The J(uro) Curve

[bigsiro]

Yay, we won, but it only had a marginal impact on our chances of making the finals. Despite being 10th (equal 9th even) and only 2 points behind 8th, we are still only a 24% chance of playing in the semis.

The problem, as we all know, is our F/A (-74). Yes, we are only 2 points behind 8th, but we need to effectively make up 2 games in 6 rounds to catch up.

Yep, right now we aren't in poll position but if we make up that 2 game differential (i.e. we win 2 games and our rivals lose 2 games) wouldn't the F/A be far more favourable?

 

[Juro]

Yay, we won, but it only had a marginal impact on our chances of making the finals. Despite being 10th (equal 9th even) and only 2 points behind 8th, we are still only a 24% chance of playing in the semis.

The problem, as we all know, is our F/A (-74). Yes, we are only 2 points behind 8th, but we need to effectively make up 2 games in 6 rounds to catch up.

Yep, right now we aren't in poll position but if we make up that 2 game differential (i.e. we win 2 games and our rivals lose 2 games) wouldn't the F/A be far more favourable?

My model does allow for shifts in F/A based on results (with a random F/A differential). I can't recall off the top of my head what the average winning score is, but let's say it is 12\. If we win 1 and Penrith (-13 F/A) lose 1, we will still be behind them, even if we are both on 22 points.

Of all the teams in front of us, the next worst F/A is NZ (-21, or 53 better than us). So in the event that we are equal with any other team, we are very likely to be worse on F/A. Our only hope is to be in front on points.
- If we finish on 30 points (5 wins out of 6), we are a good chance.
- If we finish on 28 points (4 wins out of 6), we will need to hope that other results go our way!

 

[bigsiro]

Well, we can beat Parra, NQ (minus Thurston), Titans, Penrith.
Canberra will be tough and Warriors will be tough in NZ.

We are a way off a top 4/8 team but winning 5 of last 6 games will give us more faith and confidence.
If we finish in top 8 it will be remarkable for this team.

 

[tigerman80]

Well, we can beat Parra, NQ (minus Thurston), Titans, Penrith.
Canberra will be tough and Warriors will be tough in NZ.

We are a way off a top 4/8 team but winning 5 of last 6 games will give us more faith and confidence.
If we finish in top 8 it will be remarkable for this team.

With our roster and it pretty much being a top "9" with no eels, anything less than a finals berth would be a failure and there repercussions for those in charge.

 

[bigsiro]

I doubt there will be the kind of repercussions we would hope for, especially considering that a fair, optimistic expectation prior to 2016 had us finishing outside the 8\. Having said that, any finish outside the top 8 is failure and should be deemed so.

 

[MacDougall]

Being in contention for the 8 with a 6 loss run in there is an outstanding effort tbh. That run of 6 losses was no reflection of the team. It was an avalanche of negative mentality that we broke and kept broken. This season has been a watershed. If the Tigers play up to the standard they have played this year aside from that six game run we are easily a top 8 side. I think we are possibly even a top 4 side next year.

 

[tigerman80]

I doubt there will be the kind of repercussions we would hope for, especially considering that a fair, optimistic expectation prior to 2016 had us finishing outside the 8\. Having said that, any finish outside the top 8 is failure and should be deemed so.

Not sure how true it is or not, but Taylors main KPI for this year is top 8\. If we make it then he gets his third year, if we dont then hopefully he will suffer the repercussions especially when you consider someone like the titans will most likely be in the top 8.

 

[Kavi]

Yay, we won, but it only had a marginal impact on our chances of making the finals. Despite being 10th (equal 9th even) and only 2 points behind 8th, we are still only a 24% chance of playing in the semis.

The problem, as we all know, is our F/A (-74). Yes, we are only 2 points behind 8th, but we need to effectively make up 2 games in 6 rounds to catch up.

Yep, right now we aren't in poll position but if we make up that 2 game differential (i.e. we win 2 games and our rivals lose 2 games) wouldn't the F/A be far more favourable?

My model does allow for shifts in F/A based on results (with a random F/A differential). I can't recall off the top of my head what the average winning score is, but let's say it is 12\. If we win 1 and Penrith (-13 F/A) lose 1, we will still be behind them, even if we are both on 22 points.

Of all the teams in front of us, the next worst F/A is NZ (-21, or 53 better than us). So in the event that we are equal with any other team, we are very likely to be worse on F/A. Our only hope is to be in front on points.
- If we finish on 30 points (5 wins out of 6), we are a good chance.
- If we finish on 28 points (4 wins out of 6), we will need to hope that other results go our way!

id be very suprised if 30 points doesnt get any team in to the finals this year.

 

[Juro]

Yep, right now we aren't in poll position but if we make up that 2 game differential (i.e. we win 2 games and our rivals lose 2 games) wouldn't the F/A be far more favourable?

My model does allow for shifts in F/A based on results (with a random F/A differential). I can't recall off the top of my head what the average winning score is, but let's say it is 12\. If we win 1 and Penrith (-13 F/A) lose 1, we will still be behind them, even if we are both on 22 points.

Of all the teams in front of us, the next worst F/A is NZ (-21, or 53 better than us). So in the event that we are equal with any other team, we are very likely to be worse on F/A. Our only hope is to be in front on points.
- If we finish on 30 points (5 wins out of 6), we are a good chance.
- If we finish on 28 points (4 wins out of 6), we will need to hope that other results go our way!

id be very suprised if 30 points doesnt get any team in to the finals this year.

My model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 22 - 0.04%
- 24 - 5%
- 26 - 53%
- 27 - 0.5%
- 28 - 40%
- 29 - 0.2%
- 30 - 1%

Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.3%
- 26 - 19%
- 27 - 5%
- 28 - 66%
- 29 - 2%
- 30 - 13%
- 32 - 0.06%

 

[coolcat]

now is the count down til the next j(uro) curve is posted. It is the highlight of the week when we have a win. :stuck_out_tongue:

 

[coolcat]

Yep, right now we aren't in poll position but if we make up that 2 game differential (i.e. we win 2 games and our rivals lose 2 games) wouldn't the F/A be far more favourable?

My model does allow for shifts in F/A based on results (with a random F/A differential). I can't recall off the top of my head what the average winning score is, but let's say it is 12\. If we win 1 and Penrith (-13 F/A) lose 1, we will still be behind them, even if we are both on 22 points.

Of all the teams in front of us, the next worst F/A is NZ (-21, or 53 better than us). So in the event that we are equal with any other team, we are very likely to be worse on F/A. Our only hope is to be in front on points.
- If we finish on 30 points (5 wins out of 6), we are a good chance.
- If we finish on 28 points (4 wins out of 6), we will need to hope that other results go our way!

id be very suprised if 30 points doesnt get any team in to the finals this year.

My model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 22 - 0.04%
- 24 - 5%
- 26 - 53%
- 27 - 0.5%
- 28 - 40%
- 29 - 0.2%
- 30 - 1%

Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.3%
- 26 - 19%
- 27 - 5%
- 28 - 66%
- 29 - 2%
- 30 - 13%
- 32 - 0.06%

with these numbers, do you have the percentages of what points the tigers will finish on? if so do you have the titans penrith and worriers percentages as well

 

[Juro]

My model does allow for shifts in F/A based on results (with a random F/A differential). I can't recall off the top of my head what the average winning score is, but let's say it is 12\. If we win 1 and Penrith (-13 F/A) lose 1, we will still be behind them, even if we are both on 22 points.

Of all the teams in front of us, the next worst F/A is NZ (-21, or 53 better than us). So in the event that we are equal with any other team, we are very likely to be worse on F/A. Our only hope is to be in front on points.
- If we finish on 30 points (5 wins out of 6), we are a good chance.
- If we finish on 28 points (4 wins out of 6), we will need to hope that other results go our way!

id be very suprised if 30 points doesnt get any team in to the finals this year.

My model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 22 - 0.04%
- 24 - 5%
- 26 - 53%
- 27 - 0.5%
- 28 - 40%
- 29 - 0.2%
- 30 - 1%

Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.3%
- 26 - 19%
- 27 - 5%
- 28 - 66%
- 29 - 2%
- 30 - 13%
- 32 - 0.06%

with these numbers, do you have the percentages of what points the tigers will finish on? if so do you have the titans penrith and worriers percentages as well

The points we finish on are in the model somewhere, but it's not something I currently extract. The key number for me is where teams finish relative to each other. It is no comfort if we finish on 30 points but outside the 8…

From last week, the chances of each team to make the top 8 were:
Sharks: 100.00%
Storm: 100.00%
Cowboys: 99.9%
Raiders: 99%
Bulldogs: 98%
Broncos: 92%
Titans: 66%
Panthers: 61%
Warriors: 34%
Tigers: 24%
Dragons: 17%
Sea Eagles: 10%
Rabbitohs: 0.3%
Eels: 0.01%
Roosters: 0.00%
Knights: 0.00%

Following the results of this weekend so far, we are now about 35% chance of making the top 8\. I just hope the Sharks do us a favour tonight!

 

[Juro]

I was thinking we would be about 35%, but the draw last night actually helped us a bit. Now the Titans' positive F/A won't come into play against us (unless either of us has a draw, of course).


Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 61%, Storm are 39%. Cowboys are 0.2%, Raiders are 0.1%, and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm join the Sharks on 100.00%, and 5 teams are 0.00%)
- 38% chance of finishing in top 8 (2 teams are 100.00% and the Eels and Rabbitohs are teams 3 and 4 to reach 0.00%)
- 0.7% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 100.00%, Roosters are 98%, and 6 teams are 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 90%, Roosters are 5%, and the Dragons are the 11th team to reach 0.00%)

We can still finish anywhere from 3rd to 14th.

After 21 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 37%. Yes, we are now above average! 2016 ranks as our 8th best (or 10th worst) season to this point. We overtook 2012 and 2014 this round but were passed by 2008\. This is our best chance since 2011.

Needless to say, a win next week would be massive for us!

 

[Juro]

For those interested in the top 8 cut-off, my model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 22 - 0.01% (down 0.03% since last week)
- 24 - 2% (down 2%)
- 25 - 1% (up 1%)
- 26 - 47% (down 6%)
- 27 - 12% (up 11%)
- 28 - 36% (down 4%)
- 29 - 1% (up 0.8%)
- 30 - 0.4% (down 0.6%)

Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.1% (down 0.2%)
- 25 - 0.1% (up 0.1%)
- 26 - 15% (down 4%)
- 27 - 9% (up 8%)
- 28 - 62% (down 5%)
- 29 - 8% (up 6%)
- 30 - 7% (down 5%)
- 31 - 0.05% (up 0.05%)
- 32 - 0.00% (down 0.06%)

 

[Kul]

The upswing is pleasing, if not for our fortunes this year, but as an indication that the young team is starting to mature.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

That's positive for one reason that since 2012 we've never been in contention at this point of the season. I still hate the slide of the yellow line in 2014 after Pottergate.

 

[pHyR3]

great stuff! always keen for the latest update after a win

 

[Kavi]

we still really need to get to 30 points with our for and against

 

[bigsiro]

A win this weekend would be huge for so many reasons

 

[GNR4LIFE]

A win this week would have us close to 50 wouldn't it? Especially if the Panthers get rolled.