The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
mike
Well-known member
@Kavi said:
Huh?
Cosimo_Zaretti
New member
@Kavi said:
It's more a matter of whether I can go, and whether It's going to mean a last minute flight to Townsville.
Juro
Well-known member
@Cosimo_Zaretti said:
Interesting question. Here's the numbers from last week. Obviously, with the loss on Saturday, numbers will change significantly, but we'll have to wait until tonight's game to see where everything stands after 23 rounds.
In all the scenarios where we were to make the finals (4,657 out of 10,000 simulations), we would play:
- home (finish 5 or 6) - 1,066
- vs Broncos - 443
- vs Titans - 161
- vs Panthers - 159
- vs Warriors - 141
- vs Cowboys - 104
- vs Bulldogs - 20
- vs Manly - 23
- vs Raiders - 15
- away (finish 3, 4, 7 or 8) - 3,591
- vs Broncos - 1,200
- vs Cowboys - 961
- vs Bulldogs - 735
- vs Panthers - 217
- vs Warriors - 198
- vs Raiders - 195
- vs Titans - 53
- vs Sharks - 13
- vs Storm - 17
- vs Manly - 2
So, out of all that, in Round 1 of the semis, the team would be:
- in Sydney - 20.33%
- outside Sydney - 26.24%
- Bali - 53.43%
Juro
Well-known member
Ouch, that loss hurt! But has it knocked us out, or just down?
Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 63%, Sharks are 37%. Raiders are 0.4%, and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (2 teams are already on 100.00%, while we, with the Titans and Warriors, join 6 teams on 0.00%)
- 29% chance of finishing in top 8 (4 teams are on 100.00%, while 4 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 100.00%, Roosters are 99.5%, while 10 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights have finally locked up the spoon for the year)
We can still finish anywhere from 5th to 12th.
After 23 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 40%. 2016 only ranks as our 9th best (or 7th worst) season to this point. As the curve shows, we jumped in front of 2008 this week, despite the loss.
Of the other teams still fighting for 4 remaining finals spots, here are the chances:
- Broncos - 99%
- Cowboys - 99%
- Panthers - 80%
- Titans - 56%
- Warriors - 33%
- Dragons - 2%
- Manly - 0.4%
Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 63%, Sharks are 37%. Raiders are 0.4%, and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (2 teams are already on 100.00%, while we, with the Titans and Warriors, join 6 teams on 0.00%)
- 29% chance of finishing in top 8 (4 teams are on 100.00%, while 4 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 100.00%, Roosters are 99.5%, while 10 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights have finally locked up the spoon for the year)
We can still finish anywhere from 5th to 12th.
After 23 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 40%. 2016 only ranks as our 9th best (or 7th worst) season to this point. As the curve shows, we jumped in front of 2008 this week, despite the loss.
Of the other teams still fighting for 4 remaining finals spots, here are the chances:
- Broncos - 99%
- Cowboys - 99%
- Panthers - 80%
- Titans - 56%
- Warriors - 33%
- Dragons - 2%
- Manly - 0.4%
Juro
Well-known member
For those interested in the top 8 cut-off, my model is showing the following chances of the 9th place team being on the following points:
- 24 - 0.00% (down 0.4%)
- 25 - 1% (no change)
- 26 - 29% (down 3%)
- 27 - 21% (up 3%)
- 28 - 47% (up 1%)
- 29 - 1% (down 1%)
- 30 - 0.1% (down 0.7%)
Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 25 - 0.00% (down 0.01%)
- 26 - 3% (down 2%)
- 27 - 8% (up 1%)
- 28 - 65% (no change)
- 29 - 15% (up 6%)
- 30 - 10% (down 4%)
- 31 - 0.00% (down 0.02%)
- 32 - 0.00% (down 0.06%)
So the main change from last week is a bit of narrowing of possibilities (as you'd expect as we come to the end of the season).
30 is still the target. Can we win 3 from 3?
- 24 - 0.00% (down 0.4%)
- 25 - 1% (no change)
- 26 - 29% (down 3%)
- 27 - 21% (up 3%)
- 28 - 47% (up 1%)
- 29 - 1% (down 1%)
- 30 - 0.1% (down 0.7%)
Similarly, it is showing the following chances of the 8th place team being on the following points:
- 25 - 0.00% (down 0.01%)
- 26 - 3% (down 2%)
- 27 - 8% (up 1%)
- 28 - 65% (no change)
- 29 - 15% (up 6%)
- 30 - 10% (down 4%)
- 31 - 0.00% (down 0.02%)
- 32 - 0.00% (down 0.06%)
So the main change from last week is a bit of narrowing of possibilities (as you'd expect as we come to the end of the season).
30 is still the target. Can we win 3 from 3?
Juro
Well-known member
Here's the updated numbers on possible opponents if we do make the finals.
In all the scenarios where we were to make the finals (2,940 out of 10,000 simulations), we would play:
**- home (finish 5 or 6) - 193**
- vs Titans - 100
- vs Broncos - 53
- vs Cowboys - 27
- vs Panthers - 12
- vs Warriors - 1
**- away (finish 7 or 8) - 2,747**
- vs Cowboys - 1,147
- vs Broncos - 948
- vs Bulldogs - 377
- vs Panthers - 121
- vs Titans - 82
- vs Raiders - 72
So, out of all that, in Round 1 of the semis, the team would be:
- in Sydney - 6.91%
- outside Sydney - 22.49%
- Bali - 70.60%
In all the scenarios where we were to make the finals (2,940 out of 10,000 simulations), we would play:
**- home (finish 5 or 6) - 193**
- vs Titans - 100
- vs Broncos - 53
- vs Cowboys - 27
- vs Panthers - 12
- vs Warriors - 1
**- away (finish 7 or 8) - 2,747**
- vs Cowboys - 1,147
- vs Broncos - 948
- vs Bulldogs - 377
- vs Panthers - 121
- vs Titans - 82
- vs Raiders - 72
So, out of all that, in Round 1 of the semis, the team would be:
- in Sydney - 6.91%
- outside Sydney - 22.49%
- Bali - 70.60%
hows the curve looking now?
id take a guess and put us at around 10% chance to make the 8\. would have to get back to our cowboys form for that to be even remotely possible
win 2/2 and titans lose both against the panthers and cowboys
9th is still a big improvement from where people thought we'd end up in preseason
id take a guess and put us at around 10% chance to make the 8\. would have to get back to our cowboys form for that to be even remotely possible
win 2/2 and titans lose both against the panthers and cowboys
9th is still a big improvement from where people thought we'd end up in preseason
Juro
Well-known member
@pHyR3 said:
Patience, my friend…
Juro
Well-known member
Well, this is it. Can we live to fight another week? As pHyR3 said above, we need to win our last 2 games, and have the Titans lose their last 2 games.
Given the simplistic assumptions from my model, where every team has a 50% chance of winning each game, that gives us a 1/16 or 6% chance of making the finals.
Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 88%, Sharks are 12% and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (Raiders are the 3rd team to reach 100.00%, Bulldogs are 53%, Cowboys are 35% and Broncos are 12%. Everyone else is 0.00%)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos and Cowboys join 4 teams on 100.00%, while the Dragons and Manly join 4 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels join the Knights on 100.00%, Roosters are 96%, while 10 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights have locked up the spoon for the year)
We can still finish anywhere from 8th to 12th.
After 24 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 31%. 2016 only ranks as our 9th best (or 7th worst) season to this point.
Of the other teams still fighting for 4 remaining finals spots, here are the chances:
- Panthers - 99.96%
- Titans - 88%
- Warriors - 6%
Given the simplistic assumptions from my model, where every team has a 50% chance of winning each game, that gives us a 1/16 or 6% chance of making the finals.
Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 88%, Sharks are 12% and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (Raiders are the 3rd team to reach 100.00%, Bulldogs are 53%, Cowboys are 35% and Broncos are 12%. Everyone else is 0.00%)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos and Cowboys join 4 teams on 100.00%, while the Dragons and Manly join 4 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels join the Knights on 100.00%, Roosters are 96%, while 10 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights have locked up the spoon for the year)
We can still finish anywhere from 8th to 12th.
After 24 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 31%. 2016 only ranks as our 9th best (or 7th worst) season to this point.
Of the other teams still fighting for 4 remaining finals spots, here are the chances:
- Panthers - 99.96%
- Titans - 88%
- Warriors - 6%
Masterton
Well-known member
So, we'll be 1 in 8 if Titans lose on Sats? 1 in 4 if we win also.
If our history shows anything, it's that we never pull out of a season-ending tail spin. But, let's hope.
If our history shows anything, it's that we never pull out of a season-ending tail spin. But, let's hope.
Juro
Well-known member
@wd in perth said:
Yes, a real thrill-ride. We'd need warnings about it. Don't ride if you have heart problems, high blood pressure, etc. May cause emotional scarring.
Juro
Well-known member
Who could believe that we have made it to the final hurdle, and are somehow still in the race. As with last week's result, the answer from my model is self-evident. Every team is assumed to have a 50% chance of winning each game, and we need 2 results to go our way. That gives us a 1/4 or 25% chance of making the finals.
Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 51%, Sharks are 49% and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (3 teams are on 100.00%. Cowboys are 63%, Broncos are 24%, and Bulldogs are 13%. Everyone else is 0.00%)
- 25% chance of finishing in top 8 (Titans are 75%. Panthers are the 7th team to reach 100.00%, while the Warriors are the 7th team to reach 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Roosters join the Eels and Knights on 100.00%. Souths are 56%, Manly are 32% and Dragons are 12%. Everyone else is on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights have locked up the spoon for the year)
We can still finish anywhere from 8th to 10th.
After 25 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 24.8%, so we are marginally above average. However, by this point we are normally either locked in or locked out. The only other years we were in contention in the final round were 2004 (62%) and 2012 (35%). In 2007 we were still in the running (29%) coming into the final round, but there were only 25 rounds that year…
Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 51%, Sharks are 49% and everyone else is 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in top 4 (3 teams are on 100.00%. Cowboys are 63%, Broncos are 24%, and Bulldogs are 13%. Everyone else is 0.00%)
- 25% chance of finishing in top 8 (Titans are 75%. Panthers are the 7th team to reach 100.00%, while the Warriors are the 7th team to reach 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Roosters join the Eels and Knights on 100.00%. Souths are 56%, Manly are 32% and Dragons are 12%. Everyone else is on 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights have locked up the spoon for the year)
We can still finish anywhere from 8th to 10th.
After 25 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 24.8%, so we are marginally above average. However, by this point we are normally either locked in or locked out. The only other years we were in contention in the final round were 2004 (62%) and 2012 (35%). In 2007 we were still in the running (29%) coming into the final round, but there were only 25 rounds that year…
Juro
Well-known member
@wd in perth said:
Maybe a dead cat bounce… (or should that be tiger?)
Juro
Well-known member
@Kavi said:
As the curve shows, the volatility from week to week increases as the season progresses. At the start of the season, a win or loss can only shift the curve by a few percent. Now we are at the pointy end of the season, so by next week we'll either be 100% in or 100% out.
