Coronavirus Outbreak

[Pascoes_barber]

NSW was only the 'gold standard' according to a complete and utter moron, who unfortunately also has the role of Prime Minister.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

 

[earl]

One other point that I'm going to keep making is that the anti-vaxxer brigade are completely and utterly wrong.

The data across the world show vaccinations protect you.

The data coming through with people in ICU/dying etc is clearly reflecting this reality.

I think any posts trying to state that COVID is a scam or vaccines don't work should be deleted immediately.

Facts added:-

50 in intensive care
44 unvaccinated
4 first dose of AZ
2 first dose of Pfizer
0 fully vaccinated

Another death - unvaccinated.

I think it's morally and it should be criminally wrong to post disinformation.

 

[earl]

At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

 

[Tiger5150]

At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

 

[Papacito]

Covid in workplaces is driving numbers up massively.

Just today I've heard of a at least two acquaintances in so called "essential industries" in Sydney that have had outbreaks.

Both were sparked by casual workers working across many sites.

Alarmingly both companies have really good workplace safety arrangements.

 

[BZN]

Without getting political about it, I think that the proposal to provide $300 for everyone who comes forward to get vaccinated by December 1st would be money well spent and likely not only bring forward many that would not get vaccinated otherwise, but saving the nation many more billions whilst bringing the nation back quicker, both health and economy wise with a brighter Xmas to boot.

Incentives will almost certainly come at some point and I say that there is no time like the present, providing of course there is the supply. Of course early adopters should not be discriminated.

$300 for hesitant or anti-vaccers is a great idea.
$150 for 1st jab then $150 for 2nd jab to make sure they are fully vaccinated.

 

[TillLindemann]

At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

Mate I don't think there is any reasonable comparison with flu and I don't think your less than 1% mortality rate is correct. Yesterday there were 704,000 infections and 10,392 deaths globally, according to worldometer. Which is above 1% to start with. But deaths also lag infections, understandably, so those 10,392 deaths correlate to a few weeks ago, when infections were closer to 500,000 than 700,00.

 

[swag_tiger]

Where are the people getting all this misinformation in the first place? E.g. this is to turn Australia into a dictatorship.

 

[mrem]

I ask that we open our minds to multiple factors to address a complex question.

Mate - you can see what happens when you do this. You've formed your opinion which is cool.

Let's not try and hide the reality of the situation though. It might be unpalatable but opening up is going to lead to increased deaths. We can mitigate this via vaccines but the political disinformation being propagated is going to make this less effective.

My mind is though completely open. I understand where you are coming from.

And what exactly is my opinion?

You want our governments to implement less lockdowns/restrictions that what has been occurring.

If I'm wrong please correct me but try and be transparent.

@TillLindemann
I'll answer both here.
I think I have made my views pretty clear, but I'll state them here .

I believe policy decisions should be made from the best available evidence. The Covid response is more than just Covid deaths per million. It is about how our lives are affected by it holistically. Simply correlating one variable against another is not strong evidence, don't take my word on this, there a multiple textbooks on this stuff. There are some simple control variables that one could use and the data has a high degree of accuracy. I believe including sensible control variables would improve the outcomes of the model significantly.

It is my opinion that the public discourse is overly simplistic, which can ultimately drive policy responses. These policy responses might be popular but sub-optimal. My opinion is that we should take into account all the evidence. I think there is reasonable evidence that a relationship exists between economic activity and health outcomes, therefore we need to have a joint discussion about the economy and health because they are linked. Stating that it is health vs the economy is completely ignorant of the data. I think there is a relationship between harsh lockdowns and mental health, which can have very long-term implications.

I also think there is an inter-temporal issue at play too. Elimination might be a great strategy in the short-run but mitigation might be better in the long-run.

It might be the elimination strategy is optimal, great we know that for next time. But what if it is not optimal? If it is sub-optimal, people will be dying unnecessarily. It is my opinion that we will never know unless we are able to ask hard questions and challenge the status quo.

 

[Papacito]

At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

Mate I don't think there is any reasonable comparison with flu and I don't think your less than 1% mortality rate is correct. Yesterday there were 704,000 infections and 10,392 deaths globally, according to worldometer. Which is above 1% to start with. But deaths also lag infections, understandably, so those 10,392 deaths correlate to a few weeks ago, when infections were closer to 500,000 than 700,00.

Even if you equate covid to the flu (which it isn't) you only need to look back to h1n1 to see the massive impact it had on the health system.

 

[Papacito]

Without getting political about it, I think that the proposal to provide $300 for everyone who comes forward to get vaccinated by December 1st would be money well spent and likely not only bring forward many that would not get vaccinated otherwise, but saving the nation many more billions whilst bringing the nation back quicker, both health and economy wise with a brighter Xmas to boot.

Incentives will almost certainly come at some point and I say that there is no time like the present, providing of course there is the supply. Of course early adopters should not be discriminated.

$300 for hesitant or anti-vaccers is a great idea.
$150 for 1st jab then $150 for 2nd jab to make sure they are fully vaccinated.

I know more than a few people who'd go from anti-vax to vaccinated almost overnight if $300 was on offer.

 

[innsaneink]

Covid in workplaces is driving numbers up massively.

Just today I've heard of a at least two acquaintances in so called "essential industries" in Sydney that have had outbreaks.

Both were sparked by casual workers working across many sites.

Alarmingly both companies have really good workplace safety arrangements.

What types of business?

 

[innsaneink]

Where are the people getting all this misinformation in the first place? E.g. this is to turn Australia into a dictatorship.

Right here

The interwank

 

[Papacito]

Covid in workplaces is driving numbers up massively.

Just today I've heard of a at least two acquaintances in so called "essential industries" in Sydney that have had outbreaks.

Both were sparked by casual workers working across many sites.

Alarmingly both companies have really good workplace safety arrangements.

What types of business?

Warehouse/logistics type businesses.

 

[swag_tiger]

This a conversation I had with someone

Me: It's amazing how many people think this is just a flu or doesn't even warrant any sort of restrictions.

Guy1: because it doesn't 🐑

Me: Pat McGhee so you're willing to let die let alone people in there 40's, 30's and 20's

Guy1: Sure am

 

[Pascoes_barber]

I guess ultimately as long as everyone is provided the **opportunity** to get vaccinated, people will still make their own choices. And in some cases learn that those choices can have dire consequences.

 

[BZN]

I normally stay out of here but thought this was worth posting for you.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2021/06/25/first-australian-covid-19-dna-vaccine-trial-commences-.html

[/QUOTE]

 

[tony soprano]

Without getting political about it, I think that the proposal to provide $300 for everyone who comes forward to get vaccinated by December 1st would be money well spent and likely not only bring forward many that would not get vaccinated otherwise, but saving the nation many more billions whilst bringing the nation back quicker, both health and economy wise with a brighter Xmas to boot.

Incentives will almost certainly come at some point and I say that there is no time like the present, providing of course there is the supply. Of course early adopters should not be discriminated.

$300 for hesitant or anti-vaccers is a great idea.
$150 for 1st jab then $150 for 2nd jab to make sure they are fully vaccinated.

I know more than a few people who'd go from anti-vax to vaccinated almost overnight if $300 was on offer.

350 and u have a deal

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Well, NSW numbers are up again today and it's the same old spiel from Gladys...The lockdown hasn't worked, in so far as she could have, and should have gone harder with it.

I'll be surprised if she relaxes any restrictions next month.

You think we're looking at a long lockdown?

My sister in law has a wedding booked for next month.
Wonder how that'll go...


Hunter/Newcastle entered a 7 snap lockdown.
I have no doubts it will be extended.

I just can't see us getting out of this Demps. Maybe it's just my frustration at the whole thing with the way it's playing out, but it's clear people who have the virus either aren't aware, or don't care because they are still out in the community and it's continuing to spread, which means resources will be spread thinner, reducing their effectiveness.

100%

Rough times ahead.
Craving some normality.

But yeah, people need to follow the rules.

It’ll be a long off season for us footy heads

That's when I do all my bushwalking (when the cricket's not on.)

Just got back from the Falls not long ago. First time down the bottom, an absolutely beautiful spot.