GNR4LIFE
Well-known member
@ricksen said:
Theres a couple. Sam McKendry and Nigel Plum are ones i can think of off the top of my head.
Worst Season in WT History
- Thread starter macman
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Theres a couple. Sam McKendry and Nigel Plum are ones i can think of off the top of my head.
@ricksen said:
Penrith have been savaged by injuries too though.
jirskyr
Well-known member
@goldcoast tiger said:
And personal impressions are more reliable?
At least with statistics you have to provide the data for other people to scrutinise, even if, yes, it is possible to try and put forward different arguments with the same set of data. Hopefully the data is convincing enough, or big enough, to show strong evidence.
You ever notice how they put up the match stats at half and full-time? How they keep stats records on the premiership ladder? How they use stats to drive fantasy football? You ever notice how David Middleton has a full-time job doing NRL stats and owns his own company to this effect? You ever watch cricket?
Data and data analysis are how random things like science and government and finance work.
I'll let it go now.
jirskyr
Well-known member
@ricksen said:
Of course it's relevant. If these coaches walked into top squads, why did those same squads do so poorly the year prior?
You are suggesting Robinson had such a mad team that he just had to appear, to transform them from a 13th-placed side into a minor premiership side?
If you are right and the rosters were stacked, the question then becomes how did the coaches take such an under-performing roster and make it a winning one?
What do you reckon, the history of Cleary at Penrith is a good predictor for us?
goldcoast_tiger
New member
@jirskyr said:
I'm happy to let it go, but I will point out one last thing,
Statistics , provided they are correct, are useful in hundreds of instances, but in some instances they don't give a true picture ,and it depends on what you want to find out.
In a lot of cases that involve performances , ( such as the quality of our defence, yes , personal impressions can be more useful , and more accurate .
Take , for example, in one of our games where the penalties are 10 each, just going on that statistic , even blind Freddy would have to concede that the Ref had done his job well and had been completely unbiased.
But add to that , the stat , that all of the penalties that we received , were down near our goal line.on the first or second tackle, And that all ofthe penalties that the other team received were were in OUR half, on the 4th or 5th tackle, and there were 4 sets of back to back penalties in their total. All of a sudden you have a completely different view of the fairness of the game.
If anyone with some knowledge of the game was watching that game , YES their impression of the game would be way More valuable and accurate than someone writing a report saying that the penalties were 10 each.
You CAN compare the number of tries we had scored against us last year , to the number of tries that we have scored this year , and be accurate
But, you can't just use that , to determine whether our defence was better last year than it is this year, without taking into account all the variables , and then claim to be accurate, and , as in the case of the penalties example , Tries can be scored against a team that came from great attacking play and ARE'NT a result of bad football,
They can also be handed out on a platter though, as we seem to do on a regular basis.
I'm happy to go with what I see for myself as far as performances go , but stats , used on their own, have to be accurate to be useful, and any conclusion reached can be changed by simply adding variables of subtracting variables , to get the conclusion wanted.
@jirskyr said:
No - they (Maguire, Bennett & Robinson) are clearly very good coaches. You don't take teams to GFs if you're a mug, regardless of the quality of your players.
Fair to say that both Souths and St George-Illawarra were underachieving before these guys got there and took them to the next level. The game had passed by John Lang, and Nathan Brown had probably been there too long.
Easts were terrible in 2012, but were famously able to rebuild over the period of 6 mths due to some shrewd cap management and recruitment (and $$$$), so Robinson walked into a pretty spectacular squad and has obviously done brilliantly.
My point was the comparisons are irrelevant to judging JT and WT in 2015, as the circumstances are incredibly different.
The Penrith comparison may be more apt as Cleary had to go through a bit of a rebuild, as we are currently doing. Probably fair to do so more comprehensively in a year or two, once JT's 'structure' comes to fruition (or not, as I fear).
jirskyr
Well-known member
@goldcoast tiger said:
I had this big response growing in my head, but it is pointless, you aren't on my wavelength.
Sometimes when I put up statistical arguments, some people say "all that matters is whether you win or lose dude, don't worry about the other stats". Now you are telling me "no it's not whether you win or lose, because that is based on so many variables… what is important is your impression of the wins and the losses".
Apparently, in your world, points conceded (alone) is not an accurate reflection of defence. You have also take into account your impressions of how the defence was doing. In one game, sure, that counts for a lot, but when you start talking about big numbers - a whole season, or many seasons, then impressions get all washed up and mixed together.
But assuming I agree with you, how exactly does one record the _impressions_? How do you grade the impressions, how do you say if one game was better than another game, if the stats alone won't do it for you? How do you eliminate the bias of recent or disjointed memory?
I see no improvement since last year really, a coach that has on many occasions poked the knife into our performances prior to his taking charge and far less injuries this season. Overall, this year is worse than last year and last year was pretty disastrous. Next year we'll be going over the same old stories. We need centres, wingers, back rowers, Farah is slowing down, the halves aren't living up to the hype….and on and on.
...oh, and we'll come last again. Still, I'll cheer them on from the living room and tell my kids how great 05 was. And how I had to wait 35 years to see them win a comp.
...oh, and we'll come last again. Still, I'll cheer them on from the living room and tell my kids how great 05 was. And how I had to wait 35 years to see them win a comp.
goldcoast_tiger
New member
Jirskyr, so sorry that I'm not on your wavelength , but I have given you two extremely simple examples where the statistics alone would mean nothing
The refs case is a no brainer where the penalties themselves meant nothing , without knowing where and when they were given , but anyone who had more than a passing interest in the game would see that it was more likely to be biased one way. Stats alone not working there
The example of defence was as simple as it could get.
Having tries scored against you that were well thought out , and well executed by a good team is sometimes something that NO defence can defend against.
However when a team has two or three tries scored against them, from five metres out , without a hand being laid on the scorer, more often than not, that's just the result of crap defence.
YES, There is a difference!!!!!
In both games, the score is three tries against us , and you seem to think that ALLTries are equal.
They are , on the scoreboard.
But when comparing two different teams , or the one team over two different seasons , that isn't necessarily the case. Quite simple really.
As for how does anyone record their impressions, It's called a Brain!!!!!!!
While not as effective as a number cruncher in a lot of cases , it's still better at looking behind raw stats.
From reading different posts on here, there are some People , who are very good at reading games and getting a good feel as to how games have evolved, I would take their opinions on performances over raw stats any day.
If you have ever been involved in coaching at Any level, you would not be so quick to rubbish the fact that in some instances stats can be of none ,or limited use.
And just one last point , that I hope was just an oversight on your part.
"Points conceeded , alone," are in no possible way, an accurate reflection of defence of any team , as they contain penalty goals and field goals, both of which have no bearing on defence
I hope it was an oversight, otherwise your numbers may be WAY out of whack
The refs case is a no brainer where the penalties themselves meant nothing , without knowing where and when they were given , but anyone who had more than a passing interest in the game would see that it was more likely to be biased one way. Stats alone not working there
The example of defence was as simple as it could get.
Having tries scored against you that were well thought out , and well executed by a good team is sometimes something that NO defence can defend against.
However when a team has two or three tries scored against them, from five metres out , without a hand being laid on the scorer, more often than not, that's just the result of crap defence.
YES, There is a difference!!!!!
In both games, the score is three tries against us , and you seem to think that ALLTries are equal.
They are , on the scoreboard.
But when comparing two different teams , or the one team over two different seasons , that isn't necessarily the case. Quite simple really.
As for how does anyone record their impressions, It's called a Brain!!!!!!!
While not as effective as a number cruncher in a lot of cases , it's still better at looking behind raw stats.
From reading different posts on here, there are some People , who are very good at reading games and getting a good feel as to how games have evolved, I would take their opinions on performances over raw stats any day.
If you have ever been involved in coaching at Any level, you would not be so quick to rubbish the fact that in some instances stats can be of none ,or limited use.
And just one last point , that I hope was just an oversight on your part.
"Points conceeded , alone," are in no possible way, an accurate reflection of defence of any team , as they contain penalty goals and field goals, both of which have no bearing on defence
I hope it was an oversight, otherwise your numbers may be WAY out of whack
happy_tiger
Well-known member
I think the comment " money changes everything" is so true
The clubs that have money and backing do well
The ones that don't struggle
There are probably two sides who are outside those guidelines at the moment
Canberra and Cronulla and they are really only fringe top 8 sides
The clubs that have money and backing do well
The ones that don't struggle
There are probably two sides who are outside those guidelines at the moment
Canberra and Cronulla and they are really only fringe top 8 sides
foreveratiger
New member
@happy tiger said:
Yeah no doubt happy, it's like comparing Chelsea and AFC Bournemouth…....world's apart.
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