Coronavirus Outbreak

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@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested

I hope that you are joking because if you are not you are putting everyone who knows you at potential risk of infection.It would be an act of complete irresponsibility.
 
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126059) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested

I hope that you are joking because if you are not you are putting everyone who knows you at potential risk of infection.It would be an act of complete irresponsibility.

Not if the person was assuming they do have it, and taking the precautions and isolation measures as if they do have it.
 
@JD-Tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126061) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126059) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested

I hope that you are joking because if you are not you are putting everyone who knows you at potential risk of infection.It would be an act of complete irresponsibility.

Not if the person was assuming they do have it, and taking the precautions and isolation measures as if they do have it.

It's still good to have it checked though so we can obtain accurate data.
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?
 
@old_man_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126043) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125989) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125930) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125906) said:
I’m not even sure if I’m looking at it in the right way, so I wanted to put it to people on this forum that know more than me on how to analyse the numbers when it comes to these things.

Frankly none of those numbers matter to your average person. They are the numbers that governments and health authorities look at.

What difference does it make to a singular person if the mortality rate is 3.58% or 7.52%? They are just averages...



However, if those numbers, applied to indigenous Australians they would matter. I think I get it ??

https://www.amhf.org.au/close_the_gap_3_quick_facts_about_indigenous_male_life_expectancy

Really funny mate. I'm sure that from a health perspective bring aboriginal is much worse than covid.

Please let us all know how you were just joking and it's actually you under threat from communists.


Thanks for that OMT, very encouraging signs. Great to see.
 
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126033) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125989) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125930) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125906) said:
I’m not even sure if I’m looking at it in the right way, so I wanted to put it to people on this forum that know more than me on how to analyse the numbers when it comes to these things.

Frankly none of those numbers matter to your average person. They are the numbers that governments and health authorities look at.

What difference does it make to a singular person if the mortality rate is 3.58% or 7.52%? They are just averages...



However, if those numbers, applied to indigenous Australians they would matter. I think I get it ??

Are you talking about indigenous with COVID-19, or are you attempting to make a pointless correlation between this and general indigenous concerns?

My argument was don't worry to much about early COVID-19 data when applying to individual circumstance. What does it matter really if the mortality rate is 2% or 4% or 6%? It's serious, take it seriously, consider your own situation seriously.

Statistics are very important when dealing with populations, i.e. if you are a policy-maker. That's when rich data can help direct your resources. For example where are road crashes most likely, what is the major source of morbidity or mortality in indigenous populations etc.

Yeh, thanks mate, I am taking it seriously. I’m now isolated as of today. Getting supplies delivered by family.
Take care all.
 
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125979) said:
I guess the other question is this ...will it be possible to catch the virus twice ...or does the body build its own immunity

If you have 2 heads there is twice as much chance of contracting it apparently.
 
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126078) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125979) said:
I guess the other question is this ...will it be possible to catch the virus twice ...or does the body build its own immunity

If you have 2 heads there is twice as much chance of contracting it apparently.

Happy licks cane toads ..he’s immune from any viruses ?
The only thing that’ll bring him down is his missus ?
 
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126080) said:
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126078) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125979) said:
I guess the other question is this ...will it be possible to catch the virus twice ...or does the body build its own immunity

If you have 2 heads there is twice as much chance of contracting it apparently.

Happy licks cane toads ..he’s immune from any viruses ?
The only thing that’ll bring him down is his missus ?

You have probably just started a stampede of Queenslanders racing around licking canetoads.Hopefully Dutton is leading them
 
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126082) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126080) said:
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126078) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125979) said:
I guess the other question is this ...will it be possible to catch the virus twice ...or does the body build its own immunity

If you have 2 heads there is twice as much chance of contracting it apparently.

Happy licks cane toads ..he’s immune from any viruses ?
The only thing that’ll bring him down is his missus ?

You have probably just started a stampede of Queenslanders racing around licking canetoads.Hopefully Dutton is leading them

?
Imagine if that was the cure ...
@happy_tiger (cane toad farmer ) would be an instant millionaire !
 
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126071) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested

Me too Lol
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126087) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126071) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

What’s the cure, mate? Speak up...

Btw I’m in Chatswood and work at a hotel
 
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126087) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126071) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

Mate I'm I Haymarket 3 times a week, if you are worried get tested to put your mind at ease but I doubt you have it from 7 weeks ago.
 
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126097) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126087) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126071) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

Mate I'm I Haymarket 3 times a week, if you are worried get tested to put your mind at ease but I doubt you have it from 7 weeks ago.

Have the exact same symptoms tbh... Haymarket is probably as bad - but Chatswood, Rhodes and Ryde are practically ghost towns ATM.
 
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126083) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126082) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126080) said:
@Fade-To-Black said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126078) said:
@happy_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125979) said:
I guess the other question is this ...will it be possible to catch the virus twice ...or does the body build its own immunity

If you have 2 heads there is twice as much chance of contracting it apparently.

Happy licks cane toads ..he’s immune from any viruses ?
The only thing that’ll bring him down is his missus ?

You have probably just started a stampede of Queenslanders racing around licking canetoads.Hopefully Dutton is leading them

?
Imagine if that was the cure ...
@happy_tiger (cane toad farmer ) would be an instant millionaire !

Hoards them in his bunker 3 toads per dunny role
 
@Tigerboy said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126094) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126087) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126071) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

What’s the cure, mate? Speak up...

Btw I’m in Chatswood and work at a hotel




https://immunizelabs.com/pages/ionic-colloidal-silver

I started with this and then read a paper on it I will give it a crack nothing to lose
 
@Tigerboy said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126099) said:
@cochise said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126097) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126087) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126071) said:
@Regan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126055) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126038) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126034) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126030) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126025) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126018) said:
@dazza65 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125995) said:
For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

Mate I'm I Haymarket 3 times a week, if you are worried get tested to put your mind at ease but I doubt you have it from 7 weeks ago.

Have the exact same symptoms tbh... Haymarket is probably as bad - but Chatswood, Rhodes and Ryde are practically ghost towns ATM.

I'm in Ryde, Chatswood and Eastwood a couple of times a week as well and you are right they are empty. Chinese people pretty much disappear during these types of events. The restaurants in those areas are almost empty atm.
 
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126024) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126006) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125989) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125930) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125906) said:
I’m not even sure if I’m looking at it in the right way, so I wanted to put it to people on this forum that know more than me on how to analyse the numbers when it comes to these things.

Frankly none of those numbers matter to your average person. They are the numbers that governments and health authorities look at.

What difference does it make to a singular person if the mortality rate is 3.58% or 7.52%? They are just averages...



However, if those numbers, applied to indigenous Australians they would matter. I think I get it ??


Edit; @twentyforty, I truly want to understand where such comments come from, so I ask what was your motivation/line of thinking that had you bringing up that particular part of our community?

I also hope that one day you and others will "get it". That being, that your post and similar is a major reason why the NRL, along with so many other institutions, promote inclusiveness with the hope that one day, the culminative result of such education will eventually sink in.


Gosh, formerguest you really need to lighten up. You are so ready to see the bad in people that you see it everywhere.
My post was not directed to you, so I will readily forgive your rude accusation.
My post was directed to jirskyr and his different view of statistics, in relation to when they matter and when they don’t.
You can read his other post at 310 on the nrl ad.
It’s for this very reason that most footy fans don’t want politics in sport.

A good while back, I heard someone say words to the effect of "every time you walk past or ignore things in life such as racism or domestic violence when you see or hear them without challenging, then you condone it", those words resonated very strongly with me, so I no longer do so.

On here, sometimes I see a mention of something that could be misconstrued, but I will not tackle such if that person has not been exhibiting form in that or similar areas.
 
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126106) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126024) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1126006) said:
@twentyforty said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125989) said:
@jirskyr said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125930) said:
@weststigers said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1125906) said:
I’m not even sure if I’m looking at it in the right way, so I wanted to put it to people on this forum that know more than me on how to analyse the numbers when it comes to these things.

Frankly none of those numbers matter to your average person. They are the numbers that governments and health authorities look at.

What difference does it make to a singular person if the mortality rate is 3.58% or 7.52%? They are just averages...



However, if those numbers, applied to indigenous Australians they would matter. I think I get it ??


Edit; @twentyforty, I truly want to understand where such comments come from, so I ask what was your motivation/line of thinking that had you bringing up that particular part of our community?

I also hope that one day you and others will "get it". That being, that your post and similar is a major reason why the NRL, along with so many other institutions, promote inclusiveness with the hope that one day, the culminative result of such education will eventually sink in.


Gosh, formerguest you really need to lighten up. You are so ready to see the bad in people that you see it everywhere.
My post was not directed to you, so I will readily forgive your rude accusation.
My post was directed to jirskyr and his different view of statistics, in relation to when they matter and when they don’t.
You can read his other post at 310 on the nrl ad.
It’s for this very reason that most footy fans don’t want politics in sport.

A good while back, I heard someone say words to the effect of "every time you walk past or ignore things in life such as racism or domestic violence when you see or hear them without challenging, then you condone it", those words resonated very strongly with me, so I no longer do so.

On here, sometimes I see a mention of something that could be misconstrued, but I will not tackle such if that person has not been exhibiting form in that or similar areas.


If that is not an apology then you need to show that you are a decent person and tell me what you saw in my post that you thought was racist. I believe you are a decent person trying to be the best you can be like the rest of us. Pray tell?
 
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