The J-curve looked like it was yet another victim of COVID, but life finds a way.
While the curve didn't die, my computer did. Along with my computer went my model that does all the calculations. It has taken a while to recreate the model and redo all the previous years, but here we are.
I was going to wait until we were definitely in or out, but that was even more painful than just getting on with it. So, let's have a look where we stand.
2026, 13 rounds down, 14 rounds to go, winter is here. And things are fairly positive, at least compared to the dark days of the last several years.
We are still a 52% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2018. This would rank as 10th best of our 27 seasons to date and almost double our chances after 13 weeks in 2005.
View attachment 38428
Key numbers are:
*
1% of minor premiership (same as last week)
- Panthers are 65% (+13%)
- Warriors are 18% (-8%)
- Dragons, Titans and Bulldogs are already at 0.00%
*
16% of finishing in top 4 (+5%)
- Panthers are 95% (+4%)
- Warriors are 73% (-5%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%
*
52% of finishing in top 8 (+10%)
- Panthers are 99.8% (+0.6%)
- Warriors are 95% (-2%)
- Dragons are 0.07% (+0.02%)
*
9% of finishing in bottom 4 (-4%)
- Dragons are 96% (-1%)
- Titans are 74% (no change)
- Eels are 55% (+8%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%
*
0.4% of wooden spoon (-0.1%)
- Dragons are 63% (-8%)
- Titans are 17% (+2%)
- Panthers, Warriors, Cowboys and Knights are already at 0.00%
