Coronavirus Outbreak

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@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141350) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141347) said:
I was just reading a terrible article on the BBC website about a paramedic in the usa who has just had his worst day in 17 years on the job.
In the course of the day he has to attend to many emergencies and on this day he had to tell 12 different families that the person he was supposed to help was dead from covid-19,one of the people he had to tell had lost her father 3 days earlier and now her mother to this appalling scourge.
We owe a massive debt to each and every person facing this and dealing with it on a daily basis.The toll on these peoples mental health will be very difficult to deal with.
It is not just the families of the deceased who have to cope with this.

Yeah, terrible over there and the frontline first responder services also facing unprecedented multiple volumes of death when attending calls to people's homes. If the deaths at home and transit were included, then the virus fatality figures in some areas may be near a quarter or so larger than those published.

As to why so many people dying in their homes or in ambulances, at this stage we cannot be sure, but their apparent symptoms point to it being from the virus and the likely reason they are staying home is lack of insurance, or their ability to fund the co-payments.

Must take a horrible toll on all their service personnel when a system is overloaded, as well as those in similar positions worldwide, from the first responders and right through to those loading trucks with body bags, then those burying or burning them.

It really is quite disturbing to see how badly the supposed world powerhouse falls apart in these types of crisis. The fact that the most powerful nation in the world has people dying in their homes due to lack of insurance is really telling. Sections of the US turn into third world standards when a crisis hits, it was similar during the aftermath or hurricane Katrina. It really makes it appear that a lot of the US is a cosmedic façade that is dissolved during a these sort of events. It really makes you worry for people over there!
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140989) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140614) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140336) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140092) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139798) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139484) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139116) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138849) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138622) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138253) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138063) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137850) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137555) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137552) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137549) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137300) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137292) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137277) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137269) said:
I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.

![5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585441939077-5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png)


Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.

![178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526104568-178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png)

![c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526115100-c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png)

This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.

![c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607821813-c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png)

![09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607833853-09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png)


Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.

![ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692708400-ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png)

![1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692728842-1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png)


Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.

![6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781846743-6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png)

![0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781861499-0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png)


Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).

![ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872542727-ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png)

![3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872551356-3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png)


Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.

![01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954643817-01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png)

![38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954655169-38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png)


Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.

![a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041612571-a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png)

![fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041622074-fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png)


I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.

![eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131024323-eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png)

![ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131036811-ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png)


Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.

![c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208096790-c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png)

![ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208113816-ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png)


Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.

![0be98cc2-aa72-420a-a5aa-fe04e61a2519-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586301313314-0be98cc2-aa72-420a-a5aa-fe04e61a2519-image.png)

![cc7ccbf3-e098-4f02-8dcf-d068c2171d3e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586301320914-cc7ccbf3-e098-4f02-8dcf-d068c2171d3e-image.png)


Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.

![915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386729493-915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png)

![97f8f17a-0067-4990-995a-ec3569d47704-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386739170-97f8f17a-0067-4990-995a-ec3569d47704-image.png)



Todays update. Remember I said it was getting predictable again, with expected number to be 6112 - 6119, it turned out to be 6104, so not bad. This equates to a slight drop again in the exponential multiplier down from 1.017 to 1.015, so pretty steady. First time under 100 new cases since 17 March

Expect it to be around 6195 today.

![42c4a973-1ab8-41e9-a7b4-4376e9af1cc5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586479678317-42c4a973-1ab8-41e9-a7b4-4376e9af1cc5-image.png)

![28d8b8f7-91a7-4e7b-9698-b27b988c3ae1-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586479690763-28d8b8f7-91a7-4e7b-9698-b27b988c3ae1-image.png)


Predicted 6198, turned out to be 6203. Incredibly steady and predictable at the moment. For what its worth, the multiplier rose yesterday from its lowest point at 1.015 to 1.016 so effectively steady.

Hopefully we keep the total under 6293 today.

![1df25e58-9ec5-4504-b03e-7ea4fc3cc900-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586561594260-1df25e58-9ec5-4504-b03e-7ea4fc3cc900-image.png)

![44437119-acce-4532-b1c5-b46b1d3fc576-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586561605536-44437119-acce-4532-b1c5-b46b1d3fc576-image.png)
 
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141362) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140989) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140614) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140336) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1140092) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139798) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139484) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1139116) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138849) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138622) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138253) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1138063) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137850) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137555) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137552) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137549) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137300) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137292) said:
@Tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137277) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1137269) said:
I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.


Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.


5150, I’m not having a go at you either and I’m not wanting to get into a any pee high club discussion.
Just pointing out my observation that we always appear to be a country which follows, rather than one which gets on the front foot instinctively and decisively does what’s best for Australia and it’s citizens. There was a time when citizenship meant something. Anyway, cheer on your club if you like, but it doesn’t explain the failings in our political system.
Here’s an example..
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6698458/hairdressers-call-for-clear-messaging-directive-to-close-from-government/


Mate I dont necessarily disagree with you and I am **definitely** not wanting to get into a club discussion, in fact I dont actually feel like I have a club in this discussion, definitely not one Im cheering on.

Part of what prompted me to respond to your post was listening to discussions about what is going on in the UK. Their strategy is a bit different to what is going on in Italy & US and to a great extent appears to be a lot more successful. Their strategy is not based on auto lock down but involves lock down when required.

Im not sure what you are specifically referring to when you say the Govt which follows, particularly when we were the second country to shut borders to China, Iran & Italy. It is entirely possible that the strategy that the Aus Govt is following, on the advice of their experts, is entirely intentional and what is happening is EXACTLY what they are trying to do, but merely is different to the instinctive reaction of the general population, who aren't aware of the advice they are getting from the expertise.


Obviously not everyone is listening to the same experts.
I don’t have a problem with the governments staggered approach, although the downside is they need to wait 14 days to see what’s working. It was usually the approach I’ve taken, whether in business or with my health. If we follow the Shorten / Albo approach which is ‘throw the kitchen sink at it and hope for the best, then if it doesn’t work it’s harder to find out why. Or if it does work we can only speculate which remedy was more effective. I don’t know if the enormity of our problem is registering with some. I’ve heard from Doc the damage the virus causes to the lungs is irreparable.

It is hard to argue with the measures so far when the data is starting to turn for us, we know have to see if we need to make more restrictions to get it turn enough!


I was not going to post this for a few days to see how it panned out, but what you are saying correlates well with it. Four days ago the exponential rate of growth dropped markedly from a steady 1.23 - 1.25 down to 1.13. But since then it seems to have instantly found a new steady level with four days 1.13, 1.15, 1.13, 1.14. Hoping it drops again but if it stays there, more measures might be needed.

![5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585441939077-5e131f51-c76b-4abd-8e5b-98bd82a04973-image.png)


Well a couple of people wanted an update so here we are.....

Yesterday there was a significant dip in the exponential growth multiplier. It dipped down from a steady 1.3 for a few days, down below 1.1 to 1.09. This is pretty significant as it may be the second round of restrictions washing through. For those playing along at home, to be steady at 1.1 we need less that 4382 cases by the end of today.

![178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526104568-178df555-a81b-4a63-9bb3-34a41cc35182-image.png)

![c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585526115100-c51fe25f-5ed6-4aba-b79c-9310e59195b8-image.png)

This is obviously encouraging as slowing it down is obviously a good thing, but how does this end? At what point do we start thinking about re-opening the economy (Im not suggesting soon)?

I could imagine a scenario where parts of the local economy are reopened, but with disasters all over the world (US and parts of Europe), once its under control here I can see our borders closed for a LONG time.


Ok so something is definitely happening and so far it looks good. Another big dip yesterday in the exponential growth multiplier . It was steady at 1.23 for weeks, then spent four days at 1.13 and has spent the last two days going down. 1.09 Sunday and 1.06 yesterday.

Its very encouraging and shows that the restrictions and changes in behaviour are working. I have a couple of worries. People are behaving better, but not perfectly (we are Aussies) and I dont think we can get that multiplier down to 1 based on restrictions alone, so what does that mean? We get to a low multiplier (growth rate) and stay indoors?

I also worry that if we get teh growth rate low enough people will say "screw this" and go back to normal life and rates will bounce back up.

Anyway, so far so good. For those playing along, to keep it at 1.06 we need to keep the total to under 4523. At the time of posting (9:30) it was already 4364.

![c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607821813-c9c38040-01b2-4ecf-a963-6a8e70972bc0-image.png)

![09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585607833853-09b6c536-47a1-4dc1-ae3d-aceabc0c1e8b-image.png)


Another update. Yesterday stayed pretty steady with exponential multiplier of 1.06. I can see some merit in Mikes comment about reduced testing however. TO stay steady at 1.06 we need todays cases to stay below 4830. We are at 4711 already at 9am.

![ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692708400-ed65db15-fd88-4054-8e6f-ecfff673bd36-image.png)

![1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585692728842-1b9f51ee-99d3-4cf8-b227-3cd6c3efbe9b-image.png)


Todays update. Yesterday was steady, very steady unfortunately. After an encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier, we have now had three days steady at 1.06.

Hoping the stricter measures start to wash through and we are not stuck here.

Need to keep total cases under 5150 today.

![6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781846743-6029adc5-7fef-4a6d-8dab-222a459887f5-image.png)

![0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585781861499-0810afd3-960b-43b1-81e4-4068457ef324-image.png)


Todays update.

A slight dip again yesterday. After three days at 1.06, the exponential multiplier dipped slightly to 1.05. Hopefully continues down but we might be getting to the point of diminishing returns. To maintain 1.05 growth or less, we need todays total to stay under 5400.

Had a thought this morning when considering someone else pointing out that new cases seem to be almost staying under 300 a day and this being a good thing. I agree that relative to what could be it is a reasonable result, but at current death rates, that would still 3-4 deaths a day (delayed by 20 days).

![ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872542727-ee01dccd-74e6-4dfc-ad52-b01285b7d64e-image.png)

![3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585872551356-3f1411f3-07af-4a28-8f76-1467d73ce418-image.png)


Update for Friday 03/04/20

Another encouraging dip in the exponential multiplier. Dropped down from 1.056 to 1.041. Very encouraging. To maintain 1.04 we need the total cases to remain under 5570 today. at 10am they are still at last nights total 5350.

![01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954643817-01940de7-7f7e-404e-b600-2ea3939608e0-image.png)

![38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1585954655169-38c0acb2-c17f-48c5-919b-b3c4aa2f66f7-image.png)


Saturdays Update
Another encouraging dip. THe exponential multiplier dropped under 1.04 to 1.037. To keep it this low we need to stay under 5757 total cases today.

![a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041612571-a5aeb14a-c0e1-40ca-9df8-3fe3cb2ccf9c-image.png)

![fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586041622074-fddf9128-4bfd-4551-9bf0-cba7d58986e4-image.png)


I'd like to briefly derail this NSW Health & Border Force discussion with some boring numbers.

The trajectory continued downwards yesterday. The exponential multiplier dipped lower than Saturdays 1.037 to 1.024 which is very encouraging. Only 137 new cases (still equals 1-2 deaths in 2 weeks) . Clearly the measures are working. Fingers crossed there is no reversal. I hope Aussies being Aussies we dont revert to close enough and start to get out and about for a while. To stay at this low point, we need the total cases to stay below 5827 today.

Personally I'd love to see the multiplier get to 1, stick at it for 3-4 weeks then open everything but the borders back up.

![eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131024323-eb76f43e-f9a6-43d9-9966-1ae81dccaeec-image.png)

![ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586131036811-ffb0b46a-a709-4768-88c3-173af2b4984b-image.png)


Todays update. This seems too good to be true. Yesterday the exponential multiplier dropped again under 1.02 to 1.018. To maintain this we need to stay under 5905 today.

![c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208096790-c5502386-c1d5-4aa1-9d08-5043f7e1e6de-image.png)

![ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586208113816-ed576d66-b7b9-461d-975d-7f08b004cdc6-image.png)


Todays update, after yesterdays optimism, a bit of reality.

The exponential multiplier stayed steady at 1.019. Its not a bad result and its relatively low, but Im hopeful for the sake of opening things up again that we can get it way lower. I want the total cases number to stay under 6000 today.

![0be98cc2-aa72-420a-a5aa-fe04e61a2519-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586301313314-0be98cc2-aa72-420a-a5aa-fe04e61a2519-image.png)

![cc7ccbf3-e098-4f02-8dcf-d068c2171d3e-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586301320914-cc7ccbf3-e098-4f02-8dcf-d068c2171d3e-image.png)


Well it seems we have hit a plateau. After a few days with solid drops in the exponential multiplier, down to a reasonably low level, we have now had three days of very steady levels of 1.018, 1.019 and yesterday 1.017. When this started I said it was unnerving how predictable it was every day when it was around 1.23 and again now for three days Ive been able to predict within 10 the total cases at the end of the day. The rate is relatively low, but for any chance of an exit I think we need it to drop more, at least below 1.01.

To maintain yesterdays rate, we need the total to stay under 6119 today. Personally I'd love it to stay at least under 6112 because that would be the first day with under 100 new cases for a long time.

Again for comparison, if we didnt drop the rate from 1.23, we would have had 62413 cases yesterday.

![915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386729493-915f240e-df46-4e6d-a19b-c1e016745693-image.png)

![97f8f17a-0067-4990-995a-ec3569d47704-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586386739170-97f8f17a-0067-4990-995a-ec3569d47704-image.png)



Todays update. Remember I said it was getting predictable again, with expected number to be 6112 - 6119, it turned out to be 6104, so not bad. This equates to a slight drop again in the exponential multiplier down from 1.017 to 1.015, so pretty steady. First time under 100 new cases since 17 March

Expect it to be around 6195 today.

![42c4a973-1ab8-41e9-a7b4-4376e9af1cc5-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586479678317-42c4a973-1ab8-41e9-a7b4-4376e9af1cc5-image.png)

![28d8b8f7-91a7-4e7b-9698-b27b988c3ae1-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586479690763-28d8b8f7-91a7-4e7b-9698-b27b988c3ae1-image.png)


Predicted 6198, turned out to be 6203. Incredibly steady and predictable at the moment. For what its worth, the multiplier rose yesterday from its lowest point at 1.015 to 1.016 so effectively steady.

Hopefully we keep the total under 6293 today.

![1df25e58-9ec5-4504-b03e-7ea4fc3cc900-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586561594260-1df25e58-9ec5-4504-b03e-7ea4fc3cc900-image.png)

![44437119-acce-4532-b1c5-b46b1d3fc576-image.png](/assets/uploads/files/1586561605536-44437119-acce-4532-b1c5-b46b1d3fc576-image.png)

That is a pretty strong result if the Ruby Princess crew are included in those numbers!
 
Turkey's cases continuing to grow at the fastest rate of any country (percentage wise). Has doubled to over 40,000 in a few days.

Starting to see it really spike in central and South America too.
 
@TillLindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141408) said:
Turkey's cases continuing to grow at the fastest rate of any country (percentage wise). Has doubled to over 40,000 in a few days.

Starting to see it really spike in central and South America too.

Scratch that, Turkey almost 50,000. It will overtake China within a few days. I'm surprised that country isn't getting more attention.
 
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141358) said:
They’re just about to become the nation with the highest death rate. They’re at half a million now.

Highest *****reported***** death rate
 
@hammertime said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141416) said:
@GNR4LIFE said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141358) said:
They’re just about to become the nation with the highest death rate. They’re at half a million now.

Highest *****reported***** death rate

Also there's a big difference between death rate and death toll. They've got the highest (reported) death toll, but they're a long way off the highest death rate.
 
@TillLindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141408) said:
Turkey's cases continuing to grow at the fastest rate of any country (percentage wise). Has doubled to over 40,000 in a few days.

Starting to see it really spike in central and South America too.

Central/South America like African Nations are massive concerns. They have shortage of not just medical but general infrastructure & simple things we have readily available like water.

This is why I can’t see our international borders opening anytime soon.
 
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141443) said:
@TillLindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141408) said:
Turkey's cases continuing to grow at the fastest rate of any country (percentage wise). Has doubled to over 40,000 in a few days.

Starting to see it really spike in central and South America too.

Central/South America like African Nations are massive concerns. They have shortage of not just medical but general infrastructure & simple things we have readily available like water.

This is why I can’t see our international borders opening anytime soon.

Africa is going to be of really high concern, the outcome there could be horrible!
 
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141447) said:
@Mighty_Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141443) said:
@TillLindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141408) said:
Turkey's cases continuing to grow at the fastest rate of any country (percentage wise). Has doubled to over 40,000 in a few days.

Starting to see it really spike in central and South America too.

Central/South America like African Nations are massive concerns. They have shortage of not just medical but general infrastructure & simple things we have readily available like water.

This is why I can’t see our international borders opening anytime soon.

Africa is going to be of really high concern, the outcome there could be horrible!

Not least due to the high rate of tuberculosis there, which damages the lungs.
 
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.
 
@Furious1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141459) said:
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.

Get used to it. Shopping will be like this for at least the next 12 months. Survival of the fittest.
 
@Furious1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141459) said:
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.

Westsfields was fairly busy too, no where near Christmas levels but busy down near Woolies!
 
@Furious1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141459) said:
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.

Im in the Southern Highlands of NSW..went to Coles for tissues and food ….it was like the shop will never open again...geez 1 day its closed and the next opening day it is like Christmas has come early....I thought the hoarders bought everything out before,you should of seen the checkout ques,trollies choc a block full to the brim...
 
@TrueTiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141491) said:
@Furious1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141459) said:
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.

Im in the Southern Highlands of NSW..went to Coles for tissues and food ….it was like the shop will never open again...geez 1 day its closed and the next opening day it is like Christmas has come early....I thought the hoarders bought everything out before,you should of seen the checkout ques,trollies choc a block full to the brim...

The supermarkets were even open in Sydney yesterday and it was still like that this morning!
 
@TillLindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141408) said:
Turkey's cases continuing to grow at the fastest rate of any country (percentage wise). Has doubled to over 40,000 in a few days.

Starting to see it really spike in central and South America too.

I'd like to know how they get these numbers when the "false positive" test rate is over 80%
 
@Furious1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141459) said:
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.

The realisation is the public think this is not to serious , maybe on every media outlet pictures of mass graves in huge trenches from NYC should be shown nightly . The government is bankrupting the country and most think this is paid leave and a joke .. fast forward to August this is when the reality and the apathetic Aussie behaviour will end .. no more money from the gov ...no rent protection out the door ! no more job keeper .. no more job seeker .. the Gov going bankrupt.. thousands of business going under . There is no end game people at this stage and yet the population still wants to spread the virus amongst themselves! for the life of me why you would want to be surrounded by people in a closed space ... is the population that devoid of intelligence!
 
It’s gonna take at least a year for New York to recover and get back to normal. Nearly 160 thousand cases. Mass graves is not something you associate with a country like the US.
 
@Snake said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141504) said:
@Furious1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1141459) said:
Just went to pick up some dog food at Penrith. Busier than Christmas at the Supa Centre. Unbelievable. If it's like that in other places today than we may have only just begun in this epidemic.

The realisation is the public think this is not to serious , maybe on every media outlet pictures of mass graves in huge trenches from NYC should be shown nightly . The government is bankrupting the country and most think this is paid leave and a joke .. fast forward to August this is when the reality and the apathetic Aussie behaviour will end .. no more money from the gov ...no rent protection out the door ! no more job keeper .. no more job seeker .. the Gov going bankrupt.. thousands of business going under . There is no end game people at this stage and yet the population still wants to spread the virus amongst themselves! for the life of me why you would want to be surrounded by people in a closed space ... is the population that devoid of intelligence!

its good that you are able to remain positive throuhout this.
 
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