The J(uro) Curve

[pHyR3]

Hey Juro, are you a gambler of any type, just wondering if your percentages equate to odds?

having just had a good look at your graph, and then reading your statistics, the tigers are approx 31% or one in 3 of making the 8, yet the odds right now have us at 10-1 to make the 8.

what do you reckon, are we way overs at the moment, especially after seeing the team picked this week and Parra sitting in nowhere land, and outside the top 3 teams, the rest are plodders.

obviously i dont know how juro does it

but id expect it to be a difference in the type of model he's using and the one that sportsbet uses. also, sportsbet would factor in demand/public perception

 

[Juro]

And the curve turns again…


Key results:
- 0.02% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 38%, Roosters join 3 teams on 0.00% despite beating us)
- 2% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 90%, Knights join the Eels on 0.00%)
- 22% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 99%, Knights are 0.3%)
- 33% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Sharks are 0.01%, Knights are 93%)
- 2% chance of wooden spoon (Raiders are the 4th team to reach 0.00%, Knights are 41%)

Hey Juro, are you a gambler of any type, just wondering if your percentages equate to odds?

having just had a good look at your graph, and then reading your statistics, the tigers are approx 31% or one in 3 of making the 8, yet the odds right now have us at 10-1 to make the 8.

what do you reckon, are we way overs at the moment, especially after seeing the team picked this week and Parra sitting in nowhere land, and outside the top 3 teams, the rest are plodders.

No, I'm not a gambler. I believe that unless there is a positive expected return, betting makes no sense. Given all the unknowns that lead to the final result (including the scourge of match fixing), I don't see it as a wise investment.

I would assume that the betting agencies would have far more sophisticated models than mine. I simply assume each team has a 50% chance of winning a game, with a distribution of possible F&A results. I have played around a bit with changing the odds depending on teams' position on the ladder and whether they are at home. However, this just complicated things and didn't lead to materially different results.

My model is designed to demonstrate objectively where we are at any point in the season, relative to other seasons or other teams. It gives likelihoods based on my simple assumptions.

**In short, I accept no responsibility for anyone using my results for other purposes!**

 

[Juro]

With our second win over Souths this year (so sweet!!!), the curve turns in the right direction again.


Key results:
- 0.02% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 47%, Sharks are 38%, 4 teams are 0.00%)
- 3% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 95%, Sharks are 94%, 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 99.9%, Sharks are 99.8%, Knights are 0.1%)
- 20% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 97%, Storm and Sharks are the first to reach 0.00%)
- 0.5% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 56%, Bulldogs are the 5th team to reach 0.00%)

 

[coolcat]

Thanks again.
Always liked this.

Do you have the stats for all teams.

 

[Juro]

Thanks again.
Always liked this.

Do you have the stats for all teams.

Thanks for the feedback. Yes, all teams from 2000 to 2016\. If you want to see any particular graphs, let me know and I'll see what I can do.

 

[tig_prmz]

Robbiegate 2014, i'd say 3 years of work "12,13 and 14 got ruined with that.

 

[WestsSupporter]

Well, we're doing better than 13 & 15\. That yellow line always gets me, how it fell apart so quickly.

 

[Masterton]

That 2014 graph breaks my heart.

 

[happy_tiger]

Does the bye have any effect on the Curve Juro ??

 

[Juro]

Does the bye have any effect on the Curve Juro ??

Not so much the bye, but the other results will have a small effect on us. Note for example the red line for 2015\. We had our byes in rounds 12 and 18\. In each of those, there was a marginal increase in our chances of making the 8\. It can, of course, go the other way too…

 

[Juro]

That 2014 graph breaks my heart.

There are far too many years where we were in the running with a few rounds to go (or less) and it all came to nothing. Check these heartbreakers out…


 

[Doc_Tiger]

Jeesus…..Am I reading right? Do we jump off a cliff at the end of each season?

 

[WestsSupporter]

Jeesus…..Am I reading right? Do we jump off a cliff at the end of each season?

haha its quite scary when you look at it in that way

i'd love to see a juro curve for Melbourne Storm under Craig Bellamy

 

[Tim Sheens]

That 2014 graph breaks my heart.

Yeah irks me too. Punching above their weight as a team when injuries progressively knocked them down a few pegs, yet still going okay, until a certain manager stuck his nose in and derailed our season.

Sadly he seems to still be destabilising our club.

 

[Russell]

By the look of those statistics - especially after rounds 19 or 20 to the end, it seems we should change our name.

"Wests Lemmings" would be appropriate.

Hopefully we can change that traditional curve this year.

 

[Juro]

Jeesus…..Am I reading right? Do we jump off a cliff at the end of each season?

Well, those were the worst of the horror cliff plummets. There have been the occassional steep ascents too, of course (2005, 2010, 2011), even if they seem very distant in the memory…

 

[Juro]

Jeesus…..Am I reading right? Do we jump off a cliff at the end of each season?

haha its quite scary when you look at it in that way

i'd love to see a juro curve for Melbourne Storm under Craig Bellamy

It is truly hard to imagine what it would be like to support a team like the Storm or Broncos. Would their fans get excited at all during the regular season, given that it is almost a given that they will be playing September football.

Here is the Storm graph for the years where Bellamy has been coach. Of course, the one year they failed was when they got pinged for rorting the cap. A few of the other years need an asterisk beside them too…


 

[snowleopard]

Depressing is the best word to describe difference between us and them

 

[Juro]

Despite the bye, other results played over the weekend have a bearing on our position. There was a slight drop in our chances of making the top 8, due to the Dragons, Warriors and Titans having wins. However, our chances of finishing in the bottom 4 dropped a bit too, thanks to losses to Souths, Manly and the Roosters.


Key results:
- 0.02% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 45%, Storm are 37%, 4 teams are 0.00%)
- 3% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 94%, Storm are 92%, 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 30% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks and Storm are 99.8%, Knights are 0.02%)
- 19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 96%, 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 0.5% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 57%, 5 teams are 0.00%)

After 15 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 41%. 2016 ranks as our 11th best (or 7th worst) season to this point. Mind you, one of those 6 seasons where we were lower at this point was 2005…

 

[Juro]

I'm having some IT problems today, so no graph just yet. The numbers are what's important though, right? Unfortunately, the numbers took a bit of a battering with the loss to the Storm.

Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 47%, Storm are 40%. We are out of the running, along with Souths and the 4 other teams to reach 0.00%)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 97%, Storm are 95%, 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 19% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 99.99%, Storm are 99.98%, Knights are first to reach 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 98%, Cowboys join the 2 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 64%, 5 teams are 0.00%)

After 16 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 38%. 2016 ranks as our 12th best (or 6th worst) season to this point. We have never come back from below 20% to make the finals.