home in their last 3 games.
Teams were at their lowest as follows:
Raiders - 12% (Round 10)
Cowboys - 15% (Round 23)
Sharks - 19% (Round 1)
Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
As mentioned in yesterday's post, the Storm and Sharks were the two teams to break away early in fighting for the minor premiership. Little surprise then to see they were all but guaranteed a top 4 finish by halfway through the season. The Raiders were looking unlikely after 10 rounds, but then managed to win 13 of their remaining 14 games. The Cowboys looked likely all season, before stumbling in Rounds 21 to 23, then storming home in their last 3 games.
Teams were at their lowest as follows:
Raiders - 12% (Round 10)
Cowboys - 15% (Round 23)
Sharks - 19% (Round 1)
Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**TOP 4 (continued)**
Now looking at the teams that didn't make the top 4, which teams came closest? The two teams that gave it the best shot were the Broncos and Bulldogs.
The Broncos started the season very strongly, and peaked at 79% in Round 10, then slid slowly back through the rest of the season. They still had a reasonable chance of clinching it in Round 26 but failed at the death.
The Bulldogs kept in the hunt throughout the season and steadily built their chances from Round 13 to Round 23, peaking at 78%. From there it all fell apart with them losing their last 3 games to finish 7th.
The following teams peaked as follows:
Broncos - 79% (Round 10)
Bulldogs - 78% (Round 23)
Eels - 45% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 42% (Round 2)
Titans - 37% (Round 4)
Wests Tigers - 37% (Round 2)
Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Warriors - 25% (season kickoff)
Now looking at the teams that didn't make the top 4, which teams came closest? The two teams that gave it the best shot were the Broncos and Bulldogs.
The Broncos started the season very strongly, and peaked at 79% in Round 10, then slid slowly back through the rest of the season. They still had a reasonable chance of clinching it in Round 26 but failed at the death.
The Bulldogs kept in the hunt throughout the season and steadily built their chances from Round 13 to Round 23, peaking at 78%. From there it all fell apart with them losing their last 3 games to finish 7th.
The following teams peaked as follows:
Broncos - 79% (Round 10)
Bulldogs - 78% (Round 23)
Eels - 45% (Round 7)
Rabbitohs - 42% (Round 2)
Titans - 37% (Round 4)
Wests Tigers - 37% (Round 2)
Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Warriors - 25% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**Top 8**
For the next installment of my 2016 wrap-up, we shift to those teams that made the finals, either as the golden children who were always on the right path, or those who scraped in at the last moment.
This year, there were a lot of golden children, with 6 of the 8 finalists having greater than 60% chance from Round 12 onwards, and greater than 80% chance from Round 16 onwards. Only the Panthers and Titans had to struggle to make the finals, yet their chances were hovering around 40-60% for most of the season.
Of the teams who made it, their lowest chance was:
Broncos, Bulldogs, Storm - 50% (season kickoff)
Cowboys - 50% (Round 2)
Raiders - 48% (Round 10)
Sharks - 43% (Round 1)
Panthers - 32% (Round 8)
Titans - 24% (Round 9)
For the next installment of my 2016 wrap-up, we shift to those teams that made the finals, either as the golden children who were always on the right path, or those who scraped in at the last moment.
This year, there were a lot of golden children, with 6 of the 8 finalists having greater than 60% chance from Round 12 onwards, and greater than 80% chance from Round 16 onwards. Only the Panthers and Titans had to struggle to make the finals, yet their chances were hovering around 40-60% for most of the season.
Of the teams who made it, their lowest chance was:
Broncos, Bulldogs, Storm - 50% (season kickoff)
Cowboys - 50% (Round 2)
Raiders - 48% (Round 10)
Sharks - 43% (Round 1)
Panthers - 32% (Round 8)
Titans - 24% (Round 9)
Juro
Well-known member
I'd better get a wriggle on if I want to finish this before the Grand Final…
**Top 8**
Now we look at those teams that failed to make the finals (yes, that's us, again). Here you have the ones who were never in the hunt, the ones who gave a little hope before fading and those who held on for as long as they could before finally succumbing (us in our traditional role, again).
This year, the Knights and Roosters never made it out of first gear. Parra looked like world beaters before their dodgy dealings were revealed. The Warriors held on until Round 25, and we made it all the way to Round 26 before imploding. So that makes us the best of the rest, right? Yay!?!
Of the teams who didn't make it, their highest chance was:
Eels - 78% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 70% (Round 2)
Wests Tigers - 65% (Round 2)
Warriors - 62% (Round 18)
Knights, Roosters, Sea Eagles - 50% (season kickoff)
**Top 8**
Now we look at those teams that failed to make the finals (yes, that's us, again). Here you have the ones who were never in the hunt, the ones who gave a little hope before fading and those who held on for as long as they could before finally succumbing (us in our traditional role, again).
This year, the Knights and Roosters never made it out of first gear. Parra looked like world beaters before their dodgy dealings were revealed. The Warriors held on until Round 25, and we made it all the way to Round 26 before imploding. So that makes us the best of the rest, right? Yay!?!
Of the teams who didn't make it, their highest chance was:
Eels - 78% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 70% (Round 2)
Wests Tigers - 65% (Round 2)
Warriors - 62% (Round 18)
Knights, Roosters, Sea Eagles - 50% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**Bottom 4**
Today I shift to the undesirables, where you want to miss out! Looking at the bottom 4, and first those who did miss out, again we feature heavily. Our 6 losses on the trot had us as a likely candidate before we resurrected our season.
Looking at the curve though, the main story of interest is the Rabbitohs. While most other teams that avoided the dishonour steadily moved away throughout the season, it looked ever more likely that they would fall into the bottom 4\. By Round 22, they had only managed to win 5 out of 20 matches. Yet they somehow won their last 4 wins to get out of jail.
So how close did everyone get?
Rabbitohs - 96% (Round 22)
Wests Tigers - 52% (Round 8)
Warriors - 46% (Round 3)
Dragons - 43% (Round 6)
Titans - 41% (Round 9)
Panthers - 37% (Round 4)
Sharks - 31% (Round 1)
Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
Today I shift to the undesirables, where you want to miss out! Looking at the bottom 4, and first those who did miss out, again we feature heavily. Our 6 losses on the trot had us as a likely candidate before we resurrected our season.
Looking at the curve though, the main story of interest is the Rabbitohs. While most other teams that avoided the dishonour steadily moved away throughout the season, it looked ever more likely that they would fall into the bottom 4\. By Round 22, they had only managed to win 5 out of 20 matches. Yet they somehow won their last 4 wins to get out of jail.
So how close did everyone get?
Rabbitohs - 96% (Round 22)
Wests Tigers - 52% (Round 8)
Warriors - 46% (Round 3)
Dragons - 43% (Round 6)
Titans - 41% (Round 9)
Panthers - 37% (Round 4)
Sharks - 31% (Round 1)
Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Storm - 25% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**Bottom 4**
If the Rabbitohs somehow managed to get out of jail on the last curve, the Sea Eagles were polar opposites. While they looked very likely in the first half of the season, having won 4 of their first 15 matches, they then reversed their fortunes, winning their next 4 to almost give them a chance of making the finals. However, they again reversed their fortunes, losing their last 5 matches. Bizarre…
So bizarre was Manly's season that it is hardly worth mentioning the Eels.
Of the teams to fall to the bottom 4, they were at their lowest chance in:
Sea Eagles - 4% (Round 22)
Eels - 5% (Round 9)
Knights, Roosters - 25% (season kickoff)
If the Rabbitohs somehow managed to get out of jail on the last curve, the Sea Eagles were polar opposites. While they looked very likely in the first half of the season, having won 4 of their first 15 matches, they then reversed their fortunes, winning their next 4 to almost give them a chance of making the finals. However, they again reversed their fortunes, losing their last 5 matches. Bizarre…
So bizarre was Manly's season that it is hardly worth mentioning the Eels.
Of the teams to fall to the bottom 4, they were at their lowest chance in:
Sea Eagles - 4% (Round 22)
Eels - 5% (Round 9)
Knights, Roosters - 25% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**Wooden Spoon**
Now we come to the final challenge. One we have flirted with occasionally but never succumbed to. Who will be last!
Of course, the Knights picked up the gong, for the second year running and the third time in their history. They had an early battle with the Roosters, then had to shortly contend with the Eels once their punishment was announced. But from Round 14 onwards, it was a one-horse race.
Of the teams to avoid the spoon, this is when they peaked:
Eels - 52% (Round 11)
Roosters - 28% (Round 5)
Warriors - 15% (Round 3)
Wests Tigers - 15% (Round 8)
Dragons - 12% (Round 6)
Sea Eagles - 11% (Round 2)
Panthers - 11% (Round 2)
Titans - 10% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 9% (Round 9)
Sharks - 9% (Round 1)
Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Storm - 6% (season kickoff)
Now we come to the final challenge. One we have flirted with occasionally but never succumbed to. Who will be last!
Of course, the Knights picked up the gong, for the second year running and the third time in their history. They had an early battle with the Roosters, then had to shortly contend with the Eels once their punishment was announced. But from Round 14 onwards, it was a one-horse race.
Of the teams to avoid the spoon, this is when they peaked:
Eels - 52% (Round 11)
Roosters - 28% (Round 5)
Warriors - 15% (Round 3)
Wests Tigers - 15% (Round 8)
Dragons - 12% (Round 6)
Sea Eagles - 11% (Round 2)
Panthers - 11% (Round 2)
Titans - 10% (Round 9)
Rabbitohs - 9% (Round 9)
Sharks - 9% (Round 1)
Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Storm - 6% (season kickoff)
Juro
Well-known member
**Wooden Spoon**
So the Knights were terrible this year, with the worst win-loss record in NRL history. Only one win and one draw for the whole season. And just think, if Sims had been pinged for kicking the second ball at Rankin, they might have not got that win too… Yes, it still burns...
But how terrible were they compared to other spooners in recent history? Let's have a look at some interesting years.
While they were spectacularly unsuccessful this year, it really wasn't all that bad. I think the Eels losing their points gave them a bit of false comfort on the curve. And the Roosters kept them company for a long time too.
But then you compare their effort against:
- the Knights 2005 season, where they lost their first 13 games before staging a late fightback, only locking in the spoon in Round 26.
- the Rabbitohs 2006 season, where they reached over 90% chance of winning the spoon by Round 16.
- and of course the Storm 2010 season, where they went from early season high-flyers to locking in the spoon in Round 7 thanks to the salary cap punishment.
So the Knights were terrible this year, with the worst win-loss record in NRL history. Only one win and one draw for the whole season. And just think, if Sims had been pinged for kicking the second ball at Rankin, they might have not got that win too… Yes, it still burns...
But how terrible were they compared to other spooners in recent history? Let's have a look at some interesting years.
While they were spectacularly unsuccessful this year, it really wasn't all that bad. I think the Eels losing their points gave them a bit of false comfort on the curve. And the Roosters kept them company for a long time too.
But then you compare their effort against:
- the Knights 2005 season, where they lost their first 13 games before staging a late fightback, only locking in the spoon in Round 26.
- the Rabbitohs 2006 season, where they reached over 90% chance of winning the spoon by Round 16.
- and of course the Storm 2010 season, where they went from early season high-flyers to locking in the spoon in Round 7 thanks to the salary cap punishment.
AngryEmu
Member
Thanks for your efforts Juro. Enjoy reading this through the season and the end of year wrap up has been great.
Hopefully see it back next year.
Hopefully see it back next year.
Juro
Well-known member
@DavidDuncan said:
Thanks DD. I look forward to one day doing this and having the curve turn the right direction at the end of the year. Next year may be it…
Juro
Well-known member
Here we go again, folks. Another year of the curve. Taylor obviously had no idea how to drive the thing. Can Cleary get it moving in the right direction???
Key results:
- 0.7% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Dragons are 14%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 62%, Dragons are 47%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 86%, Dragons are 75%)
- 50% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Dragons are 8%)
- 17% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.4%, Dragons are 0.9%)
At 23% chance of making the finals, this is our worst start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 18 years. The previous worst was 26% in 2012, where we also started with a 1-4 record, but only had a -42 F/A record and were sitting 3rd last.
Key results:
- 0.7% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Dragons are 14%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 62%, Dragons are 47%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 86%, Dragons are 75%)
- 50% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Dragons are 8%)
- 17% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.4%, Dragons are 0.9%)
At 23% chance of making the finals, this is our worst start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 18 years. The previous worst was 26% in 2012, where we also started with a 1-4 record, but only had a -42 F/A record and were sitting 3rd last.
jirskyr
Well-known member
Oh 2014 what a bitter disappointment after so much promise. UP UP UP, gradual down, PLUMMET.
@ said:
Dragongate…?
Juro
Well-known member
Pull up! Pull up!!
Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 22%, Storm are 19%, Titans are 0.5%)
- 9% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 58%, Storm are 54%, Titans are 5%)
- 28% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 84%, Storm are 81%, Titans are 19%)
- 42% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 56%, Dragons are 4%, Storm are 5%)
- 12% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 20%, Dragons are 0.4%, Storm are 0.5%)
With that win, we are now at our 3rd worst start to the season (in front of 2012 (19%) and 2007 (28%).
ps I'm glad to see the back of Monday night footy. It's good to be able to do the weekend wrap on a Monday morning…
Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 22%, Storm are 19%, Titans are 0.5%)
- 9% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 58%, Storm are 54%, Titans are 5%)
- 28% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 84%, Storm are 81%, Titans are 19%)
- 42% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 56%, Dragons are 4%, Storm are 5%)
- 12% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 20%, Dragons are 0.4%, Storm are 0.5%)
With that win, we are now at our 3rd worst start to the season (in front of 2012 (19%) and 2007 (28%).
ps I'm glad to see the back of Monday night footy. It's good to be able to do the weekend wrap on a Monday morning…
old_man_tiger
Well-known member
@ said:
Love your work.
No MNF is better for SuperCoach too.
