Coronavirus Outbreak

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@momo_amp_medo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140571) said:
I Don’t want to be full of gloom and doom on this subject but can’t see any of this being resolved and normality restored in short term.
There is a real possibility that governments that jump too soon might get burned.
Quite a few have archived the so called “flattening the curve“ only to experience a upward bounce in cases.
Also as seen to date ..... as you test more widely you find significantly more cases and therefore no one can be really sure what the extent of underlying problem is.
The thing is there are so many unknowns with this disease and misinformation that the only safe approach is to be conservative in relation to easing of restrictions.
So we may find that there is quite a way to go before this thing is put to bed. And what awaits us after that may be harder to take then the current extended holiday we are having with the family.
Stay safe!


I share your view. I’m keeping an eye on Sweden to somehow understand the magnitude of the problem.
 
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140601) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140556) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140554) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140547) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140545) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140540) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140533) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140524) said:
@TrueTiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140522) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140507) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140378) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140376) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140293) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140289) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140282) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140278) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1106561) said:
I'm living in HK. It's not fun right now...

I am in Metro Manila And that is Even less fun...just extended ECQ until 30 April..there is also a ban on sale of liquor ..add this to no NRL ?

I hope that ban on traveling to Manila is lifted soon because my wife still needs to get her visa so she can fly here(she is filipino).

Won’t happen at least until after 30April and see how the COVId-19 numbers end up here cause AU may block anyone travel to AU from Manila if they are bad. They have only just started any volume testing this week as had no test kits and started converting anything they can to makeshift hospitals cause they know once they start high volume testing the results will be bad.

It will be longer than that.
Opening for international travel won’t resume until either internationally this is under control or vaccine is available.

I dare say that you could gradually open up travel where countries have been able to suppress the virus. e.g. If Hong Kong and Australia had it under control, they could make an agreement to open it back up for direct flights only.

Would allow for the leisure industry to start back up, albeit with limited options.

If anything needs to happen our own tourist industry needs desperate help ...surely this has to be our main consideration in the short term

Main consideration is not to flood medical services.
Its not just Covid we are about to hit flu season.
It will last for a while yet. We have been told to support heightened care until September as of last week.

I have noticed that people are saying to open borders if the infection is under control and we have to get back to normal as soon as we can ..all legitimate claims and positive thinking,however in my opinion,I honestly think that there has to be complete thought into the decisions that will be made,mainly because of,
1..the possibility of re infection if there is no vaccine manufactured yet...
2..the absolute overloading of the hospitals from infected patients,not withstanding they will need help...
3..there are patients who really need hospital help,and I mean the ones who are not affected by the virus but have severe ongoing health problems ie..cancer patients,heart disease, patients,respitory ailments etc etc..

We are all going through the pains of this pandemic in far different ways,people losing jobs,split families,mums and dads not being able to see kids and the list goes on...if anything is to be gained from this,it must be that we have learnt something eg social distancing,limited gathering and isolation have certainly paid dividends on the spread of this virus...are we prepared to open up the communities as we were before just because someone thinks it will be ok or will we all support and heed the advice of the experts in their field,health experts who advise govt for eg..
I think this will be a slow comeback to get to the otherside of this with very few fatalities,lets face it,I would rather stay at home and have a few bourbons than risk going out and unintentionally infecting someone who could die...life is precious and we must always remember that we are all Gods creatures no matter what we do in life,most of us know right from wrong and Im willing to ride this out and follow the advice given...that way I can live with myself knowing I at least gave some one the chance to do the same...


Agree with your points but I'd add another one. Opportunity cost.

Whilst the borders are closed there is the possibly the opportunity to reinstate all other industries other than international travel and get back into a routine.

If borders are open it is inevitable that the infection returns and either we instantly lockdown again or we never really get out of it. The cost to the economy will WAY exceed the cost of international tourism.

I would love to see industries redevelop here,unfortunately it goes completely against the governments philosophy of "market forces".Labor wasnt a great deal better either when in power

I don’t know. The market forces are pretty clear at the moment. Manufacture or go without.


Explain what you mean? What are the impediments to importing at the moment?

Shipping is disrupted world wide. Manufacturing is disrupted world wide. If you want to ensure supply of anything you must manufacture.


Why is shipping disrupted? There is no restrictions on freight by sea or land.

Maybe not coming into Australia once they are here but in many other countries there certainly is. I’m still waiting on imports from various countries. Some are still in-transit at the source while others are just lost. Never had any issues until Covid19.


Mike, talking to a friend yesterday, who usually imports machines from US, has had trouble with delays and excessive costs has now decided to manufacture them himself here in Australia.

I have to say that’s a pretty good outcome. Well done to your mate. I hope a few more follow.
 
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140604) said:
@momo_amp_medo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140571) said:
I Don’t want to be full of gloom and doom on this subject but can’t see any of this being resolved and normality restored in short term.
There is a real possibility that governments that jump too soon might get burned.
Quite a few have archived the so called “flattening the curve“ only to experience a upward bounce in cases.
Also as seen to date ..... as you test more widely you find significantly more cases and therefore no one can be really sure what the extent of underlying problem is.
The thing is there are so many unknowns with this disease and misinformation that the only safe approach is to be conservative in relation to easing of restrictions.
So we may find that there is quite a way to go before this thing is put to bed. And what awaits us after that may be harder to take then the current extended holiday we are having with the family.
Stay safe!


I share your view. I’m keeping an eye on Sweden to somehow understand the magnitude of the problem.


Why Sweden? I would think they are an example to avoid?
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140336) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140092) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139798) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139484) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139116) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138849) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138622) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138253) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138063) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137850) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137555) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137552) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137549) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137300) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137292) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137277) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137269) said:
I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.

![5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585441939077-5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png)


Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.

![178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526104568-178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png)

![c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526115100-c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png)

This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.

![c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607821813-c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png)

![09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607833853-09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png)


Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.

![ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692708400-ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png)

![1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692728842-1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png)


Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.

![6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781846743-6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png)

![0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781861499-0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png)


Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).

![ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872542727-ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png)

![3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872551356-3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png)


Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.

![01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954643817-01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png)

![38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954655169-38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png)


Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.

![a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041612571-a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png)

![fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041622074-fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png)


I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.

![eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131024323-eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png)

![ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131036811-ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png)


Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.

![c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208096790-c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png)

![ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208113816-ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png)


Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.

![0be98cc2-aa72-420a-a5aa-fe04e61a2519-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586301313314-0be98cc2-aa72-420a-a5aa-fe04e61a2519-image.png)

![cc7ccbf3-e098-4f02-8dcf-d068c2171d3e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586301320914-cc7ccbf3-e098-4f02-8dcf-d068c2171d3e-image.png)


Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.

![915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386729493-915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png)

![97f8f17a-0067-4990-995a-ec3569d47704-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386739170-97f8f17a-0067-4990-995a-ec3569d47704-image.png)
 
@TrueTiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140551) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140524) said:
@TrueTiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140522) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140507) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140378) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140376) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140293) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140289) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140282) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140278) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1106561) said:
I'm living in HK. It's not fun right now...

I am in Metro Manila And that is Even less fun...just extended ECQ until 30 April..there is also a ban on sale of liquor ..add this to no NRL ?

I hope that ban on traveling to Manila is lifted soon because my wife still needs to get her visa so she can fly here(she is filipino).

Won’t happen at least until after 30April and see how the COVId-19 numbers end up here cause AU may block anyone travel to AU from Manila if they are bad. They have only just started any volume testing this week as had no test kits and started converting anything they can to makeshift hospitals cause they know once they start high volume testing the results will be bad.

It will be longer than that.
Opening for international travel won’t resume until either internationally this is under control or vaccine is available.

I dare say that you could gradually open up travel where countries have been able to suppress the virus. e.g. If Hong Kong and Australia had it under control, they could make an agreement to open it back up for direct flights only.

Would allow for the leisure industry to start back up, albeit with limited options.

If anything needs to happen our own tourist industry needs desperate help ...surely this has to be our main consideration in the short term

Main consideration is not to flood medical services.
Its not just Covid we are about to hit flu season.
It will last for a while yet. We have been told to support heightened care until September as of last week.

I have noticed that people are saying to open borders if the infection is under control and we have to get back to normal as soon as we can ..all legitimate claims and positive thinking,however in my opinion,I honestly think that there has to be complete thought into the decisions that will be made,mainly because of,
1..the possibility of re infection if there is no vaccine manufactured yet...
2..the absolute overloading of the hospitals from infected patients,not withstanding they will need help...
3..there are patients who really need hospital help,and I mean the ones who are not affected by the virus but have severe ongoing health problems ie..cancer patients,heart disease, patients,respitory ailments etc etc..

We are all going through the pains of this pandemic in far different ways,people losing jobs,split families,mums and dads not being able to see kids and the list goes on...if anything is to be gained from this,it must be that we have learnt something eg social distancing,limited gathering and isolation have certainly paid dividends on the spread of this virus...are we prepared to open up the communities as we were before just because someone thinks it will be ok or will we all support and heed the advice of the experts in their field,health experts who advise govt for eg..
I think this will be a slow comeback to get to the otherside of this with very few fatalities,lets face it,I would rather stay at home and have a few bourbons than risk going out and unintentionally infecting someone who could die...life is precious and we must always remember that we are all Gods creatures no matter what we do in life,most of us know right from wrong and Im willing to ride this out and follow the advice given...that way I can live with myself knowing I at least gave some one the chance to do the same...


Agree with your points but I'd add another one. Opportunity cost.

Whilst the borders are closed there is the possibly the opportunity to reinstate all other industries other than international travel and get back into a routine.

If borders are open it is inevitable that the infection returns and either we instantly lockdown again or we never really get out of it. The cost to the economy will WAY exceed the cost of international tourism.

I agree with you emphatically mate,I should have stipulated the international borders,not the internal state borders...the international travellers coming here pose more of a danger than our people already within the country...thanks for that..

Not necessarily ..if they are prepared to do a 2 week lockdown overseas and then a 2 week lockdown here (at their own expense of course )
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140612) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140604) said:
@momo_amp_medo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140571) said:
I Don’t want to be full of gloom and doom on this subject but can’t see any of this being resolved and normality restored in short term.
There is a real possibility that governments that jump too soon might get burned.
Quite a few have archived the so called “flattening the curve“ only to experience a upward bounce in cases.
Also as seen to date ..... as you test more widely you find significantly more cases and therefore no one can be really sure what the extent of underlying problem is.
The thing is there are so many unknowns with this disease and misinformation that the only safe approach is to be conservative in relation to easing of restrictions.
So we may find that there is quite a way to go before this thing is put to bed. And what awaits us after that may be harder to take then the current extended holiday we are having with the family.
Stay safe!


I share your view. I’m keeping an eye on Sweden to somehow understand the magnitude of the problem.


Why Sweden? I would think they are an example to avoid?


Exactly why we should keep an eye on their approach, and any success if any, because they may prove to be the canary in the mine shaft? Governments have done worse case models based on a “business as usual” course of action and some of those numbers are frightening.


Edit.
SWEDEN CORONAVIRUS DEATHS JUMP 20% IN A DAY TO 477 AS PM STILL REFUSES TO LOCK DOWN DESPITE WARNING THOUSANDS WILL DIE.
Seems like a lot of people dying just trying to prove social distancing doesn’t work. ☹️
 
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140636) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140612) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140604) said:
@momo_amp_medo said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140571) said:
I Don’t want to be full of gloom and doom on this subject but can’t see any of this being resolved and normality restored in short term.
There is a real possibility that governments that jump too soon might get burned.
Quite a few have archived the so called “flattening the curve“ only to experience a upward bounce in cases.
Also as seen to date ..... as you test more widely you find significantly more cases and therefore no one can be really sure what the extent of underlying problem is.
The thing is there are so many unknowns with this disease and misinformation that the only safe approach is to be conservative in relation to easing of restrictions.
So we may find that there is quite a way to go before this thing is put to bed. And what awaits us after that may be harder to take then the current extended holiday we are having with the family.
Stay safe!


I share your view. I’m keeping an eye on Sweden to somehow understand the magnitude of the problem.


Why Sweden? I would think they are an example to avoid?


Exactly why we should keep an eye on their approach, and any success if any, because they may prove to be the canary in the mine shaft? Governments have done worse case models based on a “business as usual” course of action and some of those numbers are frightening.


Edit.
SWEDEN CORONAVIRUS DEATHS JUMP 20% IN A DAY TO 477 AS PM STILL REFUSES TO LOCK DOWN DESPITE WARNING THOUSANDS WILL DIE.
Seems like a lot of people dying just trying to prove social distancing doesn’t work. ☹️


Sweden to me looks like a catastrophe in progress. They have 3 x as many cases as us per capita, doing half as many tests. They have a MASSIVE mortality rate at almost 10% of confirmed cases which to me means they probably 10 x as many cases undetected. Their death rate per capita is 32 x ours!!!

It seems weird to me that Sweden and the nordic countries are often used as an example is so many cases (politics, national health, socialism). They have a very unique demographic that works very well in some circumstances and not so well in others. To me their strategy in tis isa disaster.
 
England is the other country that is getting bad predictions ...predicted their death rate will be more than Italy and Spain combined and will only be topped by the US
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140554) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140547) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140545) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140540) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140533) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140524) said:
@TrueTiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140522) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140507) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140378) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140376) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140293) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140289) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140282) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140278) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1106561) said:
I'm living in HK. It's not fun right now...

I am in Metro Manila And that is Even less fun...just extended ECQ until 30 April..there is also a ban on sale of liquor ..add this to no NRL ?

I hope that ban on traveling to Manila is lifted soon because my wife still needs to get her visa so she can fly here(she is filipino).

Won’t happen at least until after 30April and see how the COVId-19 numbers end up here cause AU may block anyone travel to AU from Manila if they are bad. They have only just started any volume testing this week as had no test kits and started converting anything they can to makeshift hospitals cause they know once they start high volume testing the results will be bad.

It will be longer than that.
Opening for international travel won’t resume until either internationally this is under control or vaccine is available.

I dare say that you could gradually open up travel where countries have been able to suppress the virus. e.g. If Hong Kong and Australia had it under control, they could make an agreement to open it back up for direct flights only.

Would allow for the leisure industry to start back up, albeit with limited options.

If anything needs to happen our own tourist industry needs desperate help ...surely this has to be our main consideration in the short term

Main consideration is not to flood medical services.
Its not just Covid we are about to hit flu season.
It will last for a while yet. We have been told to support heightened care until September as of last week.

I have noticed that people are saying to open borders if the infection is under control and we have to get back to normal as soon as we can ..all legitimate claims and positive thinking,however in my opinion,I honestly think that there has to be complete thought into the decisions that will be made,mainly because of,
1..the possibility of re infection if there is no vaccine manufactured yet...
2..the absolute overloading of the hospitals from infected patients,not withstanding they will need help...
3..there are patients who really need hospital help,and I mean the ones who are not affected by the virus but have severe ongoing health problems ie..cancer patients,heart disease, patients,respitory ailments etc etc..

We are all going through the pains of this pandemic in far different ways,people losing jobs,split families,mums and dads not being able to see kids and the list goes on...if anything is to be gained from this,it must be that we have learnt something eg social distancing,limited gathering and isolation have certainly paid dividends on the spread of this virus...are we prepared to open up the communities as we were before just because someone thinks it will be ok or will we all support and heed the advice of the experts in their field,health experts who advise govt for eg..
I think this will be a slow comeback to get to the otherside of this with very few fatalities,lets face it,I would rather stay at home and have a few bourbons than risk going out and unintentionally infecting someone who could die...life is precious and we must always remember that we are all Gods creatures no matter what we do in life,most of us know right from wrong and Im willing to ride this out and follow the advice given...that way I can live with myself knowing I at least gave some one the chance to do the same...


Agree with your points but I'd add another one. Opportunity cost.

Whilst the borders are closed there is the possibly the opportunity to reinstate all other industries other than international travel and get back into a routine.

If borders are open it is inevitable that the infection returns and either we instantly lockdown again or we never really get out of it. The cost to the economy will WAY exceed the cost of international tourism.

I would love to see industries redevelop here,unfortunately it goes completely against the governments philosophy of "market forces".Labor wasnt a great deal better either when in power

I don’t know. The market forces are pretty clear at the moment. Manufacture or go without.


Explain what you mean? What are the impediments to importing at the moment?

Shipping is disrupted world wide. Manufacturing is disrupted world wide. If you want to ensure supply of anything you must manufacture.


Why is shipping disrupted? There is no restrictions on freight by sea or land.

I'm seeing triple costs out of Italy for airfreight at the moment. Germany is not far behind. Sea freight is also impacted but not quite as high.

I think its a mix of people off work / hazard pay/ delays in manufacturing and to be honest, a sprinkle of profiteering by freight forwarders.
 
In breaking news, the bordermreister has reappeared after his virus experience. He said it creeps up on you. Maybe like the Ruby Process.

Anyway he is talking tough about taking it to fraudsters who want to take advantage of the $1500 payment. It is a wide ranging portfolio and no doubt Border Farce will assist.
 
@tigerbalm said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140666) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140554) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140547) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140545) said:
@mike said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140540) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140533) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140524) said:
@TrueTiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140522) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140507) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140378) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140376) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140293) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140289) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140282) said:
@WT2019 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140278) said:
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1106561) said:
I'm living in HK. It's not fun right now...

I am in Metro Manila And that is Even less fun...just extended ECQ until 30 April..there is also a ban on sale of liquor ..add this to no NRL ?

I hope that ban on traveling to Manila is lifted soon because my wife still needs to get her visa so she can fly here(she is filipino).

Won’t happen at least until after 30April and see how the COVId-19 numbers end up here cause AU may block anyone travel to AU from Manila if they are bad. They have only just started any volume testing this week as had no test kits and started converting anything they can to makeshift hospitals cause they know once they start high volume testing the results will be bad.

It will be longer than that.
Opening for international travel won’t resume until either internationally this is under control or vaccine is available.

I dare say that you could gradually open up travel where countries have been able to suppress the virus. e.g. If Hong Kong and Australia had it under control, they could make an agreement to open it back up for direct flights only.

Would allow for the leisure industry to start back up, albeit with limited options.

If anything needs to happen our own tourist industry needs desperate help ...surely this has to be our main consideration in the short term

Main consideration is not to flood medical services.
Its not just Covid we are about to hit flu season.
It will last for a while yet. We have been told to support heightened care until September as of last week.

I have noticed that people are saying to open borders if the infection is under control and we have to get back to normal as soon as we can ..all legitimate claims and positive thinking,however in my opinion,I honestly think that there has to be complete thought into the decisions that will be made,mainly because of,
1..the possibility of re infection if there is no vaccine manufactured yet...
2..the absolute overloading of the hospitals from infected patients,not withstanding they will need help...
3..there are patients who really need hospital help,and I mean the ones who are not affected by the virus but have severe ongoing health problems ie..cancer patients,heart disease, patients,respitory ailments etc etc..

We are all going through the pains of this pandemic in far different ways,people losing jobs,split families,mums and dads not being able to see kids and the list goes on...if anything is to be gained from this,it must be that we have learnt something eg social distancing,limited gathering and isolation have certainly paid dividends on the spread of this virus...are we prepared to open up the communities as we were before just because someone thinks it will be ok or will we all support and heed the advice of the experts in their field,health experts who advise govt for eg..
I think this will be a slow comeback to get to the otherside of this with very few fatalities,lets face it,I would rather stay at home and have a few bourbons than risk going out and unintentionally infecting someone who could die...life is precious and we must always remember that we are all Gods creatures no matter what we do in life,most of us know right from wrong and Im willing to ride this out and follow the advice given...that way I can live with myself knowing I at least gave some one the chance to do the same...


Agree with your points but I'd add another one. Opportunity cost.

Whilst the borders are closed there is the possibly the opportunity to reinstate all other industries other than international travel and get back into a routine.

If borders are open it is inevitable that the infection returns and either we instantly lockdown again or we never really get out of it. The cost to the economy will WAY exceed the cost of international tourism.

I would love to see industries redevelop here,unfortunately it goes completely against the governments philosophy of "market forces".Labor wasnt a great deal better either when in power

I don’t know. The market forces are pretty clear at the moment. Manufacture or go without.


Explain what you mean? What are the impediments to importing at the moment?

Shipping is disrupted world wide. Manufacturing is disrupted world wide. If you want to ensure supply of anything you must manufacture.


Why is shipping disrupted? There is no restrictions on freight by sea or land.

I'm seeing triple costs out of Italy for airfreight at the moment. Germany is not far behind. Sea freight is also impacted but not quite as high.

I think its a mix of people off work / hazard pay/ delays in manufacturing and to be honest, a sprinkle of profiteering by freight forwarders.

Passenger flights actually carry freight, along with you and luggage. So there is a lot less availability.

Might be impacting both shipping and air freight costs.
 
@pawsandclaws1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140721) said:
In breaking news, the bordermreister has reappeared after his virus experience. He said it creeps up on you. Maybe like the Ruby Process.

Anyway he is talking tough about taking it to fraudsters who want to take advantage of the $1500 payment. It is a wide ranging portfolio and no doubt Border Farce will assist.

You can be just about guaranteed that if a refugee needing medical treatment was aboard the cruise liner, there would have been a fleet of boats keeping them from docking. I hope that the poor crew members are finally getting decent treatment.

Meanwhile, his family businesses that have long benefited from the public purse are getting bailed out again.
 
Seems plenty of people are dying in their own US homes from the Corona virus, yet have not been added to the official totals, as they had not been tested. Some fire department members have stated that their fatality removal numbers are around ten times higher than normal and most had been said to be suffering from similar symptoms.
 
SMH story a few minutes ago which brings Border Farce under increasing scrutiny over Ruby Princess.

Time for Defence to take over all sea patrols with an additional 12 to 24 Arafua Class patrol boats being constructed in WA/SA. Recruit our youth who are seeking work. Reform separate customs and quarantine departments and ditch the paramilitary garb.
 
@pawsandclaws1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140930) said:
SMH story a few minutes ago which brings Border Farce under increasing scrutiny over Ruby Princess.

Interesting the most up-voted comment is which one of Dutton, Morrison or Berejiklian is alleged to have had a relative aboard who wanted off? It wouldn't be Berejiklian so that narrows the alleged field.

Time for Defence to take over all sea patrols with an additional 12 to 24 Arafua Class patrol boats being constructed in WA/SA. Recruit our youth who are seeking work. Reform separate customs and quarantine departments and ditch the paramilitary garb.
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140614) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140336) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140092) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139798) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139484) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139116) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138849) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138622) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138253) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138063) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137850) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137555) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137552) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137549) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137300) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137292) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137277) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137269) said:
I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.

![5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585441939077-5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png)


Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.

![178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526104568-178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png)

![c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526115100-c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png)

This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.

![c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607821813-c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png)

![09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607833853-09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png)


Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.

![ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692708400-ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png)

![1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692728842-1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png)


Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.

![6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781846743-6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png)

![0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781861499-0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png)


Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).

![ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872542727-ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png)

![3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872551356-3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png)


Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.

![01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954643817-01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png)

![38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954655169-38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png)


Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.

![a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041612571-a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png)

![fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041622074-fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png)


I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.

![eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131024323-eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png)

![ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131036811-ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png)


Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.

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Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.

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Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.

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Todays update. Remember I said it was getting predictable again, with expected number to be 6112 - 6119, it turned out to be 6104, so not bad. This equates to a slight drop again in the exponential multiplier down from 1.017 to 1.015, so pretty steady. First time under 100 new cases since 17 March

Expect it to be around 6195 today.

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![28d8b8f7-91a7-4e7b-9698-b27b988c3ae1-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586479690763-28d8b8f7-91a7-4e7b-9698-b27b988c3ae1-image.png)
 
I was just reading a terrible article on the BBC website about a paramedic in the usa who has just had his worst day in 17 years on the job.
In the course of the day he has to attend to many emergencies and on this day he had to tell 12 different families that the person he was supposed to help was dead from covid-19,one of the people he had to tell had lost her father 3 days earlier and now her mother to this appalling scourge.
We owe a massive debt to each and every person facing this and dealing with it on a daily basis.The toll on these peoples mental health will be very difficult to deal with.
It is not just the families of the deceased who have to cope with this.
 
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141347) said:
I was just reading a terrible article on the BBC website about a paramedic in the usa who has just had his worst day in 17 years on the job.
In the course of the day he has to attend to many emergencies and on this day he had to tell 12 different families that the person he was supposed to help was dead from covid-19,one of the people he had to tell had lost her father 3 days earlier and now her mother to this appalling scourge.
We owe a massive debt to each and every person facing this and dealing with it on a daily basis.The toll on these peoples mental health will be very difficult to deal with.
It is not just the families of the deceased who have to cope with this.

Yeah, terrible over there and the frontline first responder services also facing unprecedented multiple volumes of death when attending calls to people's homes. If the deaths at home and transit were included, then the virus fatality figures in some areas may be near a quarter or so larger than those published.

As to why so many people dying in their homes or in ambulances, at this stage we cannot be sure, but their apparent symptoms point to it being from the virus and the likely reason they are staying home is lack of insurance, or their ability to fund the co-payments.

Must take a horrible toll on all their service personnel when a system is overloaded, as well as those in similar positions worldwide, from the first responders and right through to those loading trucks with body bags, then those burying or burning them.
 
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