The J(uro) Curve

[AngryEmu]

Thanks again Juro, quick question I can't see any of the new graphs you have posted over the last couple of days. Is anyone else having this issue too?

 

[tigerbalm]

yea i cant see the graphs either.

 

[Juro]

Thanks for letting me know. I had to switch to a new site for loading my pictures. I used to used imgur, but this site is blocked at my work. I tried using google photos, and this worked at my end, but obviously not for you. I'll need to find a solution. Any suggestions?

 

[Juro]

Is this any better? I've played with the sharing options.


 

[AngryEmu]

Is this any better? I've played with the sharing options.


NO still no go.

 

[Russell]

Very disappointing this year - not getting any graphics except a basic no entry sign.

 

[Juro]

Sorry. I'll try to find another website to use.

 

[AngryEmu]

Sorry. I'll try to find another website to use.

I've not used any of them but this might help you choose https://www.lifewire.com/free-image-hosting-sites-3486329

 

[Juro]

While I work on the graph (can the J-curve exist without the curve?), I'll carry on with my 2017 review.

**Bottom 4**
The Knights were always heading in this direction all season, reaching 90% by Round 14\. We put up a little bit of a fight between Rounds 5 and 8, before shadowing the Knights for the rest of the season. The Titans and Warriors both resisted until Round 20, when they were both sitting at 35%. From there, both their seasons collapsed.


Teams were at their lowest chance of finishing in the bottom 4 as follows:
- Warriors: 14% (Round 16)
**- Wests Tigers: 19% (1)**
- Knights: 24% (2)
- Titans: 25% (season kickoff)

 

[Juro]

**Bottom 4 Escapes**
There were only 3 other teams who looked at all likely to fall to the bottom 4 throughout the year. The Panthers were in danger after winning only 2 of their first 9 games. The Rabbitohs and Bulldogs were also in the running before winning enough games to kick clear.


Teams were at their highest chance of finishing in the bottom 4 as follows:
- Rabbitohs: 67% (Round 21)
- Bulldogs: 66% (23)
- Panthers: 60% (9)
- Raiders: 39% (2)
- Sea Eagles: 39% (2)
- Eels: 38% (6)
- Sharks: 31% (1)
- Broncos: 29% (3)
- Cowboys, Dragons, Roosters and Storm: 25% (season kickoff)

 

[Juro]

**Wooden Spoon**
Again, it was a battle between us and the Kights for most of the the year. We were in serious danger in Round 16, when we reached 44%. The win over the Knights in Round 17 kicked us clear before picking up another few wins in later rounds.

As a sidenote, this was the second closest Wests Tigers have ever come to getting the spoon, after reaching 48% in Round 24 of 2015.


Teams were at their highest chance of finishing last as follows:
**- Wests Tigers: 44% (Round 16)**
- Titans: 22% (7)
- Panthers: 18% (9)
- Sea Eagles: 12% (2)
- Raiders: 12% (2)
- Warriors: 12% (4)
- Bulldogs: 11% (4)
- Rabbitohs: 11% (12)
- Eels: 10% (6)
- Sharks: 8% (1)
- Broncos: 8% (3)
- Cowboys, Dragons, Roosters and Storm: 6% (season kickoff)

 

[Tiger_Steve]

Thanks again Juro, quick question I can't see any of the new graphs you have posted over the last couple of days. Is anyone else having this issue too?

Yep - could see the first couple, now just the word ‘image’

 

[Tiger_Steve]

Is this any better? I've played with the sharing options.


I’m all good now. Thanks!

 

[Geo]

They were for me but now they are not… 😢 😢

 

[Juro]

And so 2017 is wrapped up, other than figuring out how to post the graphs… It was a hard season as a fan, with very little to cheer about. Amazing then to see us start so positive in 2018\. I just pray that we are not going to replicate the Dragons' performance from last year.


Key results after 4 rounds (not counting last night's win for the Raiders):
- 10% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 21%, Warriors are 19%, Eels are 1%)
- 37% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 56%, Warriors are 54%, Eels are 5%)
- 66% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 82%, Warriors are 80%, Eels are 18%)
- 13% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 57%, Raiders are 52%, Dragons are 5%)
- 2% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 22%, Raiders are 18%, Dragons are 1%)

At 66% chance of making the finals, this is our 3rd best start to the season (3 rounds) out of all our 19 years. The only better starts were in 2010 (66%) and 2002 (69% when there were only 14 teams). We were 3-1 in both those seasons too.

 

[coolcat]

Now i have to wait all week to see the first j curve of the year. Need to see the curve

 

[Russell]

Still no good for me Juro.

 

[happy_tiger]

**TOP 8**
Now looking at the teams to miss the finals, again there isn't a lot to talk about. Most teams that missed the 8 never looked likely. The Knights had reached 10% by Round 8 before reaching 100% in Round 18\. And, sad to say but Wests Tigers were the second team to reach 10% and stay there, doing this in Round 11.

The only real standout on the graph was the Dragons, who reached as high as 88% after Round 7 and only fell below 50% in Rounds 22, 24, 25 and 26\. That must have hurt…


Teams were at their highest as follows:
- Dragons: 88% (Round 7)
- Raiders: 64% (7)
- Rabbitohs: 58% (3)
**- Wests Tigers: 58% (1)**
- Bulldogs: 58% (7)
- Warriors: 57% (1)
- Knights: 51% (3)
- Titans: 50% (season kickoff)

When you type in the figures does your computer ask you "are you absolutely sure these figures true and correct ?? "

 

[Juro]

What is going on here? Wests Tigers have broken the J-Curve!

4 wins out of 5, all against last year's top 4\. The curve keeps going up, and my computer won't accept it!

Key results after 5 rounds:
- 11% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 25%, Warriors are 23%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 43% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 64%, Warriors are 61%, Eels are 3%)
- 73% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 88%, Warriors are 86%, Eels are 13%)
- 8% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 64%, Bulldogs are 45%, Dragons are 3%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 26%, Bulldogs are 13%, Dragons are 0.2%)

At 73% chance of making the finals, this is our 3rd best start to the season (5 rounds) out of all our 19 years. The only better starts were in 2000 (74%) and 2010 (73%). In 2000 we were 3-1-1 but there were only 14 teams. In 2010 we were 4-0-1 but had a better for and against at this stage.

 

[voice_of_reason]

If you have a way of getting the graphs to me I'm happy to host them on a server here.