The J(uro) Curve

@upthetigers said:
Imagine also having 2 points from the Newcastle game still feel robbed.
Click to expand...

To quote the ref when we complained about that 2nd ball on the field, "That's unfortunate". :imp:
 
Hey Juro, seeing as it appears you have the data from as far back as 2008, could you add in as many years as possible? Keen to see how this year is faring to 2007, 2008 and 2004.
 
Now the count down for the curve. Sometimes I hate the Monday game after we win on a Sunday. Mean I have to wait an extra day to see the latest results.

I love the thread.
 
@Squaddy said:
Hey Juro, seeing as it appears you have the data from as far back as 2008, could you add in as many years as possible? Keen to see how this year is faring to 2007, 2008 and 2004.
Click to expand...

Okay, Squaddy, because you asked for it!

![](http://i.imgur.com/C86me9e.png)

I was going to say that the problem with adding all the years is that it all becomes a jumbled mess. However, in looking at the graph, it all becomes pretty clear by Round 22\. We have 3 distinct groups:
1\. The abject failure years, where we are either completely out of the running or only a mathematical chance (2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015)
2\. The glory years, where we are almost certain to make the finals (2005, 2010, 2011)
3\. The 'could this be the year' years, where we are in with a good chance of making the finals, only to see it collapse in the final few rounds (2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012)

At the moment we are right at the bottom of this 3rd group. Maybe this year we will start a totally new group, where we finally win Round 26 to claim our finals spot. Who knows…

Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 61%, Sharks are 39%. Raiders are 0.03%, and the Cowboys become the 13th team to reach 0.00%)
- 0.3% chance of finishing in top 4 (2 teams are already on 100.00%, and Manly join 5 teams on 0.00%)
- 47% chance of finishing in top 8 (Bulldogs and Raiders join the 2 teams already on 100.00%, while 4 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 100.00%, Roosters are 99.5%, while we, with the Panthers, Titans and Warriors join 6 other teams on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 96%, Roosters are 3%, Rabbitohs are 0.7% and Eels are 0.2%)

We can still finish anywhere from 3rd to 12th.

After 22 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 40%. While we are above average, 2016 only ranks as our 10th best (or 8th worst) season to this point. Yes, we actually slipped down the order of best seasons despite the win. We were overtaken by 2004 (which went from 36% to 56%) and 2012 (which went from 27% to 51%). In both those years, we jumped from 10th to 8th in Round 22.

Needless to say, a win next week would be massive for us!
 
For those interested in the top 8 cut-off, my model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 22 - 0.00% (down 0.01% since last week)
- 24 - 0.4% (down 1.8%)
- 25 - 1% (no change)
- 26 - 32% (down 15%)
- 27 - 18% (up 6%)
- 28 - 46% (up 10%)
- 29 - 2% (up 1%)
- 30 - 0.8% (up 0.4%)

Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.0% (down 0.1%)
- 25 - 0.01% (down 0.1%)
- 26 - 5% (down 9%)
- 27 - 7% (down 2%)
- 28 - 65% (up 3%)
- 29 - 9% (up 1%)
- 30 - 14% (up 7%)
- 31 - 0.02% (down 0.03%)
- 32 - 0.06% (up 0.06%)

So the numbers are showing the scores for both 8th and 9th place are increasing. While 8th might finish on 28 points, it is likely that 9th will also, meaning the team with the worse F/A will miss out.

30 points has to be our minimum target!
 
Had never really paid much attention over the yrs to this thread, but its a really good read now that i've clicked on it. Just wondering what the chances percentage wise the teams around us have of finishing in the 8?
 
yep, we definitely have to win 3/4

unless the knights go on a winning run 2/4 will see us just out of the 8 a la 2004
 
@GNR4LIFE said:
Had never really paid much attention over the yrs to this thread, but its a really good read now that i've clicked on it. Just wondering what the chances percentage wise the teams around us have of finishing in the 8?
Click to expand...

Broncos - 94%
Panthers - 59%
Warriors - 58%
Titans - 37%
Manly - 5%
 
We really have to give a side a right royal hiding in the following weeks to keep up with the Warriors and Penriff.
 
@Juro said:
For those interested in the top 8 cut-off, my model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 22 - 0.00% (down 0.01% since last week)
- 24 - 0.4% (down 1.8%)
- 25 - 1% (no change)
- 26 - 32% (down 15%)
- 27 - 18% (up 6%)
- 28 - 46% (up 10%)
- 29 - 2% (up 1%)
- 30 - 0.8% (up 0.4%)

Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.0% (down 0.1%)
- 25 - 0.01% (down 0.1%)
- 26 - 5% (down 9%)
- 27 - 7% (down 2%)
- 28 - 65% (up 3%)
- 29 - 9% (up 1%)
- 30 - 14% (up 7%)
- 31 - 0.02% (down 0.03%)
- 32 - 0.06% (up 0.06%)

So the numbers are showing the scores for both 8th and 9th place are increasing. While 8th might finish on 28 points, it is likely that 9th will also, meaning the team with the worse F/A will miss out.

30 points has to be our minimum target!
Click to expand...

So the team needs to win 3 out of the next 4\. It will be an interesting month !!!
 
Thanks for the analysis Juro, makes for an interesting read especially at this end of the competition. Hopefully you're making a bit of money out of your findings if you're using them to have a bet!
 
Yeah but how long can they maintain the rage for?

Won 7 of the last 10, they win the next four and that's 11/14 and seven on the trot heading into the finals.
 
We won 9 in a row before droping the last game in 2005\. We finished 4th and first week of the finals smashed the Cowboys.

Not say this can happen again. Just it isn't farfetch
 
Winning 3 in a row is a bit of a feat for us. We have only managed 4 in a row or better 7 times in our entire history!
 
Juro, I'm not liking the look of the bottom half of the ladder. The Cowboys and Broncos are in 5th and 6th with the Warriors still in the mix as well.

What are the odds of a Tigers fan being able to attend a week 1 final in NSW? I was thinking best case we'd play the Dogs first up, but they seem to be cementing their top 4 spot.
 
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