Racing tips, talk etc
- Thread starter king_sirro
- Start date
Anyone else get on joel caines tip in the last at the farm yesterday?
Fuadee 40/1
Had it e/w and just missed a place multi with it in the previous at 30/1
Fuadee 40/1
Had it e/w and just missed a place multi with it in the previous at 30/1
Here's my tip: the fastest horse will win.
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
richard callander tipped it too on sky
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
cox plate
I like Birdman
Sir Delius (if it runs)
caulfied cup
zarahnn
I like Birdman
Sir Delius (if it runs)
caulfied cup
zarahnn
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
the way this negative talk about Ka Ying Rising re the track gallop and the potential weather, the bookies might blow the price out a bit if we are lucky.
If the rain absolutely tumbled down I think Tempted could go close but it would have to be an absolute bog.
If the rain absolutely tumbled down I think Tempted could go close but it would have to be an absolute bog.
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
Caulfield Race 7
Birdman at $3.70
pretty keen
Birdman at $3.70
pretty keen
Doubt the price blows
Trial tack was soft and grass was.long
Trial tack was soft and grass was.long
Halbrowne61
Well-known member
Yes, I can see maybe $1.50 JT 🤣🤣🤣
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
$1.50 about last years winner is good value to put in the multis better than $1.30
Halbrowne61
Well-known member
I was talking tongue in cheek, if it’s dry it will stay around $1.30. If it’s wet will be a different story !
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
if its wet i think tempted firm's $6 to $4.80 something like that
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
Birdman run was not too bad yesterday, think if Sir Delius runs it probably.wins, I just dont want to take 3.60 futures all in in case it goes for a spell
Halbrowne61
Well-known member
Two great broadcasters, and good blokes.
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
Worth noting with the world pools on the tote
The world Pool is framing markets at roughly 123 % the fixed odds around 115% give or take from what i can work out.
The value might fall out of the big spring carnival exotic bets if they continue to frame markets at 123% punters will be taking unders.
Sports betting is a different percentage if we take nrl typically they frame head to head markets at around 105% and a typical bookmaker margin of 5.45%
if we take nrl as the example the rough opening price market for premiership winner is around 125% (so the tab looks for a 25% margin)
For top 8 generally it is framed at around 120% (again bookies are looking at around a 20% margin)
The world Pool is framing markets at roughly 123 % the fixed odds around 115% give or take from what i can work out.
The value might fall out of the big spring carnival exotic bets if they continue to frame markets at 123% punters will be taking unders.
Sports betting is a different percentage if we take nrl typically they frame head to head markets at around 105% and a typical bookmaker margin of 5.45%
if we take nrl as the example the rough opening price market for premiership winner is around 125% (so the tab looks for a 25% margin)
For top 8 generally it is framed at around 120% (again bookies are looking at around a 20% margin)
Jedi_Tiger
Well-known member
Based off the market already, the only club i see some early value for at this stage is South Sydney at $11
They seem a bit over the right price I had them at $9 when I framed a market.
I think Penrith look a touch unders same with roosters and Storm look big unders.
I can at least start my 2027 bet with South Sydney at $11
