The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

Despite having the bye last week, other games' results also have an impact on our chances, even if only slight.


Key results:
- 0.2% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 26%, Manly are 0.01%)
- 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 73%, Manly are 1%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Cowboys are 94%, Manly are 10%)
- 42% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 1%, Manly are 64%)
- 11% chance of wooden spoon (Cowboys are 0.01%, Manly are 24%)

We are almost at the point where teams start to get to 0.00% chance of finishing first or last (ie not a single run of the 10,000 simulations giving that result). Last year this happened for the first time in Round 13 (Sharks hit 0.00% chance of finishing first) and Round 14 (Panthers, Souths, Roosters and Manly hit 0.00% chance of finishing last).

What a difference a year makes for Manly…

 

[ryanda01]

1 in 4 chance of a finals appearance… hope the models are right!!! :wink:

 

[Juro]

Well my model does assume a 50% chance of winning each game. Too optimistic???

 

[cqtiger]

Well my model does assume a 50% chance of winning each game. Too optimistic???

That's because your formula takes into account 2 x halves. We are usually there, or thereabouts in the first half.

Then the ref blows his whistle for the second half. That's where your equation goes south.

_Posted using RoarFEED 4.2.0_

 

[LCA]

Well, we're trending towards a similar endpoint to 2013\. Wow, that was hardly a stellar year. I hope the broken orange line graph starts heading north soon.

 

[Juro]

Another loss means that we have left the peaks (small though they are) and are plummeting down into the valley, with our chances of making the top 8 dropping another 8%. But thankfully the chances of getting the spoon didn't rise too much (up just 2%), thanks to teams below us also losing.


Key results:
- 0.04% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 35%, Manly are the first team to reach 0.00%)
- 2% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 82%, Manly are 0.3%)
- 16% chance of finishing in top 8 (Cowboys are 98%, Manly are 5%)
- 51% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 0.1%, Manly are 74%)
- 13% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos and Cowboys are the first 2 teams to reach 0.00%, Manly are 33%)

Over the last 10 years (2005-14), we were on average a 51% chance of making the top 8 after 13 rounds. We were only worse than our current position in 2009 and 2013\. Not looking good…

 

[underdog]

2009 we made a massive run for the 8 over the last 9 rounds - won 7 of our last 9 games, and only missed out on a couple of results in the final two rounds (we really should have beaten the Gold Coast)

Reason I remember it so well, A mate of mine and I laid a 50 each on the Tigers at $8.00 to make the 8 based on who they had coming up - and I was convinced they'd make it with two losses.

The only thing that threw it out was the final day had Penrith playing Newcastle. If that had been any other match played then we would have been in the 8.

Point I'm trying to make is it's not over yet folks…

 

[Juro]

The thing that sealed our fate in 2009 was TNT's career ending injury vs the Eels. If he hadn't been injured, we were a great chance to win that game. Instead, Parra leapfrogged us into 8th place and made it all the way to the final.

 

[Tim Sheens]

The thing that sealed our fate in 2009 was TNT's career ending injury vs the Eels. If he hadn't been injured, we were a great chance to win that game. Instead, Parra leapfrogged us into 8th place and made it all the way to the final.

Equally as disappointing as this year's trend on your straight lined curve 😢

 

[fairdinkum]

The thing that sealed our fate in 2009 was TNT's career ending injury vs the Eels. If he hadn't been injured, we were a great chance to win that game. Instead, Parra leapfrogged us into 8th place and made it all the way to the final.

I remember that game well as I was working in a bar and for the first time in 3 years there were heaps of tigers fans at the bar watching it. You could sense the Tigers were charging towards the finals, it was in the air. If TNT had not snapped his ankle off towards the end of the game we would have won against the Eels, continued our roll on and finished the season in 5th - 7th. That season had a little touch of 05 about it with the run we had made in the 10 rounds prior. The end of that season had a lot to do with us making the Top 4 the next 2 years. Who knows, maybe we can get a roll on at the back end of this season and set up the next couple of years with experience for our young fellas, we seem to get on these rolls every few years?

 

[ryanda01]

The thing that sealed our fate in 2009 was TNT's career ending injury vs the Eels. If he hadn't been injured, we were a great chance to win that game. Instead, Parra leapfrogged us into 8th place and made it all the way to the final.

Hey Juro,

Its been a bit quite on this front. How we travelling now for a potential wooden spoon?

 

[Spartan117]

Im not looking forward to the answer….

 

[happy_tiger]

The Curve is in rehab no doubt

It wants to support another side

 

[foreveratiger]

It's reaching Lava as we speak :laughing:

 

[Juro]

Welcome back to the J Curve. After almost 12 months of intensive counselling, the curve is ready to give the dice another roll. Yes, in all likelihood, we are staring down the barrel of another painful season, but at least the curve can show us just how painful it is using an objective basis…

Now that we are 11 rounds into 2016, let's see how we are sitting. Please note that I have assumed Parra will eventually get stripped of their 12 points, even if the NRL are taking their bloody time updating the official table.


Key results:
- 0.03% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 29%, Eels, Knights and Roosters have already reached 0.00%)
- 3% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 82%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 98%, Eels are 0.7%)
- 31% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Sharks are 0.05%, Eels are 92%)
- 3% chance of wooden spoon (Cowboys, Sharks and Storm have already reached 0.00%, Eels are 52%)

While we have been struggling for any sort of respectable form, it looks like over half the comp are in a similar boat. And to think we are only 2 points (and a fair chunk for F&A) outside the 8 despite how we have played so far, it is definitely not out of the realms of possibility that a month of decent footy can sneak us into the finals.

 

[Nelson]

Welcome back to the J Curve. After almost 12 months of intensive counselling, the curve is ready to give the dice another roll. Yes, in all likelihood, we are staring down the barrel of another painful season, but at least the curve can show us just how painful it is using an objective basis…

Now that we are 11 rounds into 2016, let's see how we are sitting. Please note that I have assumed Parra will eventually get stripped of their 12 points, even if the NRL are taking their bloody time updating the official table.


Key results:
- 0.03% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 29%, Eels, Knights and Roosters have already reached 0.00%)
- 3% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 82%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 98%, Eels are 0.7%)
- 31% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Sharks are 0.05%, Eels are 92%)
- 3% chance of wooden spoon (Cowboys, Sharks and Storm have already reached 0.00%, Eels are 52%)

While we have been struggling for any sort of respectable form, it looks like over half the comp are in a similar boat. And to think we are only 2 points (and a fair chunk for F&A) outside the 8 despite how we have played so far, it is definitely not out of the realms of possibility that a month of decent footy can sneak us into the finals.

It's pretty hard to factor in Parra given that they aren't really on 0 points based on form and will perform a lot better than some of the other teams above them (Newcastle). The NRL aren't taking their points off them until they've had a chance to file their notice of response to the charges, which is some time in June.

 

[Spartan117]

There is certainly a pattern in the image across the last few seasons.

Its quite alarming.

 

[Nelson]

There is certainly a pattern in the image across the last few seasons.

Its quite alarming.

Yeah they all end in the same place! :laughing:

 

[2041]

So this will be the fourth year running in which we haven't even played meaningful football in September. In only one of those years have we even played meaningful football in August, pretty much. Utterly dismal from top to bottom.

 

[Juro]

I only just noticed that the y-axis only goes to 90% this year. This is automatically set based on the data. Last year it was still at 100%, thanks to 2011's finals series. A sad string of failures, either from early in the season (2013 and 2015) or fading at the end (2012 and 2014) have been our recent history.

At the moment, we are in line with 2015 (up by 0.62% to be exact). Like any good time travel movie though, the future has not yet been written. We can decide our own fate!