The J(uro) Curve

[Geo]

Everyone blames Luke Brooks ..I blame the curve..have't made the finals in it's existence ...

 

[mike]

Everyone blames Luke Brooks ..I blame the curve..have't made the finals in it's existence ...

You’ll give @Juro a complex.

 

[NT_Tiger]

Thanks Juro. Only one stat missing. Odds of coming 9th.

 

[mike]

Thanks Juro. Only one stat missing. Odds of coming 9th.

Don’t need a curve for that:- 100% guaranteed

 

[Juro]

Everyone blames Luke Brooks ..I blame the curve..have't made the finals in it's existence ...

You’ll give @Juro a complex.

Like I don't already have one...

 

[Juro]

Despite us currently sitting in the top 8, our chances of making the finals have slipped to 43%. Remember, we are only in front of 10th on for and against.


Key numbers with 11 rounds to go:

* 1% chance of minor premiership (-2% from last round)
– Eels are 37% (+5%)
– Panthers are 26% (+5%)
– Storm are 17% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are the only team at 0.00%

* 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (-8%)
– Eels are 83% (+8%)
– Panthers are 77% (+10%)
– Storm are 65% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 0.2% (-0.1%)

* 43% chance of finishing in top 8 (-9%)
– Eels are 98% (+3%)
– Panthers are 96% (+4%)
– Storm are 92% (+6%)
– Roosters are 86% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 3% (-2%)

* 19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 83% (+8%)
– Titans are 48% (-11%)
– Broncos are 48% (-11%)
– Warriors are 47% (+9%)
– Eels are 0.2% (-0.4%)

* 2% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 43% (+12%)
– Titans are 11% (-6%)
– Broncos are 10% (-8%)
– Warriors are 10% (+9%)
– Panthers are 0.03% (-0.03%)
– Eels are the only team at 0.00%

 

[Juro]

Wins are so important, and big wins give us even more of a chance. We're now up to 56%, some 21% above our average chance with 10 rounds to go. The last time we were in such good shape at this stage of the season was in 2014.


Key numbers with 10 rounds to go:

* 1% chance of minor premiership (+0.5% from last round)
– Panthers are 36% (+10%)
– Eels are 25% (-13%)
– Storm are 23% (+6%)
– Knights are 6% (+1%)
– Roosters are 4% (-4%)
– Raiders are 3% (+1%)
– Rabbitohs are 1% (-2%)
– Sharks are 1% (-)
– Sea Eagles are 1% (-)
– Dragons are 0.1% (-)
– Broncos are 0.03% (-0.07%)
– Warriors are 0.03% (-0.08%)
– Titans are 0.02% (-0.10%)
– Cowboys join the Bulldogs at 0.00%

* 16% chance of finishing in top 4 (+5%)
– Panthers are 84% (+8%)
– Eels are 75% (-8%)
– Storm are 74% (+9%)
– Knights are 41% (+8%)
– Roosters are 34% (-14%)
– Raiders are 26% (+6%)
– Rabbitohs are 16% (-12%)
– Sharks are 14% (+4%)
– Sea Eagles are 11% (+3%)
– Dragons are 5% (+1%)
– Broncos are 1% (-2%)
– Warriors are 1% (-2%)
– Titans are 1% (-2%)
– Bulldogs are 0.01% (-0.2%)

* 56% chance of finishing in top 8 (+13%)
– Panthers are 98% (+2%)
– Eels are 96% (-2%)
– Storm are 96% (+4%)
– Roosters are 79% (-7%)
– Raiders are 70% (+6%)
– Sharks are 53% (+11%)
– Rabbitohs are 50% (-13%)
– Sea Eagles are 48% (+8%)
– Dragons are 30% (+6%)
– Broncos are 10% (-9%)
– Warriors are 10% (-9%)
– Titans are 9% (-9%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (-2%)

* 9% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-10%)
– Bulldogs are 88% (+11%)
– Titans are 59% (+11%)
– Broncos are 59% (+11%)
– Warriors are 58% (+11%)
– Cowboys are 51% (+8%)
– Dragons are 25% (-13%)
– Rabbitohs are 18% (+4%)
– Sea Eagles are 13% (-10%)
– Sharks are 11% (-11%)
– Raiders are 4% (-3%)
– Knights are 3% (-4%)
– Roosters are 2% (-0.5%)
– Eels are 0.1% (-0.04%)
– Storm are 0.1% (-0.7%)
– Panthers are 0.04% (-0.3%)

* 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
– Bulldogs are 47% (+3%)
– Titans are 14% (+3%)
– Broncos are 13% (+3%)
– Warriors are 12% (+2%)
– Cowboys are 9% (+1%)
– Warriors are 12% (+2%)
– Dragons are 2% (-5%)
– Rabbitohs are 1% (+0.1%)
– Sea Eagles are 1% (-2%)
– Sharks are 1% (-2%)
– Raiders are 0.2% (-0.4%)
– Roosters are 0.1% (-0.1%)
– Knights are 0.04% (-0.3%)
– Panthers and Storm join the Eels at 0.00%

 

[happy_tiger]

Question Juro .....do you have the draw for the season entered in your stats when you get the Top 8 chances %

 

[Juro]

Question Juro .....do you have the draw for the season entered in your stats when you get the Top 8 chances %

Yes. My model generates results for all remaining games in the season, so it does take into account who plays whom.

 

[TheDaBoss]

Question Juro .....do you have the draw for the season entered in your stats when you get the Top 8 chances %

Yes. My model generates results for all remaining games in the season, so it does take into account who plays whom.

im guessing a win over a Powerhouse team like the Eels will sky rocket the curve?

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

For the curve this Parra game is a must win we need to beat one of these type of sides

 

[Juro]

Question Juro .....do you have the draw for the season entered in your stats when you get the Top 8 chances %

Yes. My model generates results for all remaining games in the season, so it does take into account who plays whom.

im guessing a win over a Powerhouse team like the Eels will sky rocket the curve?

In the model a win over Parra would help just a little more than a win over the Bulldogs. Both are worth 2 points, but also are 2 points the other team doesn't get. The really important ones will be against the other teams around us like the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Sea Eagles.

 

[Juro]

Here we are again. Nine rounds to go, sitting in 9th place. We’re now at 46%, which is still 13% above our average chance with 9 rounds to go. The last time we were in such good shape at this stage of the season was in 2014 (50%).


Key numbers with 9 rounds to go:

* 0.2% chance of minor premiership (-1% from last round)
– Panthers are 37% (+2%)
– Storm are 27% (+4%)
– Eels are 25% (-)
– Roosters are 5% (-)
– Raiders are 3% (-)
– Knights are 2% (-4%)
– Sharks are 1% (-)
– Sea Eagles are 1% (-)
– Rabbitohs are 0.1% (-1%)
– Dragons are 0.02% (-0.1%)
– Broncos, Titans and Warriors join the Bulldogs and Cowboys at 0.00%

* 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (-9%)
– Panthers are 89% (+4%)
– Storm are 83% (+9%)
– Eels are 82% (+8%)
– Roosters are 43% (+9%)
– Raiders are 31% (+6%)
– Knights are 25% (-16%)
– Sharks are 16% (+3%)
– Sea Eagles are 13% (+2%)
– Rabbitohs are 7% (-10%)
– Dragons are 2% (-3%)
– Warriors are 0.3% (-1%)
– Broncos are 0.1% (-1%)
– Titans are 0.1% (-1%)
– Bulldogs are 0.02% (+0.01%)

* 46% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
– Panthers are 99% (+1%)
– Storm are 99% (+3%)
– Eels are 99% (+3%)
– Roosters are 88% (+9%)
– Raiders are 82% (+12%)
– Knights are 76% (-7%)
– Sharks are 66% (+13%)
– Sea Eagles are 61% (+13%)
– Rabbitohs are 38% (-13%)
– Dragons are 20% (-9%)
– Cowboys are 7% (-5%)
– Warriors are 6% (-4%)
– Titans are 6% (-4%)
– Broncos are 5% (-4%)
– Bulldogs are 2% (+1%)

* 10% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 79% (-10%)
– Broncos are 66% (+7%)
– Titans are 64% (+5%)
– Warriors are 62% (+4%)
– Cowboys are 55% (+4%)
– Dragons are 29% (+4%)
– Rabbitohs are 21% (+3%)
– Sea Eagles are 6% (-7%)
– Sharks are 4% (-6%)
– Knights are 3% (-)
– Raiders are 1% (-3%)
– Roosters are 0.5% (-2%)
– Eels, Storm and Panthers have all reached 0.00%

* 0.7% chance of wooden spoon (+0.3%)
– Bulldogs are 30% (-17%)
– Broncos are 20% (+6%)
– Titans are 18% (+3%)
– Warriors are 14% (+3%)
– Cowboys are 13% (+4%)
– Dragons are 3% (+1%)
– Rabbitohs are 2% (+0.4%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.3% (-0.6%)
– Sharks are 0.09% (-0.6%)
– Knights are 0.09% (+0.05%)
– Raiders are 0.07% (-0.2%)
– Roosters are the 4th team to reach 0.00%

It's interesting that we now have more chance of making the finals than all the Queensland teams combined (18%).

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

what do we need to get in guaranteed 22 points or 20 with a good for and against ?

 

[weststigers]

what do we need to get in guaranteed 22 points or 20 with a good for and against ?

Provided our F/A stays in tact, we'd be guaranteed to get in on 22 I reckon.

Either way, time to start cheering on the upsets against:

Knights
Sharks
Manly
Souths

 

[Juro]

what do we need to get in guaranteed 22 points or 20 with a good for and against ?

It is possible (although incredibly unlikely) that we could miss out on F/A with a score of 26.

It is also possible that we could make it with a score of 14.

Looking at likely results, I would say we probably need 22 and even then might need some luck to get in.

 

[Tigerbuck63]

Here we are again. Nine rounds to go, sitting in 9th place. We’re now at 46%, which is still 13% above our average chance with 9 rounds to go. The last time we were in such good shape at this stage of the season was in 2014 (50%).


Key numbers with 9 rounds to go:

* 0.2% chance of minor premiership (-1% from last round)
– Panthers are 37% (+2%)
– Storm are 27% (+4%)
– Eels are 25% (-)
– Roosters are 5% (-)
– Raiders are 3% (-)
– Knights are 2% (-4%)
– Sharks are 1% (-)
– Sea Eagles are 1% (-)
– Rabbitohs are 0.1% (-1%)
– Dragons are 0.02% (-0.1%)
– Broncos, Titans and Warriors join the Bulldogs and Cowboys at 0.00%

* 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (-9%)
– Panthers are 89% (+4%)
– Storm are 83% (+9%)
– Eels are 82% (+8%)
– Roosters are 43% (+9%)
– Raiders are 31% (+6%)
– Knights are 25% (-16%)
– Sharks are 16% (+3%)
– Sea Eagles are 13% (+2%)
– Rabbitohs are 7% (-10%)
– Dragons are 2% (-3%)
– Warriors are 0.3% (-1%)
– Broncos are 0.1% (-1%)
– Titans are 0.1% (-1%)
– Bulldogs are 0.02% (+0.01%)

* 46% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
– Panthers are 99% (+1%)
– Storm are 99% (+3%)
– Eels are 99% (+3%)
– Roosters are 88% (+9%)
– Raiders are 82% (+12%)
– Knights are 76% (-7%)
– Sharks are 66% (+13%)
– Sea Eagles are 61% (+13%)
– Rabbitohs are 38% (-13%)
– Dragons are 20% (-9%)
– Cowboys are 7% (-5%)
– Warriors are 6% (-4%)
– Titans are 6% (-4%)
– Broncos are 5% (-4%)
– Bulldogs are 2% (+1%)

* 10% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 79% (-10%)
– Broncos are 66% (+7%)
– Titans are 64% (+5%)
– Warriors are 62% (+4%)
– Cowboys are 55% (+4%)
– Dragons are 29% (+4%)
– Rabbitohs are 21% (+3%)
– Sea Eagles are 6% (-7%)
– Sharks are 4% (-6%)
– Knights are 3% (-)
– Raiders are 1% (-3%)
– Roosters are 0.5% (-2%)
– Eels, Storm and Panthers have all reached 0.00%

* 0.7% chance of wooden spoon (+0.3%)
– Bulldogs are 30% (-17%)
– Broncos are 20% (+6%)
– Titans are 18% (+3%)
– Warriors are 14% (+3%)
– Cowboys are 13% (+4%)
– Dragons are 3% (+1%)
– Rabbitohs are 2% (+0.4%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.3% (-0.6%)
– Sharks are 0.09% (-0.6%)
– Knights are 0.09% (+0.05%)
– Raiders are 0.07% (-0.2%)
– Roosters are the 4th team to reach 0.00%

It's interesting that we now have more chance of making the finals than all the Queensland teams combined (18%).

 

[Tigerbuck63]

Despite us currently sitting in the top 8, our chances of making the finals have slipped to 43%. Remember, we are only in front of 10th on for and against.


Key numbers with 11 rounds to go:

* 1% chance of minor premiership (-2% from last round)
– Eels are 37% (+5%)
– Panthers are 26% (+5%)
– Storm are 17% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are the only team at 0.00%

* 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (-8%)
– Eels are 83% (+8%)
– Panthers are 77% (+10%)
– Storm are 65% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 0.2% (-0.1%)

* 43% chance of finishing in top 8 (-9%)
– Eels are 98% (+3%)
– Panthers are 96% (+4%)
– Storm are 92% (+6%)
– Roosters are 86% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 3% (-2%)

* 19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 83% (+8%)
– Titans are 48% (-11%)
– Broncos are 48% (-11%)
– Warriors are 47% (+9%)
– Eels are 0.2% (-0.4%)

* 2% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 43% (+12%)
– Titans are 11% (-6%)
– Broncos are 10% (-8%)
– Warriors are 10% (+9%)
– Panthers are 0.03% (-0.03%)
– Eels are the only team at 0.00%

Great analysis how often are you updating this information?
From my predictions we can make the 8 this season but any losses against the bottom sides cruel our chances.

Think will need 20 points this season to make the 8 on a good for/against and i have us sitting in the 8 with 2 games to go and there against the Storm/Eels.

Wins required against Warriors/Knights/Bulldogs/Rabbits/Manly will make 20 points. Might sound pessimistic that Titans game might still come back to bite us.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

we need sharks to get beat a few times last week against saints hurt. Sharks have a very good run home

 

[Juro]

Despite us currently sitting in the top 8, our chances of making the finals have slipped to 43%. Remember, we are only in front of 10th on for and against.


Key numbers with 11 rounds to go:

* 1% chance of minor premiership (-2% from last round)
– Eels are 37% (+5%)
– Panthers are 26% (+5%)
– Storm are 17% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are the only team at 0.00%

* 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (-8%)
– Eels are 83% (+8%)
– Panthers are 77% (+10%)
– Storm are 65% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 0.2% (-0.1%)

* 43% chance of finishing in top 8 (-9%)
– Eels are 98% (+3%)
– Panthers are 96% (+4%)
– Storm are 92% (+6%)
– Roosters are 86% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are 3% (-2%)

* 19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
– Bulldogs are 83% (+8%)
– Titans are 48% (-11%)
– Broncos are 48% (-11%)
– Warriors are 47% (+9%)
– Eels are 0.2% (-0.4%)

* 2% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Bulldogs are 43% (+12%)
– Titans are 11% (-6%)
– Broncos are 10% (-8%)
– Warriors are 10% (+9%)
– Panthers are 0.03% (-0.03%)
– Eels are the only team at 0.00%


Great analysis how often are you updating this information?
From my predictions we can make the 8 this season but any losses against the bottom sides cruel our chances.

Think will need 20 points this season to make the 8 on a good for/against and i have us sitting in the 8 with 2 games to go and there against the Storm/Eels.

Wins required against Warriors/Knights/Bulldogs/Rabbits/Manly will make 20 points. Might sound pessimistic that Titans game might still come back to bite us.

I like to play with the ladder predictor on the NRL website. At the moment, if all games are won by the higher team on the ladder, we'll finish 10th on 16 points.

We need to beat the teams around us, the Knights (Rd 13), Manly (Rd 17) and Rabbitohs (Rd 18), plus all the teams below us and that would only get us to 20 points. And if all the other games went with the higher team, we would finish 9th, 1 point behind the Knights on 21.

So we're going to need to play well, plus have a bit of luck fall our way.

It can happen. Please let it happen!