https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/04/29/how-20-round-season-affects-each-teams-finals-chances/?utm_source=NRLTWContent&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=NetworkContent
The 20-round competition will feature each team playing each other team once, with a second game against five sides rather than the usual nine.
Article then breaks down what points will be required to make the 8 etc.
A reduced 20-round season would feature no bye rounds so this analysis has stripped bye round points from all averages.
Over the past five years, when teams have each played 24 games and had two weekends off for byes and the representative round each season, the minor premiers have finished on an average of 37.2 points.
Based on a 20-round competition, that equates to a baseline of 30.1 points being needed to clinch top spot, so approximately 15 wins will be needed to collect the JJ Giltinan Shield.
To finish in the top four, from 2015-19 a tally of 30.4 points on average has been enough to get a double chance in the playoffs. If this year is just 20 rounds, teams are looking at 25 being the cut-off point, so 13 wins to guarantee a top-four spot or potentially one team to make it with a 12-8 record.
As far as eighth spot goes, the average number over the past five years has been 25.2,which means 20.1 points or at least 10 wins will likely be needed to get into the finals.