Twal’s First Try

I had a stats lecturer who said the statistical probability of something occurring for the first time could be guessed by multiplying the number of attempts so far by 3.

I'm a moderate nerd, unqualified to say if this has any credence, but I like the idea of Twally scoring in game 297.
 
It's his 100th game this weekend. The big fella will bust through from 30 out, step Dufty and plant it down under the sticks.
 
He's been running harder the last month, harder than ever before. Perhaps not having a try is starting to grind away at him.

What if he scores the first one then becomes a try scoring machine? I would like to live in that timeline.
 
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