The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
beachtiger
Well-known member
@ said:
It's always a Love / Hate relationship with your topic Juro, love the work you put in and the info but typically hate the inevitable end of season result!!
Thanks for doing this again for us mate, like many others I really appreciate it!!
Juro
Well-known member
Now that the regular season has come to a close, it's time to look back at how it all panned out. Not just for us, but for all teams. Let's start at the bottom…
**LAST PLACE**
Of course, the Eels were the most likely team to pick up the spoon, for most of the year. They were the most likely team for 21 rounds, only missing out on Rounds 1, 2, 22 and 23\. They were at their least likely (6%) before the season started.
But there were a few other teams that were still a chance, for almost all of the season. Below is a list of the most likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1\. Eels: 100% (Round 25)
2\. Cowboys: 49% (Round 23)
3\. Bulldogs: 24% (Round 15)
4\. Sea Eagles: 19% (Round 9)
5\. Raiders: 18% (Round 4)
6\. Titans: 17% (Round 10)
7\. Rabbitohs: 11% (Round 2)
8\. Sharks: 11% (Round 2)
9\. Broncos: 9% (Round 1)
10\. Roosters: 8% (Round 1)
11\. Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Storm, Warriors, **Wests Tigers: 6% (Season start)**
Below is a list of when each team reached 0%:
1\. Dragons: Round 9
2\. Panthers: Round 11
3\. Warriors: Round 12
4\. Rabbitohs, Rooster, Sharks: Round 14
7\. Storm: Round 15
8\. Broncos: Round 16
9\. Raiders: Round 18
**10\. Wests Tigers: Round 19**
11\. Titans: Round 23
12\. Bulldogs: Round 24
13\. Cowboys, Sea Eagles: Round 25
I will continue my analysis next week.
**LAST PLACE**
Of course, the Eels were the most likely team to pick up the spoon, for most of the year. They were the most likely team for 21 rounds, only missing out on Rounds 1, 2, 22 and 23\. They were at their least likely (6%) before the season started.
But there were a few other teams that were still a chance, for almost all of the season. Below is a list of the most likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1\. Eels: 100% (Round 25)
2\. Cowboys: 49% (Round 23)
3\. Bulldogs: 24% (Round 15)
4\. Sea Eagles: 19% (Round 9)
5\. Raiders: 18% (Round 4)
6\. Titans: 17% (Round 10)
7\. Rabbitohs: 11% (Round 2)
8\. Sharks: 11% (Round 2)
9\. Broncos: 9% (Round 1)
10\. Roosters: 8% (Round 1)
11\. Dragons, Knights, Panthers, Storm, Warriors, **Wests Tigers: 6% (Season start)**
Below is a list of when each team reached 0%:
1\. Dragons: Round 9
2\. Panthers: Round 11
3\. Warriors: Round 12
4\. Rabbitohs, Rooster, Sharks: Round 14
7\. Storm: Round 15
8\. Broncos: Round 16
9\. Raiders: Round 18
**10\. Wests Tigers: Round 19**
11\. Titans: Round 23
12\. Bulldogs: Round 24
13\. Cowboys, Sea Eagles: Round 25
I will continue my analysis next week.
Harvey
Well-known member
This should be the Juro cliff. Inevitably towards the end of the season there’s a massive plunge in our chances
Juro
Well-known member
@ said:
One year it will surprise us all. I just hope I haven't topped myself before that year comes along…
happy_tiger
Well-known member
I'm just surprised that the curve hasn't left us to be involved in Finals footy
JD Tiger
New member
@ said:
lol, or ended up playing for the Roosters
mike
Well-known member
@ said:
Not surprised. They probably have a $15M cap.
Juro
Well-known member
**BOTTOM 4**
The bottom 4 was pretty clearly set from early on in 2018\. Lets look first at the teams that avoided the bottom 4, and the Bulldogs were the only team to look in real danger before escaping towards the end of the year.
Below is a list of the most likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1\. Bulldogs: 90% (Round 19)
2\. Raiders: 52% (Round 4)
3\. Knights: 42% (Round 16)
4\. Sharks: 37% (Round 2)
5\. Rabbitohs: 37% (Round 2)
6\. Broncos: 32% (Round 1)
7\. Roosters: 31% (Round 1)
8\. Dragons, Panthers, Storm, Warriors, **Wests Tigers: 25% (Season start)**
Below is a list of when each team reached 0%:
1\. Dragons, Rabbitohs: Round 15
3\. Panthers: Round 16
4\. Roosters, Sharks, Storm, Warriors: Round 18
8\. Broncos: Round 19
**9\. Wests Tigers: Round 22**
10\. Raiders: Round 24
11\. Bulldogs, Knights: Round 25
The bottom 4 was pretty clearly set from early on in 2018\. Lets look first at the teams that avoided the bottom 4, and the Bulldogs were the only team to look in real danger before escaping towards the end of the year.
Below is a list of the most likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1\. Bulldogs: 90% (Round 19)
2\. Raiders: 52% (Round 4)
3\. Knights: 42% (Round 16)
4\. Sharks: 37% (Round 2)
5\. Rabbitohs: 37% (Round 2)
6\. Broncos: 32% (Round 1)
7\. Roosters: 31% (Round 1)
8\. Dragons, Panthers, Storm, Warriors, **Wests Tigers: 25% (Season start)**
Below is a list of when each team reached 0%:
1\. Dragons, Rabbitohs: Round 15
3\. Panthers: Round 16
4\. Roosters, Sharks, Storm, Warriors: Round 18
8\. Broncos: Round 19
**9\. Wests Tigers: Round 22**
10\. Raiders: Round 24
11\. Bulldogs, Knights: Round 25
Juro
Well-known member
Now looking at the teams that finally made the bottom 4, it is little surprise that there was little surprise. All of the bottom 4 were likely all the way through the season.
Of the bottom 4, they were at their least likely as follows:
1\. Eels: 25% (Season start)
2\. Sea Eagles: 20% (Round 4)
3\. Cowboys: 19% (Round 1)
4\. Titans: 18% (Round 5)
The only interesting thing was that it took so long to lock in the exact teams. The Eels only reached 100% in Round 24, and the other 3 reached it in Round 25.
Of the bottom 4, they were at their least likely as follows:
1\. Eels: 25% (Season start)
2\. Sea Eagles: 20% (Round 4)
3\. Cowboys: 19% (Round 1)
4\. Titans: 18% (Round 5)
The only interesting thing was that it took so long to lock in the exact teams. The Eels only reached 100% in Round 24, and the other 3 reached it in Round 25.
mike
Well-known member
@ said:
Thats because the Bulldogs and Necastle hovered around the bottom four. It could have been any of those 6 in the bottom four. It wasn’t until round 25 that the Bulldogs and Newcastle pulled themselves above the last four, sealing their fate.
Juro
Well-known member
@ said:
Those bottom 6 teams were all jostling, trying to escape the spoon.
- Eels won 3 of their last 7 games
- Sea Eagles won 2 of their last 5 games
- Cowboys won 4 of their last 6 games
- Titans won 2 of their last 6 games
- Bulldogs won 4 of their last 6 games
From week to week, the teams shifted positions on the ladder, with no team falling too far behind or getting too far ahead.
Juro
Well-known member
**TOP 8**
The top 8 was also clearly set from early on in 2018\. The last round any team that made the top 8 fell below 50% was in Round 10\. There were no last minute charges for the fairytale finish this year.
Lets look first at the teams that made the top 8, so I can ignore our massive slide for just a little bit longer.
Below is a list of the least likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1\. Dragons, Panthers, Warriors: 50% (Season start)
4\. Storm: 44% (Round 5)
5\. Roosters: 43% (Round 1)
6\. Broncos: 38% (Round 7)
7\. Rabbitohs: 35% (Round 2)
8\. Sharks: 33% (Round 6)
Below is a list of when each team reached 100%:
1\. Storm: Round 20
2\. Rabbitohs, Roosters: Round 21
4\. Dragons, Panthers, Sharks: Round 23
7\. Broncos, Warriors: Round 24
The top 8 was also clearly set from early on in 2018\. The last round any team that made the top 8 fell below 50% was in Round 10\. There were no last minute charges for the fairytale finish this year.
Lets look first at the teams that made the top 8, so I can ignore our massive slide for just a little bit longer.
Below is a list of the least likely each team was during the season, and the round it occurred in:
1\. Dragons, Panthers, Warriors: 50% (Season start)
4\. Storm: 44% (Round 5)
5\. Roosters: 43% (Round 1)
6\. Broncos: 38% (Round 7)
7\. Rabbitohs: 35% (Round 2)
8\. Sharks: 33% (Round 6)
Below is a list of when each team reached 100%:
1\. Storm: Round 20
2\. Rabbitohs, Roosters: Round 21
4\. Dragons, Panthers, Sharks: Round 23
7\. Broncos, Warriors: Round 24
Juro
Well-known member
@coolcat said:
Yes. I like to wait until we are a month or so into the comp so we can actually see something though. I also need to set up my model for the new year.
Just realised I never finished my summary from last year too. Got too hectic at work in October…
God the 2018 series was depressing. went from 81% chance to 0% chance of making the 8 with 2 rounds remaining.
Ugh.
Ugh.
Juro
Well-known member
Welcome back for another ride of the curve. And so far this year, it is looking very familiar. The rollercoaster goes up (at least a bit) but will it do the big plunge this time???
It is a very strange table at the moment, with 3 teams coming equal first and 7 teams coming equal last. This is really testing my model...
Key numbers after 7 rounds:
* 5% chance of minor premiership
– Roosters are 23%
– Storm are 22%
– Rabbitohs are 20%
– The bunch coming last are all about 0.5%
* 26% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters are 63%, Storm are 62%, Rabbitohs are 61%, Bulldogs are 5%)
* 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (Roosters and Storm are 88%, Rabbitohs are 87%, Bulldogs are 22%)
* 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Bulldogs are 47%, Panthers are 45%, Roosters are 2%)
* 2% chance of wooden spoon
– Bulldogs are 14%
– Cowboys, Panthers, Titans are 13%
– Knights are 12%
– Broncos and Warriors are 11%
– Roosters and Storm are 0.2%
It is a very strange table at the moment, with 3 teams coming equal first and 7 teams coming equal last. This is really testing my model...
Key numbers after 7 rounds:
* 5% chance of minor premiership
– Roosters are 23%
– Storm are 22%
– Rabbitohs are 20%
– The bunch coming last are all about 0.5%
* 26% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters are 63%, Storm are 62%, Rabbitohs are 61%, Bulldogs are 5%)
* 59% chance of finishing in top 8 (Roosters and Storm are 88%, Rabbitohs are 87%, Bulldogs are 22%)
* 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Bulldogs are 47%, Panthers are 45%, Roosters are 2%)
* 2% chance of wooden spoon
– Bulldogs are 14%
– Cowboys, Panthers, Titans are 13%
– Knights are 12%
– Broncos and Warriors are 11%
– Roosters and Storm are 0.2%
mike
Well-known member
Woohoo. Love the J(uro) Curve 😎😎😎😎
hobbo1
Well-known member
Top 8 would be epic ...
Panthers to spoon would be epic !
Panthers to spoon would be epic !
