Coronavirus Outbreak

[cochise]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.

Studies of our data have suggested that Australia is detecting 93% of all cases and it is highly unlikely we have wide spread community transition!

I respectfully disagree with that figure.

https://theconversation.com/latest-coronavirus-modelling-suggests-australia-on-track-detecting-most-cases-but-we-must-keep-going-136518

 

[Tiger5150]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.

On what basis would you think that FG? Surely it is a mathematical truth that if you drastically ramp up the testing and the result is staying constant that it is empirical proof that the data is valid? If it is "Likely that true numbers are 10 x greater" surely as you increase tests, you get a linear increase in positives?.

 

[Tiger5150]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.

Studies of our data have suggested that Australia is detecting 93% of all cases and it is highly unlikely we have wide spread community transition!

I respectfully disagree with that figure.

On what basis?

 

[innsaneink]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

Please don't leave the forum. Keep posting mate but may I suggest try not take things personally.
Stay with us.... Even chatting here helps... As they say we all In this together

 

[innsaneink]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

I am sorry to learn of your situation. The transition from service life is difficult enough without having to deal with mental health issues. Anyway it is good to have you posting on the forum.

Another death in Tasmania. Thanks Ruby Princess.

Mate I’m fine , but thanks for your concern. Most AJs who return have a really tough time assimilating with regular society , and this can cause huge issues. Sure it can be the things you saw and did , but for many that’s not even the issue. From what I know , it’s the general attitude of regular people , their lack of a certain moral code , and the biggest one , a lack of purpose and belief in what your doing .
So this time of year may seem like a celebration of war for some , but for many , it’s a time of reflection and assessment . Which isn’t always positive .
That’s all I’m saying, speaking in absolutes , and grandstanding to me , just makes people look stupid , no matter how intelligent or in point the subject matter they’re saying .

What moral code are regular people lacking?

I will give you an example of difficulty I have with the code of behaviour
which is not the norm in the military.

The first day on the Track walking from Kokoda to Ower's Corner (north to south), is one of the toughest. It is 8 to 10 hours up hill mostly in full sun. It takes a lot out of you and you need to pace yourself. This young man took off and made it okay to Isurava village but the following day he was second from the rear and clearly staggering. I was last in column and stayed with him as he stopped, said he couldn't go on, vomited and shat his pants. His so-called mates pissed off and raced ahead leaving him alone in the New Guinea Jungle with a virtual stranger. They ended up being 4 hours ahead.

I did what any mate would do for a mate and got him to wash his shorts (bio degradable soap away from the water source), sit, drink staminade, gave him a pep talk and got him going. He powered home to complete the Track.

His mates failed to realise we were walking on sacred ground where mateship allowed men to survive and die with a mate around. Their. actions were foreign to me and the spirit of what the ANZAC code is all about.

Thank you for this analogy . I was struggling to reply without sounding like a wanker ex- army guy who thinks he’s better than the rest.

This type of behaviour flows into all types of regular day life . From the guy who decides he’s going to turn up late to a meeting which causes more meetings , or the guy who decides he’s going to tell the boss you took 5 mins longer for lunch , and so on it goes.
There’s a lot of bad blokes who were In The army for sure . And of course you could easily pull what I’m saying apart with examples of them , but the don’t go jack on your mates ethos , runs through all nooks and crannies of ex army guys . No matter what corps your in . It was THE most taboo thing to do .
And it is extremely hard to deal with , when culturally the real world operates the exact opposite .

They're called dogs inside... I reported a post a week ago which was slanderous and as I've seen in the past could've had the forum shut down.... it was hard for me to report it.
Maybe on 2nd thoughts I could've adressed the poster directly first... Hindsight ?

 

[cochise]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

I am sorry to learn of your situation. The transition from service life is difficult enough without having to deal with mental health issues. Anyway it is good to have you posting on the forum.

Another death in Tasmania. Thanks Ruby Princess.

Mate I’m fine , but thanks for your concern. Most AJs who return have a really tough time assimilating with regular society , and this can cause huge issues. Sure it can be the things you saw and did , but for many that’s not even the issue. From what I know , it’s the general attitude of regular people , their lack of a certain moral code , and the biggest one , a lack of purpose and belief in what your doing .
So this time of year may seem like a celebration of war for some , but for many , it’s a time of reflection and assessment . Which isn’t always positive .
That’s all I’m saying, speaking in absolutes , and grandstanding to me , just makes people look stupid , no matter how intelligent or in point the subject matter they’re saying .

What moral code are regular people lacking?

I will give you an example of difficulty I have with the code of behaviour
which is not the norm in the military.

The first day on the Track walking from Kokoda to Ower's Corner (north to south), is one of the toughest. It is 8 to 10 hours up hill mostly in full sun. It takes a lot out of you and you need to pace yourself. This young man took off and made it okay to Isurava village but the following day he was second from the rear and clearly staggering. I was last in column and stayed with him as he stopped, said he couldn't go on, vomited and shat his pants. His so-called mates pissed off and raced ahead leaving him alone in the New Guinea Jungle with a virtual stranger. They ended up being 4 hours ahead.

I did what any mate would do for a mate and got him to wash his shorts (bio degradable soap away from the water source), sit, drink staminade, gave him a pep talk and got him going. He powered home to complete the Track.

His mates failed to realise we were walking on sacred ground where mateship allowed men to survive and die with a mate around. Their. actions were foreign to me and the spirit of what the ANZAC code is all about.

Thank you for this analogy . I was struggling to reply without sounding like a wanker ex- army guy who thinks he’s better than the rest.

This type of behaviour flows into all types of regular day life . From the guy who decides he’s going to turn up late to a meeting which causes more meetings , or the guy who decides he’s going to tell the boss you took 5 mins longer for lunch , and so on it goes.
There’s a lot of bad blokes who were In The army for sure . And of course you could easily pull what I’m saying apart with examples of them , but the don’t go jack on your mates ethos , runs through all nooks and crannies of ex army guys . No matter what corps your in . It was THE most taboo thing to do .
And it is extremely hard to deal with , when culturally the real world operates the exact opposite .

They're called dogs inside... I reported a post a week ago which was slanderous and as I've seen in the past could've had the forum shut down.... it was hard for me to report it.
Maybe on 2nd thoughts I could've adressed the poster directly first... Hindsight ?

That post had to be dealt with otherwise we all could have lost this place, I think you did the right thing.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Time for Dutts to get back in his box. Increased biosecurity at airports post this pandemic? You couldn't have packed them in any tighter under Border Force supervision at the airport.

With what has emerged already in the Special Commission of Inquiry about the missing answer on the Federal MARS form dealing with passengers showing signs of COVID19 symptoms, I thought Dutts would remain in hiding.

The Commissioner didn't miss Dutts when he asked the head of Hotel ops on the ship if he witnessed a Border Force presence in the terminal! Of course we know the answer was no with no checking of passports.

 

[Deleted member 3518]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

Please don't leave the forum. Keep posting mate but may I suggest try not take things personally.
Stay with us.... Even chatting here helps... As they say we all In this together

Mate thank you for your concern, but this wasn’t me reaching out for help . It was me being an advocate for those who won’t ask for it .
And just being generally disgusted with the way some of our society have drilled down on anyone not complying with what they perceive is the right thing to do, based on their own bubble. Which , frustrates me , as , any opinion I have today , can and should be open to change at a moments notice , when presented with facts. I don’t look for confirmation bias . Or echo chambers. Which reading this thread really felt like that to me .
It reminds me of V for Vendetta , or any other story about Dystopias. As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.
The sooner we return to something resembling regular life , the better , as the longer it goes , the more brazen and justified these people will feel .
I’ts not conspiracies and nonsense either . It’s human nature . That’s why there’s so many books about it . And it’s happened before . The Spanish Inquisition, straight off the top of my head.

 

[cochise]

As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.

I think that is a little unfair, I really believe that the only reason anyone on here has embraced the restrictions is to prevent 10's of thousand of deaths. I don't want to be in the position most countries are with dealing with this, that's why Im following advice.

 

[Deleted member 3518]

As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.

I think that is a little unfair, I really believe that the only reason anyone on here has embraced the restrictions is to prevent 10's of thousand of deaths. I don't want to be in the position most countries are with dealing with this, that's why Im following advice.

I made a comment on society in general in the vacuum of this forum . If by reading that post , you say to yourself , maybe I am being a little too trigger happy , and it gives you a little more pause before ringing police on your neighbour for having the grandparents over , than my point has been validated .
Maybe no one on here reads it that way .maybe it’s everyone else not on the forum . But maybe it is !
People chucking house parties , is not what I’m referencing. I’m talking about reporting your neighbour for standing too close to someone . Which is happening. It all ties together with my posts yesterday about mental health .
It’s telling that in the pursuit of protecting humanity , many have shown their distinct lack of
Humanity.
Like I said yesterday . Just don’t think and speak in absolutes . As it offers nothing but division in the long run .

 

[Tim Sheens]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.


On what basis would you think that FG? Surely it is a mathematical truth that if you drastically ramp up the testing and the result is staying constant that it is empirical proof that the data is valid? If it is "Likely that true numbers are 10 x greater" surely as you increase tests, you get a linear increase in positives?.

I am not arguing the test results, rather that with expanding testing, a lower result is expected and should be at half the numbers or better with the new wider eligibility criteria.

Also stating that for every twenty positive cases found from the current testing, I expect that the number of actual number is a hundred or more infected as they have not been tested for whatever reason, asymptomatic or otherwise.

 

[happy_tiger]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.

Studies of our data have suggested that Australia is detecting 93% of all cases and it is highly unlikely we have wide spread community transition!

We can never prove it one way or the other and the highest possible levels of person to person infection are well and truly passed

 

[cochise]

As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.

I think that is a little unfair, I really believe that the only reason anyone on here has embraced the restrictions is to prevent 10's of thousand of deaths. I don't want to be in the position most countries are with dealing with this, that's why Im following advice.

I made a comment on society in general in the vacuum of this forum . If by reading that post , you say to yourself , maybe I am being a little too trigger happy , and it gives you a little more pause before ringing police on your neighbour for having the grandparents over , than my point has been validated .
Maybe no one on here reads it that way .maybe it’s everyone else not on the forum . But maybe it is !
People chucking house parties , is not what I’m referencing. I’m talking about reporting your neighbour for standing too close to someone . Which is happening. It all ties together with my posts yesterday about mental health .
It’s telling that in the pursuit of protecting humanity , many have shown their distinct lack of
Humanity.
Like I said yesterday . Just don’t think and speak in absolutes . As it offers nothing but division in the long run .

The lack of humanity is not necessarily the case, people standing on balconies and applauding frontline worker, the ringing of bugles throughout neighbourhoods, neighbours shopping for elderly in their community, I know I have got to know my neighbours better through this. We have all been sitting in our front yards of an afternoon, having a beer and a chat across the street. Humanity is there if you want to see it.

 

[Tiger5150]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

Please don't leave the forum. Keep posting mate but may I suggest try not take things personally.
Stay with us.... Even chatting here helps... As they say we all In this together

Mate thank you for your concern, but this wasn’t me reaching out for help . It was me being an advocate for those who won’t ask for it .
And just being generally disgusted with the way some of our society have drilled down on anyone not complying with what they perceive is the right thing to do, based on their own bubble. Which , frustrates me , as , any opinion I have today , can and should be open to change at a moments notice , when presented with facts. I don’t look for confirmation bias . Or echo chambers. Which reading this thread really felt like that to me .
It reminds me of V for Vendetta , or any other story about Dystopias. As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.
The sooner we return to something resembling regular life , the better , as the longer it goes , the more brazen and justified these people will feel .
I’ts not conspiracies and nonsense either . It’s human nature . That’s why there’s so many books about it . And it’s happened before . The Spanish Inquisition, straight off the top of my head.

I totally understand what you are talking about Strongee and if you read some of my posts, particularly in the Politics thread, Im of the opinion that this crisis suits the left of politics more than the right.....but IMO based on your posts, you need to leave room for others in your opinion ( I can see a hand ful of others rolling their eyes at the irony). More than one thing can be true at once and like Hangonaminute elsewhere in this thread, an opinion differing from yours does not at once equal your pre-judged definition.

 

[happy_tiger]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

I am sorry to learn of your situation. The transition from service life is difficult enough without having to deal with mental health issues. Anyway it is good to have you posting on the forum.

Another death in Tasmania. Thanks Ruby Princess.

Mate I’m fine , but thanks for your concern. Most AJs who return have a really tough time assimilating with regular society , and this can cause huge issues. Sure it can be the things you saw and did , but for many that’s not even the issue. From what I know , it’s the general attitude of regular people , their lack of a certain moral code , and the biggest one , a lack of purpose and belief in what your doing .
So this time of year may seem like a celebration of war for some , but for many , it’s a time of reflection and assessment . Which isn’t always positive .
That’s all I’m saying, speaking in absolutes , and grandstanding to me , just makes people look stupid , no matter how intelligent or in point the subject matter they’re saying .

What moral code are regular people lacking?

I will give you an example of difficulty I have with the code of behaviour
which is not the norm in the military.

The first day on the Track walking from Kokoda to Ower's Corner (north to south), is one of the toughest. It is 8 to 10 hours up hill mostly in full sun. It takes a lot out of you and you need to pace yourself. This young man took off and made it okay to Isurava village but the following day he was second from the rear and clearly staggering. I was last in column and stayed with him as he stopped, said he couldn't go on, vomited and shat his pants. His so-called mates pissed off and raced ahead leaving him alone in the New Guinea Jungle with a virtual stranger. They ended up being 4 hours ahead.

I did what any mate would do for a mate and got him to wash his shorts (bio degradable soap away from the water source), sit, drink staminade, gave him a pep talk and got him going. He powered home to complete the Track.

His mates failed to realise we were walking on sacred ground where mateship allowed men to survive and die with a mate around. Their. actions were foreign to me and the spirit of what the ANZAC code is all about.

Thank you for this analogy . I was struggling to reply without sounding like a wanker ex- army guy who thinks he’s better than the rest.

This type of behaviour flows into all types of regular day life . From the guy who decides he’s going to turn up late to a meeting which causes more meetings , or the guy who decides he’s going to tell the boss you took 5 mins longer for lunch , and so on it goes.
There’s a lot of bad blokes who were In The army for sure . And of course you could easily pull what I’m saying apart with examples of them , but the don’t go jack on your mates ethos , runs through all nooks and crannies of ex army guys . No matter what corps your in . It was THE most taboo thing to do .
And it is extremely hard to deal with , when culturally the real world operates the exact opposite .

They're called dogs inside... I reported a post a week ago which was slanderous and as I've seen in the past could've had the forum shut down.... it was hard for me to report it.
Maybe on 2nd thoughts I could've adressed the poster directly first... Hindsight ?

That post had to be dealt with otherwise we all could have lost this place, I think you did the right thing.

Can I ask what you are talking about .....

 

[TheDaBoss]

I think we can all agree on 1 thing

The virus sucks

 

[Tiger5150]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.


On what basis would you think that FG? Surely it is a mathematical truth that if you drastically ramp up the testing and the result is staying constant that it is empirical proof that the data is valid? If it is "Likely that true numbers are 10 x greater" surely as you increase tests, you get a linear increase in positives?.

I am not arguing the test results, rather that with expanding testing, a lower result is expected and should be at half the numbers or better with the new wider eligibility criteria.

Also stating that for every twenty positive cases found from the current testing, I expect that the number of actual number is a hundred or more infected as they have not been tested for whatever reason, asymptomatic or otherwise.

FG I think it totally understand what you are arguing, but I genuinely dont follow the logic or mathematics of what you are saying.

If Im understanding you correctly, you are saying that if they test and find 100 cases, there are probably 500 - 1000 cases really out in the wild. Is that an accurate representation of your argument?

If that is the case, surely if one day you test and get 100 tests and then the next day you DRASTICALLY increase the number of tests as well as randomise them to take on all comers, then you would get proportionally increased numbers?

To make my case....if you were right and 100 cases really indicates 500-1000 cases in the wild and if on day 1 we test 1000 people and get 100 positives, surely if tomorrow we test 1M people then we would expect to get at least 1000?

If today we test 1000 people and get 100 positives and tomorrow we test 1M and still get 100, doesnt that indicate that 100 is very close to the actual number?

 

[Deleted member 3518]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

Please don't leave the forum. Keep posting mate but may I suggest try not take things personally.
Stay with us.... Even chatting here helps... As they say we all In this together

Mate thank you for your concern, but this wasn’t me reaching out for help . It was me being an advocate for those who won’t ask for it .
And just being generally disgusted with the way some of our society have drilled down on anyone not complying with what they perceive is the right thing to do, based on their own bubble. Which , frustrates me , as , any opinion I have today , can and should be open to change at a moments notice , when presented with facts. I don’t look for confirmation bias . Or echo chambers. Which reading this thread really felt like that to me .
It reminds me of V for Vendetta , or any other story about Dystopias. As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.
The sooner we return to something resembling regular life , the better , as the longer it goes , the more brazen and justified these people will feel .
I’ts not conspiracies and nonsense either . It’s human nature . That’s why there’s so many books about it . And it’s happened before . The Spanish Inquisition, straight off the top of my head.


I totally understand what you are talking about Strongee and if you read some of my posts, particularly in the Politics thread, Im of the opinion that this crisis suits the left of politics more than the right.....but IMO based on your posts, you need to leave room for others in your opinion ( I can see a hand ful of others rolling their eyes at the irony). More than one thing can be true at once and like Hangonaminute elsewhere in this thread, an opinion differing from yours does not at once equal your pre-judged definition.

I think this is where you and @cochise are getting lost in my comments . I’m taking what both of you are saying as a given , and moving to the next point of the conversation. It’s really hard to have discussions in text , as it can be misread and breezes over etc. as I know it may seem like I’m way more emotional and negative than is in actuality.
Where as I’m merely speaking directly to the source of what I perceive is an imbalanced discussion .
Ie. to someone with issues , being alone is way more of a threat than covid. So to me I say , it’s about risk assessment . They perceive thier risk isn’t covid but isolation. To which you guys say , well covid is a huge threat to the world so bad luck .
And I think that lacks any form of nuance . And I try as best as I can to restrict my judgement .

Because to you covid is number 1 and assume that position , to which I agree.but to that person , the need to hang with the parents for a few hours might be enough to get them through . But they are perceived as a Lepper by many .
And that’s what I can’t get my head around

 

[cochise]

Someone mentioned Vitamin B ...where has anyone in all of this been told we can't exercise .....or even sunbathe in your back yard

People don’t have backyards mate . And many are listening to the media , agenda driven panic merchants , who just want to drive hysteria for the clicks .
So many people , especially woman , who IMO have an already in built , genetic flight response , just are hiding inside .
To dismiss this , is naive at best. Many people are too scared to go outside at all , which like you said is over reacting , but it’s still happening.
Until the general consensus is lift the restrictions , these types , which due to some mental health issues in my family recently , Im starting to be more aware of , are really at risk.
And as the majority of our nation live in cities , and the general isolation , people tend to feel in the biggest cities , this is a huge issue.
Domestic violence , alchohol use , online gambling , are through the roof. This isn’t good , as a potential on going social issue post COVID.

I agree, there are many bad things as a result of restrictions, but the alternatives are worse and today being ANZAC day, it reminds us of who is most likely to be affected by this. Both by solitude for recent service personnel and if we don't continue social distancing on a suitable scale as things improve, those that served in Vietnam, Korea etcetera and the children that grew up in the second world war, along with the few remaining survivors of that conflict, it often means direct death.

I am surrounded with the mental health issues you alluded to at home and helping out my very affected sister daily, so I completely understand your concerns, but I am not willing to sacrifice my parents, along with their generation and similar others for the sake of more freedoms.

Mate , I’m 1 of those people . 3 people I served with topped themselves in the last 3 months.
And there’s are at least another 2 , we are really concerned about , as they won’t answer calls and no one knows exactly where they live , since this kicked off.
There were over 3000 deaths in 2019 from suicide , just knowing from the conversations I’ve had , we all just want support and feel like there’s none out there. VVCS is a joke , and the waiting list now is like 6 months just to get a call back.
I didn’t want to talk about this directly , but I am so concerned about days like today , hence my posting today. And that’s just returned serviceman.
There’s so many vulnerable people , out there who can’t just “go sit on their balcony”
The cure can’t be worse than the cause.

Please don't leave the forum. Keep posting mate but may I suggest try not take things personally.
Stay with us.... Even chatting here helps... As they say we all In this together

Mate thank you for your concern, but this wasn’t me reaching out for help . It was me being an advocate for those who won’t ask for it .
And just being generally disgusted with the way some of our society have drilled down on anyone not complying with what they perceive is the right thing to do, based on their own bubble. Which , frustrates me , as , any opinion I have today , can and should be open to change at a moments notice , when presented with facts. I don’t look for confirmation bias . Or echo chambers. Which reading this thread really felt like that to me .
It reminds me of V for Vendetta , or any other story about Dystopias. As this forum is a reflection of the rest of society. And you all should be very concerned about how easily , some , including some of you, have embraced this to an almost manic enforcement . Sure most because they want to protect the ones they love , but for some , it’s about having power over influencing other people . Nothing at all to do with covid.
The sooner we return to something resembling regular life , the better , as the longer it goes , the more brazen and justified these people will feel .
I’ts not conspiracies and nonsense either . It’s human nature . That’s why there’s so many books about it . And it’s happened before . The Spanish Inquisition, straight off the top of my head.


I totally understand what you are talking about Strongee and if you read some of my posts, particularly in the Politics thread, Im of the opinion that this crisis suits the left of politics more than the right.....but IMO based on your posts, you need to leave room for others in your opinion ( I can see a hand ful of others rolling their eyes at the irony). More than one thing can be true at once and like Hangonaminute elsewhere in this thread, an opinion differing from yours does not at once equal your pre-judged definition.


I think this is where you and @cochise are getting lost in my comments . I’m taking what both of you are saying as a given , and moving to the next point of the conversation. It’s really hard to have discussions in text , as it can be misread and breezes over etc. as I know it may seem like I’m way more emotional and negative than is in actuality.
Where as I’m merely speaking directly to the source of what I perceive is an imbalanced discussion .
Ie. to someone with issues , being alone is way more of a threat than covid. So to me I say , it’s about risk assessment . They perceive thier risk isn’t covid but isolation. To which you guys say , well covid is a huge threat to the world so bad luck .
And I think that lacks any form of nuance . And I try as best as I can to restrict my judgement .

Because to you covid is number 1 and assume that position , to which I agree.but to that person , the need to hang with the parents for a few hours might be enough to get them through . But they are perceived as a Lepper by many .
And that’s what I can’t get my head around

I 100% get that mate, understand you fully now. In talking about the importance you are talking to the importance that an individual puts on these 2 crisis' and how other perceive their action because of that. With a lot of that I am in agreement mate. I am devastated for the people that these restrictions are hurting.

 

[Tim Sheens]

I hope that the wider testing would have that number above more resembling a result of double or so of that number from week or more ago when the criteria was much stricter. Still, it is likely that the true numbers of transmission would be five to ten times and possibly greater than yesterday's figure.

On that basis and that we had already factored in a six month program, I would prefer that we maintain the status quo for another couple of weeks and reassess.


On what basis would you think that FG? Surely it is a mathematical truth that if you drastically ramp up the testing and the result is staying constant that it is empirical proof that the data is valid? If it is "Likely that true numbers are 10 x greater" surely as you increase tests, you get a linear increase in positives?.

I am not arguing the test results, rather that with expanding testing, a lower result is expected and should be at half the numbers or better with the new wider eligibility criteria.

Also stating that for every twenty positive cases found from the current testing, I expect that the number of actual number is a hundred or more infected as they have not been tested for whatever reason, asymptomatic or otherwise.


FG I think it totally understand what you are arguing, but I genuinely dont follow the logic or mathematics of what you are saying.

If Im understanding you correctly, you are saying that if they test and find 100 cases, there are probably 500 - 1000 cases really out in the wild. Is that an accurate representation of your argument?

If that is the case, surely if one day you test and get 100 tests and then the next day you DRASTICALLY increase the number of tests as well as randomise them to take on all comers, then you would get proportionally increased numbers?

To make my case....if you were right and 100 cases really indicates 500-1000 cases in the wild and if on day 1 we test 1000 people and get 100 positives, surely if tomorrow we test 1M people then we would expect to get at least 1000?

If today we test 1000 people and get 100 positives and tomorrow we test 1M and still get 100, doesnt that indicate that 100 is very close to the actual number?

Yes, yes and if the testing criteria is equal, yes, but the scope is much different than it was.