Coronavirus Outbreak

[DallasD]

Put your postcode in the search data box on the right and hit go, you can also search via LGA, or via health area (if you know it)

 

[cochise]

It's difficult to read too much into the statistics.

Different levels of testing, variances in populations, different ways of recording deaths all make it a bit like reading tea leaves.

I'm optimistic that it can be beat, but I can't see how it can realistically be achieved until there's some kind of treatment.

After all, this started with just one case, less than six months ago. Untreated, it only takes one case for it to start all over again.


You're right. Ultimately this will only ever be "under control" with a vaccine or antiviral treatment.
As a few experts said initially, the most likely outcome is not eradication like some previous coronavirus strains but a situation where it is always in the background with the ability to flair up either seasonally like influenza or with some other "trigger". At the moment it also looks unlikely (but not impossible) that any vaccine won't give lifetime immunity and will become annual - but too early to tell ATM

That seems likely to me, each outbreak will hopefully be less severe with the community building up some form of immunity!

 

[dazza65]

It's difficult to read too much into the statistics.

Different levels of testing, variances in populations, different ways of recording deaths all make it a bit like reading tea leaves.

I'm optimistic that it can be beat, but I can't see how it can realistically be achieved until there's some kind of treatment.

After all, this started with just one case, less than six months ago. Untreated, it only takes one case for it to start all over again.


You're right. Ultimately this will only ever be "under control" with a vaccine or antiviral treatment.
As a few experts said initially, the most likely outcome is not eradication like some previous coronavirus strains but a situation where it is always in the background with the ability to flair up either seasonally like influenza or with some other "trigger". At the moment it also looks unlikely (but not impossible) that any vaccine won't give lifetime immunity and will become annual - but too early to tell ATM

That seems likely to me, each outbreak will hopefully be less severe with the community building up some form of immunity!

Yes, herd immunity will come with vaccination - don't know how much will be required - anywhere between 40 to 90% vaccination rate if similar to flu. There is also a lot of research showing innate or "natural" immunity for Flu - answering why some people never get the flu and never get vaccinated - probably going to be similar to coronavirus but way too early to tell - immunology is a complex area that still has holes in knowledge.

 

[cochise]

It's difficult to read too much into the statistics.

Different levels of testing, variances in populations, different ways of recording deaths all make it a bit like reading tea leaves.

I'm optimistic that it can be beat, but I can't see how it can realistically be achieved until there's some kind of treatment.

After all, this started with just one case, less than six months ago. Untreated, it only takes one case for it to start all over again.


You're right. Ultimately this will only ever be "under control" with a vaccine or antiviral treatment.
As a few experts said initially, the most likely outcome is not eradication like some previous coronavirus strains but a situation where it is always in the background with the ability to flair up either seasonally like influenza or with some other "trigger". At the moment it also looks unlikely (but not impossible) that any vaccine won't give lifetime immunity and will become annual - but too early to tell ATM

That seems likely to me, each outbreak will hopefully be less severe with the community building up some form of immunity!


Yes, herd immunity will come with vaccination - don't know how much will be required - anywhere between 40 to 90% vaccination rate if similar to flu. There is also a lot of research showing innate or "natural" immunity for Flu - answering why some people never get the flu and never get vaccinated - probably going to be similar to coronavirus but way too early to tell - immunology is a complex area that still has holes in knowledge.

Yep 100%, it is also undetermined how long any immunity would last as well. Hear is hoping it has around a 10 year immunity instead of only lasting a year or 2!

 

[trentrunciman]

Had our first confirmed case at TAFE today...dear oh dear

 

[mike]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins

Hardly surprising given how their medical systems work. All based on privatisation and insurance. If you are not working basically you are not insured and hence not covered and therefore low on the list. If you can’t pay you don’t get treatment. Yes there is welfare but still seems limited.

 

[jadtiger]

As a wise man once said "USA land of the fee".You would hate to be poor there

 

[happy_tiger]

I’ve got a couple of questions?
Why is everyone in China wearing masks? While WHO are telling us all do not wear a mask unless you have been infected?
Medical researchers are also investigating a third method of transmission other than an infected person sneezing/coughing in your personal space or making contact with an infected surface. It is now thought that micrometer particles can float in the air for extended periods. This theory would explain the relatively high number of cases which remain under source investigation?


I’m pleased WHO are now reviewing their recommendations regarding the wearing of masks.
Stay safe people.

I have my opinion on the masks and gloves ....how many people want to be served by someone wearing gloves and masks .....

The greed never ends


The greed? I’m only halfway through my first coffee, so you’ll need to explain that please? My feeling is, this virus is taking lives and liberties from us, some liberties we may never get back. I would gladly give up a liberty if the trade off was saving a life. I’ve had the opportunity to save a couple of lives over the years and to me, a non medico, the feeling was pretty special. I don’t really care if people wear masks, providing they remove them when going to the bank.

The reason businesses aren't wanting staff to wear gloves and masks are they are worried customers will be scared off

I'm not sure what tangent your on

 

[Tim Sheens]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins


Agree US is a massive concern based on population size and late start with the testing. But I wouldnt exactly be particularly concerned about the graph you are showing. That grap I think is more a factor of the incredible amount of testing the US are doing now (over 1.2M) and that will force the new cases to rise significantly as they ramp up testing. I think the US are flushing out a lot more cases than the rest of the world (although I think we are doing a good job of this). Both US and Aus (270000 tests) have tested very roughly 1% of population.


Thought Australia's testing rate was still almost three times that of the US, despite the rapidly increasing numbers and also shown as such by your example? Plus their population is 330 million odd, so they would have to have conducted some 3.5 million tests to match us per capita. For a supposed leading nation, the US response has been basket case like at a federal level.

 

[dazza65]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins


Agree US is a massive concern based on population size and late start with the testing. But I wouldnt exactly be particularly concerned about the graph you are showing. That grap I think is more a factor of the incredible amount of testing the US are doing now (over 1.2M) and that will force the new cases to rise significantly as they ramp up testing. I think the US are flushing out a lot more cases than the rest of the world (although I think we are doing a good job of this). Both US and Aus (270000 tests) have tested very roughly 1% of population.


Thought Australia's testing rate was still almost three times that of the US, despite the rapidly increasing numbers and also shown as such by your example? Plus their population is 330 million odd, so they would have to have conducted some 3.5 million tests to match us per capita. For a supposed leading nation, the US response has been basket case like at a federal level.

Yes sorry @Tiger5150 don’t agree with you on that logic. Testing, no testing, that wasn’t my point Based on pure numbers, the “idiosyncrasies “ of the US Health system which I am familiar with having lived there for a few years and the inequities of hospital care represent a real concern for the average person. It is also a real issue for the global economy moving forward, in a way a much bigger issue that Europe.

 

[Tiger5150]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins

Hardly surprising given how their medical systems work. All based on privatisation and insurance. If you are not working basically you are not insured and hence not covered and therefore low on the list. If you can’t pay you don’t get treatment. Yes there is welfare but still seems limited.

They are treating all corona cases free of charge.

 

[Tiger5150]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins


Agree US is a massive concern based on population size and late start with the testing. But I wouldnt exactly be particularly concerned about the graph you are showing. That grap I think is more a factor of the incredible amount of testing the US are doing now (over 1.2M) and that will force the new cases to rise significantly as they ramp up testing. I think the US are flushing out a lot more cases than the rest of the world (although I think we are doing a good job of this). Both US and Aus (270000 tests) have tested very roughly 1% of population.


Thought Australia's testing rate was still almost three times that of the US, despite the rapidly increasing numbers and also shown as such by your example? Plus their population is 330 million odd, so they would have to have conducted some 3.5 million tests to match us per capita. For a supposed leading nation, the US response has been basket case like at a federal level.

Yes sorry @Tiger5150 don’t agree with you on that logic. Testing, no testing, that wasn’t my point Based on pure numbers, the “idiosyncrasies “ of the US Health system which I am familiar with having lived there for a few years and the inequities of hospital care represent a real concern for the average person. It is also a real issue for the global economy moving forward, in a way a much bigger issue that Europe.

Agree with formerguest on a per capita basis US v Aus. Disagree with you respectfully Dazza.

It has nothing to do with the US health system the simple mathematics that if they exponentially roll out their testing the positive results will follow that curve, it is irrefutable. Simple mathematics.

 

[mike]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins

Hardly surprising given how their medical systems work. All based on privatisation and insurance. If you are not working basically you are not insured and hence not covered and therefore low on the list. If you can’t pay you don’t get treatment. Yes there is welfare but still seems limited.


They are treating all corona cases free of charge.

They are now. However, look at it this way. You live in the US, used to the system. You’ve been stood down. You start to feel unwell but you have no insurance. Probably should go to the doctor but can’t afford the bills, so you decide not to go, it’s probably only the Flu. Eventually you get worse and have no choice but to go to hospital and are diagnosed with COVID19 and treated for free. Unfortunately it’s too late because you have already infected everyone you have come in contact with in the intervening time. Like I said hardly surprising the rates in the US are so high.

 

[Tiger5150]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins

Hardly surprising given how their medical systems work. All based on privatisation and insurance. If you are not working basically you are not insured and hence not covered and therefore low on the list. If you can’t pay you don’t get treatment. Yes there is welfare but still seems limited.


They are treating all corona cases free of charge.

They are now. However, look at it this way. You live in the US, used to the system. You’ve been stood down. You start to feel unwell but you have no insurance. Probably should go to the doctor but can’t afford the bills, so you decide not to go, it’s probably only the Flu. Eventually you get worse and have no choice but to go to hospital and are diagnosed with COVID19 and treated for free. Unfortunately it’s too late because you have already infected everyone you have come in contact with in the intervening time. Like I said hardly surprising the rates in the US are so high.

This is not bait, I would genuinely like to know how much it costs to go to the Dr in the US. The common narrative is as you have posted above, but above and beyond that the US has the best cancer survival rates in the world and basically the highest levels of medical expertise in the world. Genuinely interested in how it works.

On the surface we have nationalised health care here in Aus but that is not how it works. If you have something serious wrong with you, you get in the queue unless you have private insurance. Would like to know the truth about the difference.

 

[mike]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins

Hardly surprising given how their medical systems work. All based on privatisation and insurance. If you are not working basically you are not insured and hence not covered and therefore low on the list. If you can’t pay you don’t get treatment. Yes there is welfare but still seems limited.


They are treating all corona cases free of charge.

They are now. However, look at it this way. You live in the US, used to the system. You’ve been stood down. You start to feel unwell but you have no insurance. Probably should go to the doctor but can’t afford the bills, so you decide not to go, it’s probably only the Flu. Eventually you get worse and have no choice but to go to hospital and are diagnosed with COVID19 and treated for free. Unfortunately it’s too late because you have already infected everyone you have come in contact with in the intervening time. Like I said hardly surprising the rates in the US are so high.


This is not bait, I would genuinely like to know how much it costs to go to the Dr in the US. The common narrative is as you have posted above, but above and beyond that the US has the best cancer survival rates in the world and basically the highest levels of medical expertise in the world. Genuinely interested in how it works.

On the surface we have nationalised health care here in Aus but that is not how it works. If you have something serious wrong with you, you get in the queue unless you have private insurance. Would like to know the truth about the difference.

A quick google gives the answer. “ An initial consultation with a doctor will cost in the range of $100 – $200.”

 

[dazza65]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins


Agree US is a massive concern based on population size and late start with the testing. But I wouldnt exactly be particularly concerned about the graph you are showing. That grap I think is more a factor of the incredible amount of testing the US are doing now (over 1.2M) and that will force the new cases to rise significantly as they ramp up testing. I think the US are flushing out a lot more cases than the rest of the world (although I think we are doing a good job of this). Both US and Aus (270000 tests) have tested very roughly 1% of population.


Thought Australia's testing rate was still almost three times that of the US, despite the rapidly increasing numbers and also shown as such by your example? Plus their population is 330 million odd, so they would have to have conducted some 3.5 million tests to match us per capita. For a supposed leading nation, the US response has been basket case like at a federal level.

Yes sorry @Tiger5150 don’t agree with you on that logic. Testing, no testing, that wasn’t my point Based on pure numbers, the “idiosyncrasies “ of the US Health system which I am familiar with having lived there for a few years and the inequities of hospital care represent a real concern for the average person. It is also a real issue for the global economy moving forward, in a way a much bigger issue that Europe.


Agree with formerguest on a per capita basis US v Aus. Disagree with you respectfully Dazza.

It has nothing to do with the US health system the simple mathematics that if they exponentially roll out their testing the positive results will follow that curve, it is irrefutable. Simple mathematics.

Um yes.. my simple point is that they currently have 245,000 diagnosed and continuing to rise with about 6000 deaths and with their low testing to date (but increasing) and with their population and potential numbers to be infected, it has the potential to be an unmitigated disaster. Simple. How they handle the increase is the real question that many are very concerned about.

 

[Tiger5150]

I am concerned by the USA



I appreciate countries are in different stages but most are starting to flatten...... not so US
Source: Johns Hopkins


Agree US is a massive concern based on population size and late start with the testing. But I wouldnt exactly be particularly concerned about the graph you are showing. That grap I think is more a factor of the incredible amount of testing the US are doing now (over 1.2M) and that will force the new cases to rise significantly as they ramp up testing. I think the US are flushing out a lot more cases than the rest of the world (although I think we are doing a good job of this). Both US and Aus (270000 tests) have tested very roughly 1% of population.


Thought Australia's testing rate was still almost three times that of the US, despite the rapidly increasing numbers and also shown as such by your example? Plus their population is 330 million odd, so they would have to have conducted some 3.5 million tests to match us per capita. For a supposed leading nation, the US response has been basket case like at a federal level.

Yes sorry @Tiger5150 don’t agree with you on that logic. Testing, no testing, that wasn’t my point Based on pure numbers, the “idiosyncrasies “ of the US Health system which I am familiar with having lived there for a few years and the inequities of hospital care represent a real concern for the average person. It is also a real issue for the global economy moving forward, in a way a much bigger issue that Europe.


Agree with formerguest on a per capita basis US v Aus. Disagree with you respectfully Dazza.

It has nothing to do with the US health system the simple mathematics that if they exponentially roll out their testing the positive results will follow that curve, it is irrefutable. Simple mathematics.

Um yes.. my simple point is that they currently have 245,000 diagnosed and continuing to rise with about 6000 deaths and with their low testing to date (but increasing) and with their population and potential numbers to be infected, it has the potential to be an unmitigated disaster. Simple. How they handle the increase is the real question that many are very concerned about.

Exactly, so the same point that I was making. The exponential rate if increase is related to the exponential rate of testing.

 

[happy_tiger]

The person per square km/mile obviously changes a lot of things as well

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.



Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.



This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.




Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.




Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.




Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).



Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.



 

[pawsandclaws1]

When does personal responsibility become the issue on Ruby Princess? 29 Jan travel insurance companies signalling Covid 19. is not covered. After the debacle in Japan a cruise is the last place elderly citizens should be noting the comments from Dr Kerry Chant that all cases bar 11 were acquired on the cruise. I am expecting many more to die from this ship as the outcome was pre-determined once they chose to go.

By the way, is anyone else of the view the elephant in the room is comms between the Ruby Princess and other parties?